In 2004 the Northern Division figures to separate into the haves and the have- not-enoughs; with Moline joining the 2003 playoff teams Harrisburg and Chicago in what looks to be a fantastic pennant/wild-card race; and Newark slipping back to mediocrity with the rest of the also-rans, while the expansion Hobgoblins stand a decent chance of finally finishing out of last place.
Former and quite possibly future dynasty Moline figures to return to playoff form in ’04 as an early season favorite to win the division. The Greens have everything except a bullpen, but enough spare starters to prevent P AAA from getting any pt at all, and that’s before they use their FOUR first round draft picks and $65 draft bucks. ’03 Shoeholder Harrisburg returns to action with an efficient mix of cheap talented youth, veteran stalwarts, near perfect balance and unbeatable depth, traits that win pennants. Note their third place finish in SJL runs scored without any player on the runs scored or RBI leader-board. The team plane would have to go down for injuries to become a factor. They also were also just graced by Dame Fortune as Alfonso Soriano unexpectedly found himself in a much better hitter’s park and with a shot to play SS. While 3rd place is this prognosticator’s prognosis, it would be no surprise for the still hungry and very talented Cockroaches to win the division, especially if the middle infield combo of Angel Berroa and Alex Cintron that exploded onto the scene in ’03 can repeat, or dare Mr. Issacs hope, improve in ’04.
Bud Selig would call the rest of the Northern Division “small market.” Order of finish here could well be determined by who decides to cash in veterans for prospects first. The Hons appear to have the most major league talent currently, but until they get rid of the manager that “guided” a team that scored 5 runs a game and had an ERA of 4.50 to a 77-85 record, they’re doomed, doomed, doomed! The Five Spot inherited a club full of old, expensive veterans a year ago and figure to get worse in the standings before they get better. The Hobgoblins made so much noise in sleepy Hagerstown when they traded for Miguel Tejada, the rowdy neighbors in Funkstown called the cops, but contention is still at least a year away for this expansion club. The Hexers’ second half collapse last year portends a difficult year ahead for Hesses east of Hershey Park, unless of course Rick Ankiel manages to return to the form he showed back when I was a wee lad. The Rippers finished ’03 ahead of the Hons while scoring nearly a run less per game and posting a higher ERA. You’d have to be a real Anglophile to think that would happen again. Still, London has an excellent bullpen and an outfield bettered only by Moline within the division. A 4th place finish is quite possible, being the first expansion club to finally top .500 is less so.
It’s downright disgusting, but the most minor league talent by far is in the same organization that has the most major league talent. (Though I’m sure a good bit of it is available for a first round draft pick or two) The major league club isn’t old anywhere and the only slightly weak spot is at catcher where Toby Hall is merely a placeholder for the systems top prospect: Guillermo Quiroz. He’s been stellar defensively, and last year his offense caught up while at AA New Haven (282/518/372). He’ll be just 22 this year when he figures to get his first major league cup o’ joe. The top pitching prospect is Brendon Claussen. The lefty looked good last year returning from 02 TJ surgery and should find himself in the mix for a starting spot in Cincy this year. He’s still being chased within the organization by Mike Jones, who had a dazzling ERA of 2.40 in AA at the ripe old age of 19. He did miss July and August with elbow tendonitis but is expected to be fine come spring. The other caution was his 47/64 BB/K ratio. 3B Andy Marte hit 285/469/372 at high A Myrtle Beach, which is a tough place to hit. He’s reputed to have a good glove, though his errors were high but not unexpected for a 19 year old. J.J. Hardy is a slick fielding shortstop and was one of the youngest players in AA in 03. He held his own with a 796 OPS and given the situation in Milwaukee he may be one of the youngest players in the Majors in 04. Moline’s class of 03 saw mixed results. Top-shelf pitching prospect Colby Lewis was part of the continuous Texas debacle, while Jessie Foppert struggled and will miss all of 04 while on the DL. Jose Reyes did not disappoint in the slightest and Jody Gerut went from a C prospect to all-star consideration, and then wrote a treatise on the sophomore slump that gets an A grade as well. (It’s somewhere on the ESPN website) The Greens’ system has talent at all positions and all levels. This is once more a dynasty.
