Severe

I have prepared this site using the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan. I will also prepare this site by using BUFKIT, a program used by the National Weather Service offices and branches to calculat and plot various atmospheric conditions. So this will basically be a combination of my forecast using BUFKIT, the NSSL and SPC models, and the analysis of Milwaukee/Sullivan radar.

SLIGHT RISK
A slight chance implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers or low coverage. The guidelines for Slight Risk are:
High probability of 1" or larger hail
and/or 5-29 wind events
and/or 3-5 tornadoes
or a possibility that the risk will be changed to moderate or high as conditions develop.

MODERATE RISK
A moderate risk implies a greater concentration of severe weather and a greater magnitude of severe weather. The guidelines for Moderate Risk are:
A high probability of 30 hail reports over 1" or more
and/or 6-19 tornadoes
and/or 30+ wind events (may be associated with a type of squall line)

HIGH RISK
A high risk almost always means a major severe weather outbeak is imminent. The guidelines for a High Risk are:
at least 20 tornadoes, two being f3 or greater
and/or an extreme derecho causing 50+ wind events, winds in excess of 80-mph
and/or structural damage reports.

MINIMAL RISK
A minimal chance implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms are possible, but in extremely low numbers. The guidelines for Minimal Risk are:
Low to Moderate probability of 3/4" or larger hail
and/or 1-5 wind events
and/or a possibility that the risk will be changed to slight as conditions develop.

Index Page

This page could be replaced soon by WISCWX's upcoming summer t-storm outlooks. Please watch for experimental outlooks and a new web site to come soon in March-April 2002. Lead WISCWX Forecaster Alex Lamers (me) is working on outlook criteria and design and lead technician and secondary forecaster Jordan Gerth is working on a forecasting program and web site design. Updates will be posted on the web site we already have for winter weather. Click on the link on my index page to WISCWX winter weather site.