Return to Home Page 1997 India’s Middle Class: Real or Fiction? Feasible or Not? Paul Herbig Executive Summary India which is a land of contrasts, boasts of the largest middle class population in any single country . Though there is no clear cut definition of this class of consumers yet the one provided by World bank can be a starting point. The World bank estimated the Indian annual per capita GNP for 1991 to be $330(US). However , this definition can be misleading especially when we begin to make comparisons of the dollar denominated per capita income with the per capita income of the American middle class. Due consideration needs to be given to the purchasing power of the rupee and the cost of living in India . However we may choose to define it , the fact remains that this new breed of consumers is changing the economic , social and political complexion of the region. They are better educated , marrying later and having fewer children. They are people who want sophisticated products. They live a fast paced life so anything that leads to greater convenience is welcome. They demand efficient private and public services. They want firm , responsible government with a host of civil liberties including the right to work and live where they wish and freedom of information and travel. This growing class of Indians who are growing at the rate of 10% per year present a different view of India with their changed lifestyles a more westernized attitude more secular thinking and above all , the means to spend for their convenience. ‘Quality of life’ not just ‘buy , buy’ is their guiding principle and this is what marketers need to understand. The increasing consumption patterns and the growing demand for consumer durables with an improved standard of living lend ample support to the existence of the middle class in India. And the rapid expansion anticipated in its size along with high economic growth rates promise to open new markets and rapidly expand existing ones for both mass products as well as premium products and durables - a reality that should make the marketers of the world sit up ! Introduction ‘India - a pluralistic society of 900 million people is a picture of contrasts. While it is the 12th largest industrial power in the world it is also the 15th poorest nation in terms of per capita income. It has the third largest pool of scientific and technical manpower but it also has the dubious distinction of having the largest number of illiterates and unemployed. The affluence in the urban areas coexists with pathetic poverty in the rural India. Technology ranges from bullock carts with modern wheels to space satellite capability’. ( Jain , p 83 , 1993 ) The diversity is reflected in the markets for consumer products. Class is difficult to define in India. Income by itself does not define an individuals class. Purchase behavior is related to cultural conditioning , location , source of income and to some extent education and occupation. One income category will contain very disparate purchase behaviors. Despite the low incomes in India there exists in India (rural as well as urban) a large class of consumers for packaged and branded consumer goods , home appliances , entertainment electronics and personal transport as well as radio , television , telecommunication and transport services. It is the production and sales of these goods that mainly sustained the annual industrial growth of over 7% in the 1980s.(http:// www.mq.edu.au:80/untpdc/incubator/ind/tpde1/doing bus.html) This consumer class is widely termed as the Indian middle class and has been a matter of debate in terms of its size and true market potential. The spectacular growth in the market for consumer goods reflects a significant rise in income levels and rapid changes in the lifestyles of this large segment of the population. While the spending patterns and buying intensity of this class of consumers do not compare with those in the industrialized societies , the sheer size of this segment represents an enormous market potential for a variety of consumer goods. The purpose of this paper is to define and verify or deny the existence of this fabled Indian middle class and evaluate its true market potential in terms of purchasing capability and thus the opportunities it holds for the marketers both foreign and domestic. Definition - Middle class According to the World Bank estimates the Indian annual per capita GNP for 1991 was US $330, which seems extremely low. But given the cost of living in India these dollar denominated income estimates can be misleading as there is a huge difference between the purchasing power of rupee in India and the dollar in the USA. As an illustration an average meal in a mid range restaurant in India would cost Rs 50-60 which is almost less than two dollars and would scarcely buy a coke and a burger in a bigger city in the US. Therefore these estimates should be considered with due caution as they would hugely misrepresent and underestimate the true number of the middle class if such a measure is used. The National Council for Applied Economic Research ( NCAER) , a government sponsored research organization , puts the figure at roughly 500 million based on a total of 100 million watches sold in India