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New diseases are not the only threat to demographically fatigued stage two countries. Because population growth affects so many dimensions of a society, any of several different stresses can force a country back into stage one.
For example, in many developing countries food supplies are threatened by aquifer depletion. A forthcoming study by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) reports that in India, a country heavily dependent on irrigation, recent growth in food production and population has been based partly on the unsustainable use of water. Nationwide, withdrawals of underground water are at least double the rate of recharge
and water tables are falling by 1 to 3 meters per year.
IWMI authors estimate that as India's aquifers are depleted, its grain harvest could fall by as much as one fifth.
In a country where food and population are precariously balanced and which is adding 18 million people per year, such a huge drop in food output could create economic chaos.
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"The question is not whether population growth will slow in the developing countries," said Brown, "but whether it will slow because societies quickly shift to smaller families or because ecological collapse and social disintegration cause death rates to rise. The challenge for national governments is to assess their land and water resources, determine how many people they will support at the desired level of consumption, and then formulate a population policy to reach that goal." |
( The book itself says {pp. 66, 67}:) |
"Among the many countries that run the risk of falling back into stage one [high death rates producing stable populations] if they do not quickly check their population growth are Afghanistan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Sudan, Tanzania, and Yemen.
...
For several African countries with high HIV infection levels, this is no longer a hypothetical prospect. ... Zimbabwe ... Botswana ... Namibia ... Zambia ... Swaziland.
Other nations where ... the HIV/AIDS epidemic is spiralling out of control include Burundi, the Central African Rep., the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, and Tanzania."
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Beyond Malthus: Sixteen Dimensions of the Population Problem
(Worldwatch Paper 143),
by Lester R. Brown,
Gary Gardner,
Brian Halweil |
It also says (p.9):
"The relative contribution of population growth and rising affluence to the growth in demand for various resources varies widely. ...
Although we occasionally allude to the effect of rising affluence, no systematic effort is made to examine its consequences. Those interested ... are urged to read an earlier Worldwatch book:
How Much is Enough?, by Alan Durning."
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