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Asia Times (atimes.com), September 26, 2001
The fear factor weighs heavy in Indonesia
By Bill Guerin
JAKARTA - US President George W Bush last week met Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, and in the Oval Room itself, the seat of Western power, he promised to lift the long-standing United States military embargo on arms and spare parts sales, and sponsor a substantial economic support package for Indonesia.
In the same week, the International Monetary Fund's man in Jakarta talked up the economic prospects, telling Indonesia to be more optimistic about their chances of extending sovereign debt repayments with the Paris Club, Indonesia's main group of creditors.
State Secretary Bambang Kesowo, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Coordinating Minister for Economy Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda were all with Megawati at the White House. Part of the mission of this high-powered team was to restate and redefine Indonesia's commitment to the international business community to encourage them to invest in Indonesia.
Bush, who has done his best to persuade a billion Muslims that "we don't view this as a war of religion in any way, shape or form", must have seen Megawati's visit as a great chance to deliver this message, and said as much when telling her "you represent the nation with the most Muslim people in the world".
Megawati had her eye on the main chance and told Bush that her government condemned the "inhumane attacks on the US" and, ergo, "so it is very clear ... Indonesia has always been against violence".
Subsequently, there has been much talk and great optimism expressed about the chances of an end to the political deadlock that had stalled the administration of Abdurrahman Wahid on the reform and economic fronts. Markets and the currency rebounded.
The Indonesian rupiah, however, has continued to weaken steadily, since the events of September 11 on US soil, and is now hovering around the 9,400 rupiah to the dollar level. This is in astonishing contrast to the exponential strengthening of the local currency following the events of July 23 in Jakarta, when Megawati replaced Wahid, who was shunted out of power for mismanaging the economic and social affairs of the country. At that time the currency gained dramatically, rising from 10,100 at the end of July to a high of 8,500 in the middle of August.
What went wrong this time around, then? In a word, fear. Megawati's seemingly qualified and non-defined support for a war against terrorism had been preceded by some odd pontifications by Muslim leaders, including her deputy, back home in Indonesia. Vice President Hamzah Haz and People's Consultative Assembly speaker Amien Rais both warned the US not to jump to conclusions in laying the blame for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
Haz leads Indonesia's largest Muslim party, the United Development Party (PPP), and Rais was the former leader of the nation's second largest Muslim organization, Muhammadiyah.
Haz said the US could be making a mistake if it blames the attacks on Muslims. "The attacks were inconsistent with Islamic teachings. Islam is not like that," This use of a clone version of Bush's own words highlights what seems an unnecessary hammering home of the same established point.
However, a clue to Haz's real message came with the words "hopefully, this tragedy will cleanse the sins of the United States".
So, although condemning the savagery in New York and Washington, the vice president of Indonesia is thus adopting a stance and tone at variance with the Megawati approach.
Haz said the US should not launch retaliatory attacks against Muslim nations. "The US, in the name of democracy, could not do the same thing [devastating attacks] against the Islamic world and society," he said.
Amien Rais has repeated frequently that the US had previously made a mistake when Arabs were made the initial suspects in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing that killed 168. Rais's point was that US public speculation immediately centered on Muslim militants, but it later turned out the bomber had been one of their own, the recently executed Timothy McVeigh.
Thus the Muslim leaders in Indonesia have taken their stance, but is this to justify later support for anti-US sentiment and violence if indeed Bush were to launch attacks that killed even one innocent Muslim? Speculation, of course, but what is clear is that the many radical Muslim groups in Indonesia have also leaped to the forefront of public dialog even before Megawati begins her long journey home.
They are threatening to attack the US Embassy in Jakarta and force the expulsion of American citizens if Washington carries out retaliatory strikes against any Islamic nation. "If America drops even one bullet in Afghanistan, God willing, we will wipe out all US facilities and interests here," Muhammad Kalono, head of the Laskar Jundullah, said.
Other threats are from extremist groups that are no strangers to violence, including the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and Laskar Jihad, the group that kicked off a bloody jihad against Christians in the Eastern Spice Islands (Maluku) two years ago.
At a news conference in Jakarta the day before Megawati sat down with Bush nine hard-line Muslim groups said that they would be obeying the word of God if they fought back after any American military strikes against Muslims or Islamic countries. The extremists said that they would target any US organizations, including businesses.
H A Husaini, secretary general of the Indonesian Committee for World Islamic Solidarity (KISDI) read out a declaration signed by the nine Islamic organizations, urging Washington to make a wise and fair decision in dealing with terrorism. "If the US used the terrorist issue to wage a war against Muslims, we would have no choice but to defend our rights," he said.
