Should we be told if a monster rock is heading our way?
Researchers wrestled with this question at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Denver .
Some suggested there was no point worrying the global population about its imminent demise.
"If there is absolutely nothing you can do about it - you can't intercept it, you can't move people out of the way - then it makes no sense to incur social costs from whatever panic or overreaction there will be," argued Geoffrey Sommer, of the Rand Corporation, who has been studying how policymakers should react and prepare for Armageddon.
"If an extinction-type impact is inevitable, then ignorance for the populace is bliss."
But hang on, don't we have right to know?
I'd certainly want to know and it's not up to some bureaucrat to keep that from me.
People tend to react well in a crisis. "The single most important reason there were not more casualties at the World Trade Centre collapse was because there was no panic. It does happen - there are soccer stampedes and the like - but it is very rare."
The possibility of a major impact from space is a certainty. The geological record shows the Earth has been hit many times by large objects - some of which have come close to wiping life, clean from the face of the planet.
It is a fact that 95% of all the species that have ever existed are now extinct...
We will be hit again by objects much greater than one kilometre across - although it may not happen for tens, hundreds or even thousands of years. Just remember, the probability of being hit is 100%
According to current models, the amount of atmospheric dust loading after very large impacts is still very uncertain. The main killing agent may be the global ejecta fallout and the ensuing thermal pulse, popularly described as the "broiling effect". Other effects may be ozone depletion resulting from NO, H2O, and sea salt injected high into the atmosphere as a result of the impact, where global health concerns might arise for impacts smaller than the "global threshold" hitherto estimated are, however, very preliminary.
For smaller impacts that cause only regional damage, the main killing agent may be the destructive effects of impact-induced tsunami waves. Different models have yielded very differing results; one of the main issues is whether these waves break at the edge of the continental shelf.
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The Space guard Survey, conducted by the US space agency (Nasa), is looking for these big rocks with wide-field telescopes.
In the space out to about 200 million km, it has so far found about 650 "monsters" - none of which have orbits that pose a threat to the Earth. There is possibly a similar figure of undiscovered one-km-plus-sized rocks in the same region of space that have yet to be tracked down.
If a threatening object is found, many researchers are confident Earth will have the time and the technology to do something about it.
"We've landed a spacecraft on an asteroid; we have thrusting devices. We don't need a bomb. We could push on it and push it out of the way. It would take a while but we could deal with it. The real problem arises with comets that come from the deep, dark reaches of the outer Solar System." - Clark Chapman , asteroid scientist from the Southwest Research Institute.
”We don't see them until they get to Jupiter and they're in the vicinity of the Earth within a few months or a year after that. Perhaps there won't be enough time to deal with that."
All are agreed that proper disaster plans need to be put in place now and that the public needs to be educated about the real threat and how we might cope.
Every year, a small asteroid explodes in the Earth's atmosphere with an energy equivalent to 5,000 tonnes of TNT.
"Stuff comes in and it blows up. This sort of thing needs to be common knowledge." - Lee Clarke
Mass extinctions
With surprising and mysterious regularity, life on Earth has flourished and vanished in cycles of mass extinction every 62 ± 3 million years.
The pattern emerges from a computer study of fossil records going back for more than 542 million years, to the time of the great Cambrian Explosion, when almost all the ancestral forms of multicellular life emerged.
The fossil records in Sepkoski's compendium cover the first and last known appearances of 36,380 separate marine genera, including millions of species that once thrived in the world's seas.
The cycles are so clear that the evidence "simply jumps out of the data."
It had been suggested that a faraway dwarf star, named "Nemesis", was orbiting the sun, or an unknown "Planet X" somewhere far out beyond the solar system that's disturbing the comets in the distant region called the Oort Cloud and might be possible causes for the 62-million-year cycles.
Or perhaps there's some kind of "natural timetable" deep inside the Earth that triggers cycles of massive volcanism. There's even a bit of evidence: A huge slab of volcanic basalt known as the Deccan Traps in India has been dated to 65 million years ago – just when the dinosaurs died, he noted. And the similar basaltic Siberian Traps were formed by volcanism about 250 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period, when the greatest of all mass extinctions drove more than 70 percent of the entire world's marine life to death.
Anther far-out ideas is that the solar system passes through an exceptionally massive arm of our own spiral Milky Way galaxy every 62 million years, and that that increase in galactic gravity might set off a hugely destructive comet shower that would drive cycles of mass extinction on Earth.
Here are details of the five worst mass extinctions in Earth’s history and their possible causes: Cretaceous-Tertiaryextinction, about 65 million years ago, probably caused or aggravated by impact of a several-mile-wide asteroid that created the Chicxulub crater now hidden on the Yucatan Peninsula and beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Some argue for other causes, including gradual climate change or flood-like volcanic eruptions of basalt lava from India’s Deccan Traps. The extinction killed 16 percent of marine families, 47 percent of marine genera (the classification above species) and 18 percent of land vertebrate families, including the dinosaurs.
The Jurassic-Cretaceous boundaries, 144.6 +/- 0.8 million years before present may, or may not, involve a major impact event. An article on the "Discovery of distal ejecta from the 1850 Ma Sudbury impact event," which is "the second largest and third or fourth oldest extraterrestrial Earth impact site," says that "The debris (ejecta), landed 650 km west northwest of Sudbury near Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, and 875 km west of Sudbury near Hibbing, Minnesota, United States."
End Triassic extinction, roughly 199 million to 214 million years ago, most likely caused by massive floods of lava erupting from the central Atlantic magmatic province -- an event that triggered the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. The volcanism may have led to deadly global warming. Rocks from the eruptions now are found in the eastern United States, eastern Brazil, North Africa and Spain. The death toll: 22 percent of marine families, 52 percent of marine genera. Vertebrate deaths are unclear.
Permian-Triassic extinction, about 251 million years ago. Many scientists suspect a comet or asteroid impact. Others believe the cause was flood volcanism from the Siberian Traps and related loss of oxygen in the seas. Still others believe the impact triggered the volcanism and also may have done so during the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction. The Permian-Triassic catastrophe was Earth’s worst mass extinction, killing 95 percent of all species, 53 percent of marine families, 84 percent of marine genera and an estimated 70 percent of land species such as plants, insects and vertebrate animals. researchers discovered tiny capsules of cosmic gas trapped inside rocks from the Permian-Triassic, deposited by a space rock colliding with the planet. Isotopes of helium and argon gases commonly found in space were found within buckyballs or fullerenes (sphere of carbon atoms).
Researchers funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation have located the site of an impact crater.
Asteroidimpact
The Bedout crater(pronounced “Bedoo”) is believed to be associated with the largest extinction event in Earth's history about 251 million years ago; caused by an asteroid roughly 6 to 12 kilometres wide... Permian-Triassic impact on the giant landmass, called Pangaea, was the most severe mass extinction in the history of life on Earth. They used a new extraterrestrial tracer, fullerene; a third form of carbon besides diamond and graphite. . Late Devonian extinction, about 364 million years ago, cause unknown. It killed 22 percent of marine families and 57 percent of marine genera. Little is known about land organisms at the time.
Ordovician-Silurian extinction, about 439 million years ago, caused by a drop in sea levels as glaciers formed, then by rising sea levels as glaciers melted. 25 percent of marine families and 60 percent of marine genera became extinct.