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The Wall Street Journal, Friday, October 26, 2001
Past Catches Up to Southeast Asia
Amid Search for Terrorist Groups
Southeast Asia has been fertile ground for terrorist operations in the past, and the region is still under pressure from Islamic groups and can't be seen as too malleable to American demands.
By HELENE COOPER, Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
WASHINGTON -- Three years ago, 1,500 young Indonesian men thought to be involved in their country's fight to keep East Timor went to Afghanistan to train with Taliban fighters, U.S. officials say; they also believe all 1,500 returned home. But today, U.S. officials say they only know the whereabouts of 1,000 of them.
An Indonesian government official wouldn't confirm or deny that any of its citizens sought training in Afghanistan. Instead, he said Thursday that "intelligence cooperation between Indonesia and the U.S. has taken place to address" concerns about any such trainees. But American officials are far less circumspect. "There's a time bomb of 500 young people in Indonesia," says one U.S. official, "and that really concerns the American government."
As U.S. jets bomb Taliban targets in Afghanistan, senior Bush administration officials are turning their attention to other fronts in America's war on terrorism. Increasingly, Southeast Asia, home to some of the world's largest Muslim populations, is climbing up the priority list of potential trouble spots.
For the Bush administration, this presents a two-fold problem in Malaysia and Indonesia, whose populations are majority Muslim, and the Philippines, which is predominantly Catholic but has a small Muslim population fueling a separatist movement on its southern islands. All three countries are led by secular governments that the U.S. doesn't want to undermine. All three also are under pressure from Islamic groups and can't be seen as too malleable to American demands.
But in the past, Southeast Asia has been fertile ground -- and at times a launch pad -- for terrorist operations. In 1995, police in the Philippines uncovered a plot to crash an airplane into the Central Intelligence Agency's Langley, Va., headquarters. During the Persian Gulf War, Iraqi agents allegedly tried to blow up the U.S. ambassador's residence in Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim population. And an Islamic separatist group based in the southern Philippines this year expanded its profitable kidnapping operations to Malaysia, the U.S. Department of State reported in its most recent terrorism report.
That leaves White House officials walking a tightrope. The administration wants to pressure Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines to crack down on terrorist cells operating inside their borders. But U.S. officials also are wary of stirring up anti-American sentiment in countries whose Muslim populations have long existed peaceably alongside other religious groups.
The dilemma for President Bush was highlighted at last week's summit among Asian-Pacific nations in Shanghai, China. Mr. Bush was mostly successful in his efforts to get a strong statement from the Pacific Rim leaders: The communique issued at the end of the weekend meeting "unequivocally" condemned the Sept. 11 attacks as "murderous deeds," and denounced terrorism "in all forms and manifestations."
But largely because of pressure from Malaysia and Indonesia, the statement was noticeably silent on two major points. It made no mention of Osama bin Laden. And it didn't endorse the U.S.-led military strikes in Afghanistan.
Both Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad are struggling with the dilemma of how to crack down on the rise of militant Islamists without alienating the rest of their mostly-Muslim populations. U.S. officials acknowledge they have to tiptoe around those concerns when seeking help in their campaign against terrorism.
Asian Anxiety
Some of the militant Islamic groups based in East Asia
The Philippines
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), operating in the southern Philippines, is a radical Islamic separatist group with as many as 2,000 members. It has engaged in bombings, kidnapping and extortion.
Alex Bonyacayo Brigade (ABB) is an offshoot of the Communist Party of the Philippines National PeopleÕs Army. It has about 500 members, and has been involved in more than 100 murders and various attacks on foreign businesses. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is the largest Islamist separatist group remaining in the Philippines. Philippine officials have accused it of several bombings, including two at shopping malls and five in Manila on Dec. 30.
Indonesia
Laskar Jihad -- This organization, with membership in the thousands, fights in a sectarian conflict that has left thousands of people dead in eastern Indonesia.
Malaysia
Al-Ma'unah -- This Malaysian Islamic sect last year raided two military armories and took four hostages, killing two. Sources: U.S. Department of State Patterns of Global Terrorism 2000; WSJ research
"We respect that a country like Malaysia has internal challenges and tensions it must deal with," U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Zoellick said after meeting Mr. Mahathir in China last week.
Administration officials believe they may have more maneuvering room with Indonesia. President Megawati, who recently took over leadership of a country devastated by internal conflict, needs U.S. aid. During a visit to Washington last month she requested American economic assistance in the form of loans and other aid, while condemning the terrorist attacks and expressing cautious support for measures against terrorism.
U.S. officials are considering offering her more military, economic and political support as a carrot to crack down on Islamic militants. But there again, it is a tough call, Bush officials say. Many Congressional leaders don't like the idea of bolstering the Indonesian military, which has been criticized by human-rights groups.
About 85% of Indonesia's 210 million people follow Islam. Two-thirds of Malaysia's 23 million people are Muslim. Just 3% of the Philippines' 83 million people are Muslim, but they have fought a separatist insurrection for years. Thailand also has a restive Muslim minority.
Even before Sept. 11, U.S. officials were fretting about the rise of Muslim militancy in Southeast Asia, and in particular, about links there to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. In the Philippines, Mr. bin Laden's brother-in-law, Saudi businessman Mohamed Jamal Khalifa, helped found Abu Sayyaf, an al Qaeda offshoot believed to be responsible for a rash of kidnappings and murders, investigators say. Abu Sayyaf claims it is seeking an independent Muslim state in the Philippines, but the Filipino government characterizes the group as a gang of bandits that specializes in kidnappings and piracy. Among other crimes, the group claimed to have beheaded an American hostage whose remains were found on Basilan Island this month.
Earlier this week, five U.S. military advisers arrived in Zamboanga, in the southern Philippines, joining about 25 U.S. troops who arrived last week to train Philippine forces fighting Abu Sayyaf.
U.S. officials believe Abu Sayyaf is the key to al Qaeda links in Southeast Asia. Indeed, in Malaysia, Abu Sayyaf last year kidnapped 21 people, including 10 foreign tourists, from a diving resort, State Department officials say.
Most worrisome to the U.S. is Indonesia. Bush administration officials say they believe Indonesia's most militant fundamentalist Islamic group, Laskar Jihad, has ties to Taliban fighters. Investigators are studying reports that some of the missing Indonesian fighters who trained in Afghanistan may have ended up with the group. Laskar Jihad officials deny they have any links to Osama bin Laden, but confirm that the group's founder, Ja'far Umar Thalib, fought in Afghanistan and met Mr. bin Laden. In addition, Laskar Jihad leaders say they have "trainers" with Afghan fighting experience.
Not everyone in the administration views Indonesia as a threat. Indeed, one U.S. official played down the worries about the unaccounted-for fighters. Likewise, W. Scott Thompson, director of the Southeast Asia studies program at Tufts University in Boston, says it shouldn't be assumed that U.S. officials' inability to locate 500 men means they all joined terrorist groups.
"It's not as if 500 missing men have gone and hidden on a mountain. [It's] probably more like 50 that we need to worry about, while the rest went and got jobs with the Ford Foundation," he said.
Chris Dagg, a Southeast Asia specialist at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada, also plays down terrorism fears in Indonesia. "The groups in Indonesia are pretty homegrown, and fairly internal-looking," he said. "I'd be surprised if they were [recipients of] international terrorist support."
Even so, Mr. Thompson says the U.S. rates Indonesia at "a level 6" out of 10 as a source of anxiety. "This is a big country," he explains, "and it's falling apart."
-- Jay Solomon contributed to this article.
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