He Stands Alone:

Rickey Henderson’s Career Stolen Base Record May Never Be Broken

By Steve Fall

Baseball fans and media members love to speculate about which records will never be broken.

Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak is probably mentioned most often. Does Rickey Henderson’s career stolen base mark also fall into the unbreakable category?

Baseball records in general seem a little more attainable after both Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa topped Roger Maris’ home run mark last season. However, it appears that Henderson will be the stolen base champ for quite some time.

Henderson had 1,304 career steals through games of May 31. His lead over the next closest basestealer, Lou Brock with 938, is already 366.

Henderson has a chance to pad this lead even further. That is something he’s been doing for eight years since he topped Brock’s total on May 1, 1991.

As of now, Henderson has stolen 39 percent more bases than any player in major league history. Conversely, Hank Aaron, with 755 home runs, has hit 41 more round-trippers than any other player, but his total is just 5.7 percent greater than Babe Ruth’s total of 714.

Below is a chart of the differences between the leader and runner-up in several major statistical categories. They are ranked by the percentage by which they exceed the next closet player.

Stolen Bases

Slugging Pct

Doubles

Home Runs

Triples

RBIs

Runs

Batting Avg

On-Base Pct

Hits

None of the leaders in any other category has an advantage 10 percent greater than the next closest player. Henderson should finish his career more than 40 percent higher than Brock in steals.

Furthermore, only 12 players have even half as many steals as Henderson. Meanwhile, 39 players have half as many career home runs as Aaron. Here are the stolen base totals for Henderson and the other players.

All-Time Stolen Base Leaders

Rickey Henderson...........1,304

Lou Brock.......................938

Billy Hamilton..................912

Ty Cobb.........................892

Tim Raines (still active).......804

Vince Coleman.................752

Eddie Collins...................744

Arlie Latham....................739

Max Carey......................738

Honus Wagner.................722

Joe Morgan.....................689

Willie Wilson...................668

Tom Brown.....................657

You may not recognize some of these names. Six of them played at least part of their careers before 1910. Brock and Tim Raines are the only two players besides Henderson to top 800 steals that played after 1930.

Are there any active players with a shot at catching Henderson? Here are all active players with over 400 career steals along with their current ages.

Active Players With 400 Stolen Bases

................................SB......Age

Rickey Henderson.......1,304......40

Tim Raines..................804......39

Otis Nixon..................606......40

Barry Bonds................447......34

Kenny Lofton...............422......32

Lofton is the only player with any chance at all, and the odds are stacked against him. He entered this season with 408 steals. Therefore, if he stole 90 bases this year and in each of the following nine seasons, he would have 1,308 for his career (which probably still wouldn’t top Henderson’s eventual total). This is an extremely tall order for Lofton considering his career high is 75. Also, this pace would require him to have two 90-stolen base seasons in his 40s. No 40-year-old has ever stolen 50 in a season.

For the record to fall, another rare talent like Henderson would have to come along. Henderson started his career at the early age of 20, and he has maintained his basestealing ability until age 40. Few players can do both. Many players steal a tremendous number of bases in their 20s only to fall off dramatically thereafter.

Vince Coleman is one player that fits this description. He stole 586 bases before age 30, but only 166 afterwards. Henderson swiped 794 bases in his 20s, and he has added more than 500 since he turned 30.

Another obvious prerequisite for any player to get more than 1,000 career stolen bases is the ability to hit and reach base.

Otis Nixon is a great example of this. He has also stolen more than 500 bases since he turned 30. However, because he didn’t hit much when he was in his 20s, he never got enough playing time to accumulate many steals. He only had 105 prior to age 30.

If Henderson’s record is to fall, it will probably require another change in the frequency of stolen bases. During the current era, most teams focus on the long ball to generate offense. Few teams have more than one player capable of stealing 50 bases.

This was not the case during much of the 1970s and 1980s. A shift back to an emphasis on the stolen base doesn’t seem imminent, but it certainly could happen.

Henderson may also become the all-time leader in both runs and walks before he retires. His total of 1,913 walks currently ranks third. He trails Ruth (2,056) and Ted Williams (2,019). If he stays healthy, he could top Ruth before the end of next season.

The top spot in runs is going to be tougher to reach. Here are the leaders.

All-Time Runs Scored Leaders

Ty Cobb...................2,246

Hank Aaron...............2,174

Babe Ruth.................2,174

Pete Rose..................2,165

Willie Mays...............2,062

Rickey Henderson.......2,031

Stan Musial...............1,949

Lou Gehrig...............1,888

Tris Speaker..............1,882

Mel Ott....................1,859

Henderson could score 100 runs in both 1999 and 2000 and he would still fall short of the record. But it is definitely not out of his grasp.

Injuries have slowed his progress toward these milestones this year. He only played in about half the Mets’ games in the first two months of the season. He may also find himself getting squeezed for playing time because of the fine play of outfielders Roger Cedeno and Benny Agbayani.

Henderson is already considered the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history. However, it would further solidify his hold on this distinction if he ended his career in first place in stolen bases, walks and runs scored.

Even if he doesn’t reach the No. 1 spot in walks or runs, Henderson will stand alone at the top of the stolen base list. And he should for many, many years to come.

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