September 1, 1998

SAN DIEGO -- Voters are initially favorable toward Proposition 5, the November ballot measure that would authorize continuing certain types of gambling on Indian lands, according to a new Field Poll.

Because of the multimillion-dollar television advertising campaign that has been raging all summer, there is an unusually high degree of voter awareness -- 84 percent have heard of Proposition 5 -- more than two months before the election.

The statewide survey by the nonpartisan Field Institute found opinions about the Indian gaming measure to be sharply divided among voters who were aware of it: 36 percent in favor, 22 percent opposed and 36 percent undecided.

When voters considered likely to cast ballots Nov. 3 were read a summary of Proposition 5, opinions tended to crystallize in its favor. A majority, 53 percent, favored Proposition 5 while 28 percent opposed it and 19 percent were undecided.

The numbers indicate that supporters of Proposition 5 are in a strong position, but by no means home free, said Mark DiCamillo, associate director of the Field Poll. Typically, the pollster said, successful ballot propositions register overwhelming leads in early polls that diminish as the election draws closer and the opposing arguments begin to take hold.

"It's ahead and comfortably so, but usually propositions that comfortably pass start out with very large majorities and that is not the case here," DiCamillo said. "When you're expecting big advertising on the 'no' side, that's when these kinds of leads can shrink in a short period of time."

There are much lower levels of voter awareness of four other November ballot propositions, all of which are expected to be controversial but have not yet become the focus of expensive campaigns.

Forty-three percent of those polled said they were aware of Proposition 8, Gov. Pete Wilson's education initiative, which would establish permanent funding for class-size reduction, create a parent-teacher council at each public school, require testing of teachers and require automatic suspension of students for drug possession.

When that summary was read to voters, 55 percent supported Proposition 8, 24 percent opposed it and 21 percent were undecided.

A second education initiative, Proposition 10, sponsored by actor/director Rob Reiner, is also popular in early polling. It would raise cigarette taxes to pay for programs on early childhood development and smoking prevention.

When voters were read a summary of Proposition 10, 56 percent favored it, 34 percent opposed it and 10 percent were undecided.

The Field Poll portends an uphill campaign for supporters of two other ballot measures.

Only 10 percent of the voters are aware of Proposition 9, which restricts the ability of utilities to generate money to pay the costs of nuclear power plants. When voters were read a survey of Proposition 9, only 20 percent supported it while 43 percent opposed it and 37 percent were undecided.

DiCamillo said there have been a number of examples over the years of initially favorable responses to propositions turning around as the campaign wears on, but the reverse seldom happens.

Proposition 3 would change California's new open primary system back to the traditional closed primary for presidential elections only. That is because the national rules of both the Democratic and Republican parties require that presidential nominating convention delegates be chosen only by party members.

Voters, however, like the freedom to cross party lines and don't favor going back to the old system. Nearly half, 49 percent, oppose Proposition 3, while 28 percent favor it and 23 percent are undecided.

"The initial read is they don't want to tamper with the open primary law. I think that's what is coming through loud and clear," said DiCamillo.

The Field Poll is based on telephone interviews with 870 registered California voters, of whom 625 said they were likely to vote. The interviews were conducted Aug. 18-24. The poll has a margin of error of 5.8 percentage points.

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