Quiroz A- Claussen B+ Jones B+ Marte B+ Hardy B+ Jack Cust OF B 260/521/357 in balt in 83 PAs Chris Snelling of B Plays all out all the time – except when on the DL, which has been too often Adrian Gonzalez 1b B 4 different stops in 03 – none impressive Wilson Betemit 3B C+ no longer ss – has not progressed 2 yrs running, but was still in AAA at 21 last year Corey Smith 3b C+ bat speed supposed to be off the charts and had him in AA at 21 where he held his own offensively Nic Jackson of C+ Not impressive in AAA, but still young Justin Wayne rhp C+ former 1st rounder out of Stanford – finesse pitcher J.D. Closser c C+ slugging switch hitter needs to improve defensively to make it Scott Hodges 3b C+ solid all around – looked like expos 04 3b until Batista signing Jeff Francoeur of C+ 5 tool cf was in low A @ 19 in 03 Jason Grabowski c C pretty decent hitter with defensive versatility ought to be in majors Jeff Heaverlo rhp C did not rebound well from torn labrum Sheldon Fulse of C had good leadoff type #s with the Inland Empire 66ers, whatever that means (maybe Kip knows)
The Hexers ERA has grown steadily from 3.93 in 01 to 4.40 in 02 and they just missed the ERA “crown” by .03 last year, coming in at 4.95. Meanwhile their offense continues to be one of the best in the SJL. With two first round picks in last year’s supplemental draft GM Peter Hess took two excellent prospects, neither of whom pitch: SS Khalil Greene and 1B Casey Kotchman. Their first pitcher was drafted in round 4; Joe Saunders then missed all of 03 with a torn rotator cuff. Their top pitching prospect, once heralded Ben Diggins, compiled only 8 starts last year at AA Huntsville. Could this be the curse of sticking with Rick Ankiel? Given their major and minor league talent distribution, the Hexers figure to lead the league for years to come in 9-8 games.
The top Hexers prospect put tons of athleticism together with some real baseball skills last year for the first time, hitting 352/521/402 in AA. Alexis Rios then slugged 684 in winter league and is likely ready as soon as a spot opens up for him.
Rios B+ Greene B+ Kotchman B+ needs to stay healthy Kelly Shoppach c B doubles machine in Portland – good defense Diggins B- Brad Nelson 1b B- power not yet developed, but he’s just 21 Tony Alvarez of/u C+ versatility should make him useful, but it’s just wishful thinking that he’s listed on BIH’s roster in the pitchers section Robinson Cano 2b C+ 20 year old reached AA and held his own, glove a problem that could have him change positions Phil Dumatrait lhp C+ bb/k 73/106 needs to improve Valentino Pascucci of C+ made progress at AAA William Bergolla 2b C+ 52 SB makes him a good fantasy prospect Scott Thorman 1b C Casey Daigle rhp C Jesus Cota inf C Colt Griffin rhp C long way to go Saunders lhp ?
Due to the Heroes' amazing depth at the major league level, there’s little roster room left for prospects. But…as the only Northern Division team to sport two A prospects, what the Hero’s lack in quantity they make up for and more in quality. While rating their organization above the Hons, Five Spot, or Hobgoblins is mere capriciousness, they are the clear winner in blue-chippers. It starts with Sports Weekly Minor League Player of the Year Cole Hamels. The 20 year-old put up an 0.84 ERA in 74.2 IP, yielding 32 hits, 0 homers, and a 25/115 bb/k ratio in low A before ballooning to 2.73 and 32 Ks in 26.1 innings at high A. The top hitting prospect is catcher Jeff Mathis, who is the complete package, and should be ready sometime in 2005, just in time to replace Mike Piazza as the regular backstop in the middle Susquehenna Valley. His backup figures to be Rob Bowen, who was below the Mendoza line in two A ball stops in 02, then hit 306 in AA in 03, and then slugged 495 in 117 PAs at AAA. (As if we needed any more evidence that this prognosticating business is dangerous)
Hamels A Mathis A- David Wright 3b B++ showed patience, mashed doubles, played good D – everything you’d want in a 20 year-old in high A Bowen B Seung Jun Song rhp B where did the Ks go? Jose Castillo inf C+ questions re: glove resurfaced in 03, not enough stick to move to OF Brian Tallet lhp C+ Adam Johnson rhp C career may have peaked in 01 Bronson Sardinha OF C didn’t succeed in high A as 20 year-old, there’s time Freddie Bynam util C Brad Cresse c C- can’t hit a curve to save his career Nick Stocks rhp PhD (prospect hopes dim)
The Hons system is proud to boast the very rare A prospect, ss Bobby Crosby, who hit 308/544/395 in AAA. Billy Beane’s focus on plate discipline within his organization seemed to benefit Crosby greatly, as the lack thereof was the lone strike against him previously, while everything else improved along with it in 03. He appears poised to join Helton, Rolen, and Jeter (moved to 2b a year early in Baltimore?) in what could be the best infield in the SJL. (Though there are rumors that GM Al Melchior is shopping Crosby for some much needed pitching.) The system did provide right-hander James “Rich” Harden last year and Chris Capuano could provide major league starts this year from an obviously weak Brewer rotation. The lefty had a 3.34 ERA in the PCL last year coming off TJ surgery. The system’s best pitching prospect is just a bit farther away; Joel Hanrahan went 10-4 with a 2.43 ERA in AA as a 21 year old in 03, but being part of a loaded Dodger system may prevent him from seeing significant opportunity any time soon. Besides having a pretty good baseball name, Macay McBride sported ERAs of 2.12 and 2.95 the last two years in two levels of A ball. AA will be a big test for the 22 year-old lefty. Back on the offensive side, scout favorite Jason Pridie was in AA last year at 19. Some would say he held his own but an OPS under 700 says otherwise to me. His fine speed and glove get him comparisons to Johnny Damon.
