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The Los Angeles Times

(Please excuse the "=" characters, I ran out of time to fix the problem)
Tuesday, September 22, 1998 THE TIMES POLL: ANALYSIS
California Voters Support Tribal Casinos Initiative Statute

Prop. 5 receives widespread support. Awareness is hig= h six weeks before Nov. 3 election due to summer advertising blitz. Most = voters remain largely unfamiliar with other measures and candidates in do= wn-ballot races.
By JILL DARLING RICHARDSON, Associate Poll Director
With six weeks to go until the general election, = most of the California electorate is unsure of how they will vote on thre= e of the measures that will be facing them on the November 3rd ballot. La= rge numbers of California voters also express uncertainty over their choi= ces in the so-called down ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney = general, state controller, secretary of state, insurance commissioner and= superintendent of public instruction, according to a recent Los Angeles = Times poll.

Proposition 5: The Tribal Casinos Initiative
   =    The only proposition to garner much attention from Californians so far is= Proposition 5, the Tribal Casinos Initiative, which seems likely to pass= on November 3rd. The measure would allow casino-style gambling on Native= American lands in addition to games which already bring millions of doll= ars of revenue into tribal coffers and create thousands of jobs. When ask= ed if they had heard, read or seen anything about the initiative, 61% of = registered voters said they had. A 43% plurality said they would vote for= the initiative, 18% against. The state's voters considered most likely t= o turn out to vote on November 3rd responded almost identically, with 45%= for, 19% against and 36% not sure. When read the proposition's ballot la= nguage, the plurality among all registered voters increased to a 57% majo= rity saying they would vote yes, 28% said no and 15% still weren't sure. = Again, likely voters cast their votes in nearly identical proportion, 59%= affirmative, 28% negative and 13% not sure.
    &= #160; The fairly high awareness of Proposition 5 is likely the result of heavy = spending on ad campaigns by those on both sides of the issue. Eighty-one = percent of voters had viewed a commercial about the issue, 69% said they = had watched a commercial favoring Prop 5, while 59% had seen a commercial= opposing it. Overall, 54% said they had seen commercials sponsored by bo= th sides in the debate. Support for the measure is significantly higher a= nd indecision lower for the initiative among those registered voters havi= ng watched a commercial from either side--61% would vote yes, 27% no, and= 12% aren't sure. Only a 43% plurality of those voters who have not seen = a commercial would vote yes, 36% say they will vote no and 21% are undeci= ded. The numbers are little changed whether the commercial watched was po= sitive or negative, demonstrating the broad support the poll found for th= e issue.
      Indian casinos are not at this time a major form of entertainment for Cal= ifornians, the poll found, with nearly three quarters saying they had not= nor had anyone in their immediate family visited one. Still, one out of = every four poll respondents or someone in their immediate family has gone= to an Indian casino, forming the basis for the tribal claims of economic= dependency on existing gaming machines. The state has demanded that the = tribes operating these gaming machines shut them down, claiming they are = operating illegally.
      When asked how often they gamble, 6% of Californians said often, another = 20% said they gamble sometimes, while 41% said rarely and another third s= aid they never gamble. Possibly in response to the economic self-sufficie= ncy arguments laid out in commercials supporting Proposition 5, support f= or the initiative is not entirely predicated upon gambling habits. While = Poll findings show support is highest among those who gamble sometimes or= often (65%), even half (51%) of those who say they never gamble would vo= te to pass the initiative while 33% say they would not.

Other Ballot Measures: Propositions 9 and 10
   =    The other ballot propositions tested in the recent Times poll aren't as f= amiliar to voters. A whopping 82% of the electorate and of likely voters = hadn't heard enough about Proposition 9, the Electric Utilities Assessmen= ts Initiative to venture an opinion. Even after being read a description = of the measure's ballot language, a 43% plurality of registered voters an= d 46% of likely voters would not commit to a yes or no vote. Among those = who did express an opinion the proposition fared well, passing 63% to 37%= among registered and likely voters alike. Similarly, seven of ten registered and likely voters had no opinion when = first asked about Proposition 10, which would levy a 50 cent per pack cig= arette tax to fund early childhood development and smoking prevention pro= grams. After being read the ballot language, however, voters made up thei= r minds quickly, saying they would approve the proposition by a 54% to 35= % majority among registered, with only 11% left undecided. The numbers am= ong likely voters are virtually identical to those among all registered v= oters.