and an average of five people per family. NCAER got this figure by assuming that there is only one watch per household and all members of the household are potential buyers of reasonably sophisticated manufactured goods. According to another survey the number of people who ask for products by brand name yields 20-40 million families or 100-200 million people. Soft drink companies on the other hand estimate there are 350 million Indians who have the wherewithal to buy three to four soft drinks a year. However all these surveys do not take into account the vast amount of black money or undeclared income and wealth that many Indians possess and it is estimated to comprise 20-30% of the GDP. Most of this money is in the hands of the middle and upper income groups. Even based on the statistics that fail to take this black money into account , it is clear that Indians are able to move up the income ladder. ( Far Eastern Economic Review : 44-46 . 1993 , Jan 14). This can be corroborated by the following statistics. Aggregate expenditure grew at an annual rate of 13% in the 1980's at current prices. The highest growth rate was recorded by expenditure on transport and communication , which increased by about 21% per annum . Expenditure on household appliances , consumer goods and services rose by about 14% per annum , which reflects a perceptible shift in consumer spending from primary products to percentage of manufactured goods and services. Significant shifts were also evident in consumer spending on food and beverages. The share of milk products fruits and vegetables in aggregate expenditure increased from 15% in 1981-82 to 17% in 1990-91. In the durable and services sector the sale of the passenger cars, motor cycles and air conditioners each increased four times between 1980-81 and 190-91 - a compound annual growth rate of nearly 15%. Consumption of mass consumer products such as man made fabric , detergents , toothpaste , shaving blades etc., saw annual increase of between 10% and 15% over this period. Coupled with this the market for the services also increased . Telephone connections increased at 8.4% per year against the world average of 5% yet the consumers on the waiting list actually increased to 2.3 million by 1990-91. Television could be another yardstick. Some 33 million households in 1990 owned TV sets with an average of 6 persons per household. Further the growth rate of the ownership of television sets suggests that the middle class is expanding by approximately 10 - 12 million a year. All these facts and figures go a long way in indicating that a class of consumers has emerged which has acquired the means to afford these goods and this class of consumers has been termed as the ‘Indian middle class’. Rise of Middle the Class A wide and diverse spectrum of factors helped shape the taste and lifestyles of a market segment that finally came to be recognized as the middle class. 1. The sustained economic growth of 5.5% per year the 1980s followed by the era of liberalization in the early 1990s exposed the middle class consumers to the goods and quality they had been yearning for. 2. The increased use of mechanized farming along with government policies of farm subsidies and support prices helped improve the farm(rural) incomes (largely untaxed) and thus creating a rural class with more money to spend. Added to this the efforts of the government to bring these areas under national TV network created a new awareness among this segment . 3. Color TVS that came to India in 1982 with the advent of Asian Games together with the national hook up which beamed programs throughout India created a new awareness among the Indian consumers . Marketers got the opportunity to reach a diverse population who were at the same time bound by a common television network. 4. The Hong Kong based Star TV which enjoyed a viewer ship of nearly 3.3 million households within a year of its introduction has a significant contribution in changing the lifestyles of the Indians. Exposures to soaps like ‘Bold and Beautiful’ and MTV has helped raise the aspirations of these people . This is further supported by the increased use of advertising campaigns giving more choice and information to the consumers. Whether it is a chewing gum , condoms or coke , average middle class consumers were made to realize that they could aspire to better things and better quality which used to be the domain of the super rich. 5. The liberalization witnessed a substantial onslaught of foreign companies thus creating more employment opportunities and opening other fields of employment . As a result there was an increase in the category of households having grater number of salary earners , professionals and businessmen. This period also witnessed a rise in pay packages and increasing the disposable incomes of the professionals . 6. The improved literacy rate of women especially in the middle class section has added a new dimension to the workforce which is though still male dominated. This has lead to the emergence of multiple income households especially in the urban areas and is reflected by the changed lifestyles of these people , now demanding more convenience products. 