Crosby A Hanrahan B+ Pridie B McBride B Corey Hart 3b B- besides bad name, had 32 errors, but was in AA at 21 Capuano C+ Esteban German 2b C+ rookie season keeps getting postponed Jason Romano util C+ Jerome Gamble rhp C Mike Rose c C Angel Santos 2b C Brian West rhp C-
The Newark management trifecta of Reggio, Torricelli, and Giunta have started the process of rebuilding this franchise the old world, ahhh, old school way, trading for picks (which were in woeful supply), and strong minor league drafting; while picking up nearly used up vets that won’t get in the way, financially or otherwise, when the youngsters are ready. In their first SJL draft, without a first or second round pick of their own, the Jersey Boss (Reggio), with help from his friends, managed to get a second round pick from the Chicago Boss, and hauled off Clint Nageotte, a starter for now but a good bet for a future stud closer as his slider dominates hitters. He’s chased as the clubs best prospect by a fellow 22 year-old right-hander, Chin-Hui Tsao, who wowed ‘em in AA in his first full season after TJ surgery (if only he weren’t in the Rocky system). With their 3rd round pick the Five Spot took lefty Ryan Hannaman, who struggled with his control and more at High A, but he still managed 99 Ks in 82 IP. With their major weakness thus strongly supplemented, in the 5th round Newark acquired SS for now Kelly Johnson, who should help with the other Spot weakness, the left side of the infield. Johnson strikes out a lot and lacks range, but still has upside as an offensive SS. (Though it’s basically over, Jose Hernandez had a nice career.) Reggio continued to pick up 3 more prospects at these positions in the late rounds including the intriguing Mike Nicolas, who couldn’t quite keep his free passes (57), including 13 HBPs! (is this a Newark kind a’ guy or what,) under his IPs (51.2).
Nageotte B++ Tsao B+ Hannaman B- Johnson B- Ryan Ludwick of B- recovered well from hip surgery, nothing more to prove at AAA Ty Howington lhp C+ 1999 first rounder finally had a healthy year in High A Brad Baker rhp C+ back in A ball to close, did well there Gerald Laird c C+ defensive c with adequate bat, should provide nice backup for Kendall in 04 Jonathon Figueroa p C+ Dominated the Sally league in 02; in 03 the league smacked him back and saddled him with a 4.94 ERA. Why was he still there? Chris O’Riordan 3b C+ did well in abbreviated stint in High A Andrew Brown rhp C+ grade B last year - 03 results: one 3up, 3down inning. Missed 00 with TJ. Is it too corny to say that’s two strikes? Calvin Pickering 1b C he still has great patience and decent pop Nicolas C Ryan Anderson lhp C perhaps there just isn’t room for two 6’10” lefties in baseball Luis Terrero of C + for tools but – for skills, 41/41 sb/cs last two years
The Hobgoblins don’t appear earlier on this list largely because they had eight highly rated prospects graduate to the majors last year, and that doesn’t include the Yankees version of rookies – Matsui and Contreras. The big three so far from the class of 03 have been 1B-OF Mark Texiera, CF Marlon Byrd, and SP Claudio Vargas. Solid improvement from any of the three youngsters will put them in all-star consideration in the next year or two. The hope in Hagerstown is that Texiera can continue to play OF or perhaps even 3B so that at least one of the other three 1B in the class of 03 can step up. Travis Hafner, Ben Broussard, and stone glove Ken Harvey all still have considerable upside as hitters. The other two rookies in 03 were the failed but still very young and talented middle infielder Brandon Phillips, and pitcher Ricardo Rodriguez, who was better than his 5.73 ERA in 15 starts with Cleveland.
With the cream of the crop gone, the Goblin’s system now provides a long list of mostly C+ prospects. The lone B+ remaining is Chad Tracy, a future batting title candidate who was voted the PCL’s best defensive 3B. If Tracy and Phillips do make it in the majors soon, the offense will be ready to contend. The pitching isn’t as far along but the organizations 3 remaining B prospects are all pitchers. Lefty Jeff Francis had a 1.83 ERA and a no-hitter after May 25 at high A. Dustin Moseley is a pretty polished pitcher who could be in the majors late this year, and fellow righty Ian Oquendo is a fast tracker who will make it more difficult to keep track by changing his name back to Ian Snell. He put up a nifty 51/145 BB/K ratio in A and AA.