Down Ballot Races
Not surprisingly, the down ballot races generate much less interest among= California voters than the more highly visible contests for California g= overnor and U.S. senator. With six weeks to go, the poll found between fo= ur and five out of every ten voters has not heard enough about the races = for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller, and secretary of s= tate to be able to choose a candidate. The race for insurance commissione= r is slightly more visible, with a large majority of voters able to ident= ify a candidate of their choice and there is more awareness, among state = Democrats, at least, of incumbent Kathleen Connell for state controller.<= br>      Kathleen Connell enjoys a comfortable double digit lead (38% to 22%, with= 40% undecided) over Republican candidate Ruben Barrales among all regist= ered voters in the race for controller. Among likely voters, Connell's le= ad tightens slightly to 13 percentage points (40% to 27% with 33% undecid= ed.) Connell garners a strong 60% among Democratic registered voters and = has 15% of the Republican vote, while only 46% of Republicans and 5% of D= emocrats have made up their minds to vote for Barrales at this time. Desp= ite her double digit lead, the high percentage of undecided voters makes = the outcome of this race uncertain.
      Chuck Quackenbush and Diane Martinez are running a slightly higher profil= e race for state insurance commissioner, with 71% of registered voters ve= nturing a choice at this time. This may be a result of the non-election r= elated advertising incumbent Quackenbush ran before the primary and more = recently. The ads may have raised awareness about the race, but their ben= efit to Quackenbush remains to be seen, as his 36% of the vote among regi= stered voters looks very similar to the 35% garnered by Martinez. Twenty-= eight percent have yet to make up their minds. Among likely voters, Quack= enbush has an early lead of 8 points, 42% to 34% with 23% undecided.
&= #160;     In the contest for attorney general, Democratic candidate Bill Lockyer ha= s a six point lead over Republican candidate Dave Stirling, 31% to 25%, w= ith 44% still unsure. Among those voters considered most likely to turn o= ut in November's election, the race tightens to a virtual dead heat, 31% = for Lockyer to Stirling's 30% with the plurality (39%) still making up th= eir mind. Bill Jones, the Republican candidate for secretary of state garners 28% o= f the vote among all registered voters while 30% said they will vote for = Michela Alioto, and 42% are undecided. Among likely voters, the race wide= ns slightly with Jones at 34% to Alioto's 29% while a plurality of 37% ar= e not sure.
      Republican Curt Pringle and Democrat Phil Angelides are running a similar= ly tight race for California treasurer among those who are following it, = with one out of four registered voters choosing Pringle, 27% voting for A= ngelides and nearly half (47%) of all registered voters unsure of their v= ote in this low profile race six weeks in advance of the election. Among = likely voters, the race is similarly divided with 30% expressing support = for Pringle, 27% for Angelides, and 42% undecided.
   &= #160;  The race for the nonpartisan office of superintendent of public instructi= on is of especially low interest to the voting public, who do not have pa= rty identification to help them choose between equally unfamiliar candida= tes. Two-thirds of voters don't yet know if they will cast their vote for= Gloria Matta Tuchman or Delaine Eastin, who is not experiencing the poss= ible advantage of incumbency her colleagues Connell and Quackenbush enjoy= =2E Matta Tuchman's co-sponsorship (with Ron Unz) of controversial Propos= ition 227--banning bilingual education in California's public schools--wh= ich passed handily in the June primary has likewise done little to raise = voter interest for or against her candidacy. Among all registered voters,= 10% chose Matta Tuchman while 24% said they would vote for Eastin if the= election were being held today. The numbers change little among likely v= oters, with 27% choosing Eastin and 11% for Matta Tuchman. A significant = majority (62%) of voters considered most likely to vote have not yet made= up their minds in this race.
      Analysis by Jill Darling Richardson How the Poll Was Conducted The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered v= oters and 684 likely voters, by telephone September 12-17. Telephone numb= ers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit d= ialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could b= e contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with cens= us figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The ma= rgin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is= plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is four poin= ts. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll r= esults can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and= the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in= English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and inclu= ded in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separ= ately.


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