7. The growing number of Indians who work in the Gulf (UAE and other Arab nations ) as unskilled and skilled labor increased especially after the Gulf war. This has had a definite impact in changing the income levels . 8. As a result of opportunities available in the urban areas there has also been a substantial increase in the urban population from 160 million in 1981 to 236 million in 1992-93. Once these people settle they adapt to the urban lifestyle and increase the market potential. 9. The emergence of consumer financing business for durables from negligible levels in 1980's to about Rs 13.5 billion by 1989 has been responsible for a spurt in consumer spending . Earlier a professional even with a steady job would have to have the whole money in cash before making a purchase like a car which restricted the market size. 10. While corruption in the private sector is negligible , yet the government sector which employs the majority of population leaves lot of room for corruption . These people who essentially form a part of the middle class are always ready to spend this additional income on consumer durables. The new government is launching a scheme to mop up Rs 25000 to 30,000 crores ( 1 crore is equal to 10 million) black money. It is estimated that Indians have about $180 billion in Swiss banks alone while Rs 200,000 crores still remains in the country.(Indian Express , Feb 27 1997). And this money is all for spending. Middle class family- a graphic picture. ‘The middle class is comprised of families who do not possess inherited family status or unusual wealth. Their social and economic position is achieved primarily by their occupation , career orientation and skills. It includes professionals , independent businessmen , corporate managers , professors , bureaucrats and skilled workers . In a nutshell the middle class in India represents the majority of the white collar group and the top of the blue collar group.’( Jain p 136, 1993) The typical Indian middle class family usually migrated years ago from the rural areas to reside in an urban area , has fewer number of children , both partners are working , having a *Maruti 800cc or at least a two wheeler (scooter) , children going to an English medium school. This contemporary Indian middle class family is on the threshold of change . While it has not given up many of the traditional values , it is aspiring for modernity. Beauty pageant holders like Ashwarya Ray and Sushmita Sen can trace their roots to this class. The following example depicts a typical middle class Indian family . ‘ It is Monday morning and Rita Puri is in a hurry . Her maid has not shown up for work , so the lady is busy fixing breakfast for her husband Raj , a business executive in Delhi , and a school going son Ravi. As the electric milkshake prepares a drink , she takes eggs from her fridge and puts slices of bread into the pop-up toaster. Amid this commotion , Ravi is flaunting his new sports shoe that blinks with lights and the mother (Rita) wants to catch the morning news . The husband is waiting to drive his son to the English medium school and his teacher wife to work in their *Maruti 800.’ ( Far Eastern Economic Review : 44-46 , 1993 , Jan 1993) This is a typical Indian middle class family which is enjoying the winds of economic change sweeping over India. The middle class family today enjoys better facilities than it did a decade ago. A television , telephone and a vehicle are thought of as more of a necessity than a luxury. This family is constantly looking for making its life even better and has become more conscious of its rights as a consumer. The family is become fashion conscious , spending a lot of time shopping for clothes and jewelry. It cares for good looks and grooming , spending substantial money on toiletries , cosmetics and health related products. The middle class teenage girls can be seen sporting trousers , T-shirts , sports shoes and other western garb which was restricted to a * ‘Kameez salwar’ only a decade ago. Their choices are influenced to a large extent by their western peers , thanks to the star TV which has brought the western culture right into their homes. Socializing has become an important part in the life of the Indian middle class family. A wife accompanying her husband to the bosses’ party is not unusual. Moving into higher circles and developing contacts is more of an accepted social norm. Even if the wife is not working she still is educated. And more importantly though the society is male dominated yet the middle class women finds herself more involved with the process of decision making especially with respect to child’s education and household items and even shopping for her husband. ‘ A typical Indian middle class family categorizes durable goods into two groups ; essentials and major purchases. Electric fans , gas stove , radio , electric iron , sewing machine and mixer/blender fit in the first category. These products are concurrently purchased within a short time of the establishment of the household. Among the major purchases the scooter or motorbike is the first durable product that the families aspire to buy. This is followed , in order , by television VCR , cooler , washing machine , dryer , electric oven , air conditioner , car and finally a foreign vacation.’ ( Jain . 