Tracy B+ Francis B Moseley B Snell B Dicky Gonzalez rhp C+ 29/104 bb/k at Pawtucket, great in winter leagues David Kelton 1b/of C+ John Ford-Griffin of C+ losing luster Eric Aybar ss C+ 20 year old had abysmal BB rate, everything else looks pretty darn good Jose Bautista 3b C+ Tim Raines Jr. of C+ Alex Fernandez of C+ Reggie Abercrombie of C tools guy still has no skills, 14/164 bb/k! Donnie Bridges p C still battling big control problems Enrique Cruz util C Josh Wilson ss C
While the Cockroaches didn’t sport the 10 rookies that the Hobgoblins did in 03, they similarly graduated a number of top prospects, including AL ROY, SS Angel Berroa. Remarkably, they also brought up NL ROY candidate, SS Alex Cintron. They also drafted 2005 AL ROY candidate, SS BJ Upton, for whom 56 errors weren’t nearly enough to take the shine off his first year in pro ball. As if three young stud shortstops weren’t enough, they also picked up 2B phenom Scott Hairston, for whom defense is the only question. For now Cintron and Berroa form the middle infield combo, and with the Roaches in the pennant hunt, don’t expect to be able to pry either loose. But if an SJL owner is thinking about trading for a middle infielder for 2006, this is the place to start.
The top prospect in the Roach organization is outfielder/tool-chest Grady Sizemore, who put it all together last year in AA at 21. The only (relatively) weak point in the Chicago major league lineup is catcher, where it might not be too late for Mike Rivera to become at least part of the answer. For 2004 he figures to share the position with the younger Ben Davis. Much like the Greens and the Heroes, the Cockroaches are loaded with excellent young ballplayers, (Josh Beckett and Vernon Wells are younger than many prospects listed on these pages) and the three powerhouse organizations figure to continue to make competing in the SJL North a daunting task.
Sizemore A- Upton B+ Hairston B+ Rivera B- Chip Ambres of C+ showed some good signs in 03 Shane Loux rhp C+ ready to start the yo-yo ride Ryan Church of C Kenny Baugh rhp C with upside Cha Baek rhp C 9/50 bb/k with Inland Empire Jon Rauch rhp C Blake Williams rhp C Ben Kozlowski lhp PhD only 10 starts and a 5.43 ERA
Ripper GM Bill Young has to be commended for having the top finishing expansion team in each of the three years since the league went from 12 to 16 teams. This in a land where they’re more used to running back and forth between the wickets than counter-clockwise around the bases. But such early competitiveness has a price, in this case a lack of talent at the minor league level. While 03 wasn’t a bad year for the big league club, as it gained back the five games it lost in 02 to get within spitting distance of 500 at 79-83; several prospects had downturns, including sole call-up OF Xavier Nady, who barely cracked 700 in OPS. Joey Thurston was supposed to be the Dodgers 2B for the foreseeable future, but one year later is no longer in their plans in any capacity. Rhp Brad Baisley lost another year to injury. And former prospect, 1B Jason Hart, now seems washed up at 26. The new top prospect in the organization is lefty Sean Burnett, who does everything except get Ks, hmmm. He was shut down at the end of the year with fatigue related elbow discomfort. The top everyday prospect is 3B Kevin Youkilis. The 24 year-old had a Bonds-like OBPct of 487 in AA, but was disappointing in 127 PAs in AAA. The best upside in the organization belongs to 19 year-old 6’ 5” 220 lb (sorry, I don’t know how many stones that is) SS Joel Guzman. He’s said to have great athleticism and work ethic; the bad side was his 20/122 bb/k ratio in two class A stops. Comparisons to A-Rod are silly, which is why I had to mention it. Certainly, in the SJL, one focused supplemental draft and a bit of luck can do a lot to recharge the minor league system. Unfortunately the Rippers only have 2 fourth round picks in the first five rounds of the 04 draft. They’ll be hard pressed maintain their King-of-the-Expansion-Hill streak for much longer.
Burnett B+ Youkilis B Guzman B Koyie Hill c B- the Rippers need him now, unfortunately the Dodgers don’t Garrett Atkins 3b C+ could provide help this year, decent line drive hitter playing soon for the Rockies Thurston C Baisley C Jake Blalock 3b C Hank’s bigger, stronger, less coordinated brother Hart C- Gookie Dawkins inf C- 558 OPS in PCL
Compiled by head-Hurler Rod Rebuck. Much thanks to the patience of all the SJL owners and the Hagerstown Hobgoblin IT department. (Always try to deal with this group just after lunch, as they can be quite nasty when hungry. By all means, if you have to meet with them in person bring some raw meat. If you take out the bones you can tell them it’s Hobbit, and at that point they’ll do anything for you.) All predictions and ratings provided with the following caveat from Joaquin Andujar, who said that you could sum up baseball and life in one word “youneverknow.”