by Piyaporn Hawiset
The April 30, 1999 admission of Cambodia as the 10th member provides a daunting task for the region's poorest country. Analysts predict the road to reaping benefits will be bleak for Cambodia.
Cambodia finally joined the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) on April 30 in a ceremony held in Hanoi hailed as a historic event for the region's 500 million people.
After two years of wrangling, Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong and the other nine ASEAN foreign ministers signed a declaration admitting Phnom Penh at a luxury hotel in Hanoi. Once official speeches concluded, ministers moved to the hotel grounds and watched as a Vietnamese soldier raised the Cambodian flag alongside the other ASEAN flags. A military band played Cambodia's national anthem.
ASEAN had postponed Phnom Penh's admission following Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's ouster of co-premier Prince Norodom Ranariddh in a coup almost two years previously. Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, speaking just before the formal ceremony, said the event would be a great day for Southeast Asia.
"This fulfils one of the dreams of our founding fathers, to at last have all 10 Southeast Asian nations under one roof," Alatas told reporters. "This is really an historic event because for many years Southeast Asia was either the cockpit of proxy wars, the site of internecine strife or divided by colonial powers. We were never united... Now for the first time Southeast Asia is one."
But political analysts have said ASEAN should keep the champagne on ice until the 32-year-old group recovers from its debilitating economic crisis. Indeed ASEAN is no economic heavyweight, with combined gross domestic product at roughly $550 billion compared with $380 billion in Australia. ASEAN foreign ministers were expected to meet later with Vietnam Prime Minister Phan Van Khai and then attend a dinner. No other formal events or talks were scheduled. Hor Namhong said ASEAN entry would bring great economic benefits to war-ravaged Cambodia.
ASEAN now comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- countries that range from free-wheeling democracies to military dictatorships and communist states.
Its decision to delay Cambodia's admission angered Hun Sen, who agreed a new coalition with Ranariddh after a national election in July 1998. Wrangling over when to admit Cambodia spilled into open discord at an ASEAN summit in Hanoi in December 1998. The date for the induction ceremony was agreed earlier in April.
Christopher Lingle, author of The Rise and Decline of the Asian Century, told Reuters that ASEAN's greatest success had been in keeping members focused on opening their economies. He said the group's biggest failure was in not serving as a forum for thoughtful introspection, especially during the boom years before the region sank into economic morass in mid-1997.
"This might have allowed them to see how their political and corporate culture impeded adjustments to changing competitive conditions. Then they might have avoided the worst of the crisis," Lingle said.
ASEAN was formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand amid concern that the war in Indochina would spill over into their backyards. Communist-ruled Vietnam, for years the bogeyman against which the group defined itself, joined in 1995.
A symbolic entry that lacks real substance
The admission of Cambodia into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Hanoi fulfilled only half of the founders' dream at the launch of the grouping 32-years ago. The ceremony, witnessed by ASEAN foreign ministers, fulfilled the founders' dream of putting all ten Southeast Asian nations under the ASEAN roof. After its birth in Bangkok in 1967 with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as the founding members, ASEAN admitted Brunei in 1984, Vietnam in 1995, and Burma and Laos in 1997.
But the founders' dream of a better and stronger ASEAN remains elusive.
Cambodia entered ASEAN as a politically and economically fragile member. Although it has fulfilled all the grouping's pre-entry requirements, analysts remain skeptical about the durability of peaceful co-existence between the country's two leaders. Under pressure from ASEAN, prime minister Hun Sen has made room for his arch rival Prince Norodom Ranariddh, by creating a new post of parliamentary speaker for him and ensured the creation of an upper house. ASEAN insisted on these conditions in a bid to counterbalance the powers of the Cambodian People's Party which won the July 1998 elections by a clear margin-and also to save itself from another embarrassing surprise.
The grouping had to postpone initial plans to admit Cambodia in July 1997, about a month after giving Phnom Penh the green light, after the prince was ousted from the coalition formed by the May 1993 United Nations-organised elections.
Though the new power structure contains no guarantee of political stability, a foreign ministry official argued that it was nevertheless an encouraging sign for a country still undergoing the process of national reconciliation.
ASEAN began showing signs of weakness around 1997 after the start of the Asian economic crisis and the admission of Burma into the grouping. The financial collapse, which began with Thailand's baht crisis, has undercut ASEAN's economic bargaining power as it transformed the region from an ideal trade and investment haven to a struggling market. Bringing Burma into the club has soured ASEAN's relations with long-standing partners, especially the European Union, which has refused to pursue co-operation. After calling off a ministerial meeting in March over the question of Burma's participation, the EU on April 26 reaffirmed its opposition to Rangoon's poor human rights record by extending for another six months sanctions against the regime.
According to Darm Sukhosatap, a fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies, a main setback for ASEAN resulting from Burma's entry is that other members had to spend their energies defending its controversial membership rather than engagement in more productive activities. Uncertainty in Indonesia in the post-Soeharto era poses another worry for its ASEAN neighbours. Nobody knows what would happen to Indonesia after the first democratic polls in decades in June 1999, or to Timor, but analysts seemed sure that the transfer of power will not be smooth.
"Concern about the shaky political situation in Indonesia will occupy ASEAN attention in the next two or three years," said Withaya Sucharithanarungse, director of the Institute of Asian Studies. As the biggest and most populous member, there is no doubt that Indonesia will have an impact on the region no matter which direction it takes, he added.
Thus, the gathering in Hanoi on April 30 marked only a symbolic step.
"The upcoming ASEAN 10 will be a success in form not in substance", Mr Darmp noted before the ceremony.
ASEAN officials did not dispute the analysis, or overlook the difficulties of admitting Cambodia, but they argued that including it in the family would facilitate much needed assistance to it from other members, as well as the international community in general. They also pointed to the long term benefit of enlargement. With Cambodia, ASEAN will have about 500 million inhabitants and 4.5 million square kilometres and a combined trade of US$720 billion.
Cambodia's permanent secretary for foreign affairs, Chem Widhya, emphasised the mutual benefits to be gained. While older ASEAN member states could look forward to better political stability, foreign investment and tourism in the region Cambodia would enjoy a larger market for exports and special treatment from other ASEAN members for easier access of its products, he said.
"ASEAN is very important to Cambodia.," the senior Cambodian foreign ministry official added. "We are so small and underdeveloped and we cannot stay alone. So first and foremost we would like to merge into ASEAN".
But the road to reaping benefits from ASEAN does not look bright for Cambodia. Joining the grouping's economic scheme is a daunting task for the poorest country in the region with a per capita income of only US$280. Cambodia could face a prospective income reduction from slashing tariffs to meet the requirement of the ASEAN free trade zone scheme. In fact, Cambodia is still new to economic opening not to mention the free trade plan and more work has to be done for the preparation.
"Cambodia is still at the early stage of transforming its economy into the market-driven one," a senior ASEAN official dealing with the scheme admitted.
Central planning, a lack of rules and regulations and no real law, order or justice and a decade-long internal strife were obstacles for Cambodia to catch up with other members, the official said. He added that the new member required legal changes and determination from government officials to face the challenge.
Mr Widhya did not hide the weakness of his country especially regarding the shortage of manpower. However, he said the government did not sit idly and planned to improve English proficiency and negotiation skills for officials to deal with ASEAN affairs. He also expressed confidence that integration into the regional market and the task of overhauling the legal framework, customs standards and tariff structures would be compatible with those of ASEAN and he said this would eventually accelerate the process of Cambodia's economic reform.