1993) Overall size of the Indian market In the absence of an exact demarcation of the section of the middle class , a brief picture of the overall households and income levels might help to give a clearer idea. Five household surveys of consumption of selected manufactured consumer goods , each covering around half a million persons were conducted by National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) between 1985-86 and 1993-94. According to these estimates the number of urban households rose from 40 to 42 million while the rural households rose from 102 to 113 million . This reflected a growth of 5% in urban and 10.6% in the rural households. As a percentage of population there were 27% urban households and 73% rural households in 1992-93. This survey suggests that the number of households in the two highest levels income continue to show the maximum growth. Further the growth in the two highest income levels is faster in rural India than in urban India. According to the study the households in the highest income level grew by 181% in rural India in the period 1989-90 to 1992-93 against 37% in urban areas. As a result , the number of households in the high income levels was a little below 2.1 million in urban India and over 1.5 million in rural India , totaling 3.6 million which is around 200 million consumers. Now using income by itself to define a whole group of people is inappropriate and could be misleading . The purchase patterns provide a better picture. The NCAER surveys showed that the households in the lowest level of income above the poverty line are also among the buyers of manufactured goods . In 1992-93 they bought 1.85 million transistor radios . 0.68 million small black and white TV sets , 0.67 million pressure cookers , 4.12 million flashlights , 2.46 million bicycles ,5 million wrist watches and over 1.8 million electric fans. Thus even among the low levels of income , there are those that can afford to purchase products of convenience and comfort. Now if we add the middle income level households of about 65 million , according to the NCAER survey , to the 3.6 million households at the highest income levels as well as the 30 million households in the lowest levels of income described above we arrive at a total of 95 million households or 533 million people which is a huge market by any yardstick. However the size of the class of consumers which constitutes the core market for consumer goods and services vary , depending upon the specific product or service and ranges from 100 - 300 million. Indicators supporting the existence and potential of the middle class segment. There are a number of factors that lend support to the existence and the potential of this segment of the market . The increased use of credit cards , decrease in the savings rate , the figures from the paint industry and the stock exchange and other industry facts are some of the indicators of the potential of this class. 1. Credit Cards: Visa believes that while the Indian card holding base is still relatively small , the potential is huge. It estimates a market size of 40 million. Visa estimates that over one million cards are in operation in India. They are interested in targeting the top consumers - the upper middle class and high net worth individuals. Their assessment is that the market is between 3 and 5 million and could reach over 10 million in four years. Citibank has predicted that India would have the second largest number of credit cards in issue ( after US) by the year 2000. Standard Chartered bank which launched two cards recently processes at least 300 applications for cards everyday. The reason for this demand is that the merchants are becoming more agreeable to accepting cards because of the increasing number of cards in circulation and also because it gives the establishment an up market image. But the use of credit card is limited even among the card holders. According to Chandra Agnihotri , Visa’s point man in India “Credit cards are still seen as a status symbol and are mostly used for travel and entertainment rather than for day-to-day payments”. (http://www.cgtd.com/global/indccard.html ) 2. Decreasing saving rate: India’s saving rate is estimated to have fallen from 24% of GDP to 22% in the recent years. While governmental dis-saving is one cause , the increased spending on consumer goods is another. An NCAER study last year concluded that Indians of all classes are spending more and that there has been an upsurge in purchases by even the lowest groups. 