THREATENING WEATHER STATEMENT WISCWX STORM LAB KENOSHA WI 815PM CDT SUN APR 07 2002 STRONG STORM WATCH NUMBER 5 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HUMIDITY TOO HIGH AND EQUILIBRIUM TOO LOW TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OF ANY INTENSITY...LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT STORMS AFTER WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...HOWEVER, NO MORE WATCHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED AT THE TIME. CONDITIONS BEHIND WARM FRONT: DEWS ABOVE 44 --- WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 30 M/S --- TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. INDICATING THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AND WITH WBZ HEIGHTS SOME NICE SIZED HAIL MAY FORM. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAIN, AND HAIL FALLING BACK INTO UPDRAFT WITH LITTLE SHEAR, ANY STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER BUFKIT IS INDICATING EXTREMELY LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...NO THUNDER IN FORECAST NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE CAUSED BY COLD FRONT. $LAMERS$ ************************************************************************* STRONG THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 5 WISCWX STORM LAB KENOSHA WI 1125AM SUN APR 07 2002 THE WISCWX STORM LAB HAS ISSUED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WINNEBAGO EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 200 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CST. HAIL TO .75 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS IN A BOXED AREA FROM WINONA, MN TO TWO RIVERS TO PLEASANT PRAIRIE TO DUBUQUE, IA AND BACK TO WINONA. REMEMBER...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBLIITY IN THE AREA BUT TOO LOW OF A POSSIBILITY TO ISSUE A SEVERE WATCH. DISCUSSION...850MB LLJ MOVING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA REGION NOW. JET IS SHIFTING TO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEREFORE LOOK FOR WARMING AND MOISTURE BUILDUP. RIGHT NOW TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S IN IOWA AND THERE IS A 100 CIN CONVECTIVE CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP BUILDUP MOISTURE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS WISCONSIN. HUGE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE REGION, THE STREGTH OF THE JET, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FORCE RAIN SQUALLS OUT OF REGION AND ALLOW THE WARMUP. LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF AND YOU WILL SEE PEEKS OF SUN. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ON BACKSIDE OF LLJ HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER, SEVERE HAIL AS WELL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN 8500 WBZ HEIGHT. THUS, MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A THREAT WITH THIS 40 M/S VERTICAL SHEAR. TORNADOES MINOR THREAT AS HELICITY LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO 150. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO .75 INCHES EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION 215. $LAMERS$