The FPI claimed that it would send its members to Afghanistan if the US launches strikes there. The group also called on Megawati's government not to cave into Washington's "pressure to wage a war against Muslims".
They said that if Megawati supports US attacks against Muslim civilians in Afghanistan, she would be betraying Indonesian Muslims. "We warned the president not to become the US government's aide in attacking Muslims," it said. "If America attacks Afghanistan then America is attacking Islam. That would be [like] a crusade under the pretext of terrorism ... we will beat the drums for a jihad."
Ominously, the next day the Muslim daily Republika took up the baton. "It looks like the American interpretation of terrorism ... is any Islamic movement which aims to uphold Islamic law," it said, continuing, "President Megawati should be careful in giving support to the United States. Don't ever sell out the nation and make the Muslims cry."
Although these hard-line Islamic groups have the podium for the time being, they do not enjoy widespread public support. The average Indonesian Muslim, the man in the street, as it were, does not see this issue as demanding his/her attention. Even letters to the Indonesian press support a conclusion that, at present, those calling for violence and aggression in Indonesia are preaching in a wilderness
That's the good news. The situation could very rapidly worsen, however, if Megawati and her administration do not spell out for once and for all that her official government response will be to put in place measures that will protect Indonesians, the overwhelming majority of whom are Muslims, from terror and fear.
Jihads have rarely been spoken of in Indonesia until the past few years, and the danger now is that the extremist interpretations from radicals will strike a chord with the dispossessed, the disenfranchised and the disenchanted masses. The obvious manipulation of views based on culture and political expedience, using a religious viewpoint as an afterthought to lend greater credence to their actions, may not be too obvious to many adherents of the Indonesian version of Islam
The Osama bin Laden strategy of justifying aggression through a religious angle is mirrored in Indonesia. Why else would FPI leader Al Habib Muhammad Riziq Syihab threaten, "If the US carries out its threat in the form of military aggression against any Muslim states, then the FPI will perceive it as an act of terrorism."
Although jihad has a much different basis for interpretation, "to strive in the way of righteousness", in Indonesia it is commonly taken to be the alternative interpretation as the need to use one's wealth and, if necessary, one's life in the cause of such righteousness.
The Koran itself says, essentially, "God loves not the aggressor; but if you are attacked and if persecuted, fight back. And if you fear being slain, remember that persecution is worse than death."
This is the crux of the extremists' message and Taliban-style spin drives home a message that somehow Islam is a religion that sees everything in terms of a struggle, not against one's self, but against a perceived threat.
Although patently still in a minority, without steadfast and resolute handling of the anti-US manifestations, these radicals have great potential to cause chaos, even more so if backed by wealthy political opportunists and ambitious generals intent on destabilizing Megawati's presidency.
Paranoia and false accusations trumpeted in public create a dangerous climate of fear and anger, ripe for those intent on creating chaos Defense Minister Matori Abdul Jalil, one of only a few ministers currently in country, is doing his best to stem the tide.
He describes the infamous "sweeps", where militant Muslim groups search for US citizens, as "anarchic" and has called on local officials and police to take stern action against anti-American raids, saying that they would shatter international confidence in Indonesia and undermine its economic recovery.
Whether or not widespread fears of a serious anti-US campaign in Indonesia come true, or whether it's all a storm in a teacup, will depend on how Megawati responds on her return to Indonesia at the end of this month,
There are a number of stumbling blocks for Megawati, leader of a coalition government that has a number of conservative Muslim politicians and parties. They would see any crackdown on hard-line Muslim groups as proof to them that she was siding with the West against Islam. This is no small point given the quasi religious-political resistance to her presidential bid in 1999, when despite winning a majority she was manoeuvred aside for Wahid to step in.
Megawati will need an iron fist, and certainly not the gloved hand of her Javanese breeding which accounts for her self confessed tendency to "say nothing rather than be wrong". The stakes are high indeed.
Megawati herself emphasized in the White House that "terrorism also increasingly threatens Indonesia's democracy and national security". If the international community perceives that radical Muslim groups are altering the fabric of the Indonesian model of tolerant Islam, there is a significant danger of the image of the country sliding backwards, and an investor imposed moratorium on putting new money at risk.
Running hand in hand with the expected downturn in the global economy caused by the terror attacks in the US, the consequences could be grave for a country struggling painfully towards controlling its own destiny
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