3. Paint industry : The growth of the paint industry by 2% in the year 1993 and also the breakdown of this growth in terms of sectors lends further support to the existence of the middle class consumer market. While 80% of this growth is attributed to the decorative or domestic sector while 20% is attributed to the industrial sector. The strong demand for consumer goods particularly housing and transportation is driving the sectors growth. Kamal Nanavaty , senior VP/marketing at Reliance industries (Mumbai) estimates “vehicle production in India , which stood at 2.2 million units in 1990 and 2.6 million in 1995 will rise to about 5 million by 2000- with scooters accounting for 1.8 million units , motorcycles 1.3 million units , mopeds 780,000 , cars 750,000 and commercial vehicles 350,000. Demand for a range of chemicals like paints is driven by the exploding Indian middle class which has higher aspirations and more disposable income and purchasing power to fulfill them.” ( Chemical week , 49-52 , 1996 Sept. 11) 4. Advertising Agencies: Another proof in support of the argument is the extent to which the advertising industry is booming. Gross billings grew by 37% in 1994 when they exceeded Rs One billion for the first time and 36% in 1993 among the 130 accredited agencies. This is perhaps fueled by the rapidly increasing TV penetration. About 40 million of the households now have access to the medium and a vast majority of them are connected to cable , a medium which did not exist a few years ago.Says Geoff Howard whose agency Lowe Howard -Sphinx moved into India last year, “ India has a middle - class the size of Europe and they are all anxious to start consuming”.(Marketing week , 47-48 , Oct 20 ,1995) 5. Attitudinal Change: Whether as a result of increased exposure to western culture through Star TV or as a result of their dormant aspirations , ‘there is a marked change in the outlook of the middle class consumers , which is more pragmatic and western’(Jain). They have grown more innovable and amenable to new product and ideas and always wanting to try things that they had seen on the foreign magazines amd movies. 6. Growing liberalisation : More and more urban couples are opting for smaller families so their is more disposable income and lifestyles are becoming increasingly westernized. This has given rise to incresing numbers taking vacations which is further supported by the outbound travel. Travel agents that used to handle only inbound are turning to outbound . It has been estimated that Indian outbound travel has been experiencing double digit growth per year in the nineties. More disposable income , greater consumer confidence and a greater willingness to spend are all very positive to tourism. 7. The changing Indian Woman : The growth in education , the media influence and the growing number of working women have created a new middle class woman. This woman is more self-assured , confident and health conscious and is making increasing demands for personal and convenience products.(Jain 143 , 1993) Personal products may range from lipstick to a sanitary napkin. A US lingerie company that accompanied a trade delegation to India a few years ago learnt that about 70% of the Indian women wear no underwear. The logic runs that there is a ready made market in India of 350 million women equally ready to spend their rupees on bras and knickers.( Director , 36-42 , 1995 May) Convenience goods for this woman would include foods like cereals and noodles and blenders and pressure cookers. 8. Demographics: It is estimated that by the turn of the century sixty percent of the middle class population will be below the age of 40 years. Over 70% of the middle class families will continue to live in urban India. The younger consumer living in an Urban area is becoming increasingly cosmopolitan (Jain 143 , 1993) . This is going to lead to more secular attitude and a better acceptability and adaptability to change. 9. Political voice: The urban middle class has found itself involved with the politics right from the movement for independence. Majority of the leaders came from this class. It has been the source from which the cadres of the civilian and military bureaucracy were drawn both before and after independence. Both its huge size in absolute terms and its growing prosperity over time have demanded that it be given close attention.Even in the current political scenerio it seems to be the main battle ground between the hardliners BJP and the secular Congress party.According to Imtiyaz Ahmed a social scientist at the New Delhi’s JNU, “The middle class have acquired a new economic status but they still feel insecure about their social position”. Though many of the new middle class respond to BJP’s Hindi speaking rhetoric but when it comes to street violence this section is alienated because being the have’s they feel they have a lot more to lose. In ther words of Ved Marwah , a former Delhi Police commissioner , “ They (middle class) will always want to be on the side of firm governance , and may go to the other extreme and support an authoritarian regime because they feel so insecure” ( Far Eastern Economic Review , 16-18 , 1993, Mar 11). This should be a source for optimism for the multinationals who have been hesitant to invest in India. They can perhaps rely on the middle class to ensure a long term and violence free political stability in India. 10. Stock Exchange : Another indicator of the potential of the middle class is the growth of the Indian stock exchange. M.R Maya , the executive director of the Bombay Stock exchange attributes the surge in the exchange to the growth of the middle class. “ This group which is becoming more consumer oriented forms a huge market for domestic producers. And also because stock markets began to be a viable hedge against inflation , more people put their savings in stocks rather than gold , silver or real estate.India has the largest share owning population after US ( 15 to 20 million ) Out of that total between 10 to 12 million hold equity shares , 4 to 5 million hold bonds or debentures and 5 million invest in mutual funds”( Asia Finance , 12-13 , 1991 Jan 15) . 11. Apparel market: The middle class reputation of India has attracted many a foreign fashion brands. Some of the famous names are Benneton which entered India in 1988 followed by Pierre Cardin Fashions and Levi Strauss. ‘The focus of these fashion retailers is the middle class which is evident from their pricing strategies - geared towards the relatively affluent rather than the truly wealthy’(Cross border monitor ,April 12,1995). The market is countrywide as is indicated by the marketing strategy of Dupont sports the licencee of Wrangler jeans which advertises in several languages other than English like Hindi , Bengali and Tamil. 12. Cellular market : There are an estimated 120,000 cellular phone subscribers in the eight metropolitan cities with Delhi alone accounting for 50,000. If global trends are followed in India , this figure is likely to double within a year . It is estimated that if the cellular subscribers in the new circles are added to this number it might be well above 320,000 by the end of 1997. Motorola , Nokia , Ericsson , Panasonic , Sony , Siemens and Orbitel are some of the major foreign cellular phone handsets suppliers selling in India (http:// www.ciol. com: 80/ciol/articles/1nj01641.html) . 13. Car market : In a market that boasted of only two major brands , Ambassador and Premier Padmini fiat , a little over a decade ago is now home to a score of brands . Car sales are growing by 25% a year . Car models like Daewoo , Cielo , Ford Escort , Peoguot 309 and Fiat Uno are already on the Indian roads with Hyundai Accent , Ford Fiesta , Honda Civic and a host of others following . Maruti Udyog - a jointly owned company by the Indian government and Japan’s Suzuki has 75% share of the new car market. It’s most popular model 800 cc , which started with Rs.50,000 a decade ago and now commands a price tag of Rs.200,000 , is more identified with the middle class consumers ( Economist , 62-63 , 1996 Mar 2 ) . In a nutshell it is this booming middle class that has attracted brands like Mercedes - Benz , Opel Astra , Ford Escort , Fiat Uno , Addidas , Reebok , Nike , McDonald’s , Pizza Hut , KFC , Dommino’s , Thank God It’s Friday , Electrolux , Samsung , Whirlpool , Southern Comfort , Pepsi Cola , Coke , Avon , Revlon , Swiss - watches , Parker and countless other multinationals into the country. Conclusion The emerging middle class represents a viable qualified available market - the set of consumers who have interest , income , access to durable products . The shopping behavior of the Indian consumers should be enough of an assurance . Maruti , a company that did not exist ten years ago has announced that it is going to double production of its cars from 100,000 to 200,000. In Delhi alone 100 new Maruti cars enter the roads everyday and same is the case with other consumer durables from scooters to bicycles and washing machines to refrigerators. Briefly, the Indian middle class holds a substantial amount of money that exceeds the national income of many countries. The consumer durable market in India is biggest in Asia (except) japan ; it is even bigger than China where income distribution is more even than in India and prices are much higher. India is going through a consumer revolution , an all pervading phenomenon affecting every fact of middle class life . Food habits have been subject to the onslaught of consumer revolution if the success of Kelloggs is an indication. And finally to dispel any doubts about the true potential of this middle class phenomenon the remarks of a Bombay executive should be enough “Year in and year out , people are becoming better off , more working women , later marriages , fewer children per family , more leisure time , higher expectations , and a propensity to spend on a better life .” The decade of the 1990's has so far seen fundamental changes in the structure of the Indian society . These changes are likely to accelerate and lead to a dramatically transformed India. The consumer is increasingly becoming king. Aspirations are rising and thus requiring an intense need to be met with appropriate products. ‘Despite the growing westernization of the middle class , it is unwise to assume that any foreign brand will do . Homework is essential . In the beginning Pepsi’s Hostess - brand potato chips flopped because customers wouldn’t pay extra for the aluminum foil packaging . Sales improved only after the chips were relaunched in polyester film and with new flavors’ (Asian Business , 18-22 , 1994 Feb ) . Product design , scale economies , packaging , pricing , branding , distribution and advertising are the means by which products build themselves . As the television explosion continues , they will become even stronger. Occupational patterns and levels of education are changing . Prosperity will lead people away from basic foods to taste , convenience , comfort and entertainment. Products will have to enter the market to satisfy them . An increase in the purchase intensity from the low levels is inevitable. 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