The Rankin File: #3



Can we Afford to Shift the Beehive?

Wednesday, 17 September 1997

I don't want to comment on the architectural merits of the proposal to shift the Beehive and finish the Parliamentary Building. Nor do I want to comment on the long­term cost­to­benefit ratios of this proposal compared to the "Parliamentary Palace" proposal, or any other proposal to house our MPs and their staff.

I am concerned at the extreme fiscal conservatism implicit in the opposition to the proposals; conservatism that comes as much from the Left as from ACT on the far Right. One result of this very ungenerous mindset that we have adopted is that any public spending proposal is inevitably criticised, on the zero­sum assumption that any spending on one project is automatically spending lost to other projects. Representative democracy itself is threatened by this economic dryness; we come to believe that it is better to have 100 MPs than 120, and, by logical extension, that 50 MPs are better than 100.

The Beehive proposal has two important virtues. First, the implementation of the plan makes it more rather than less likely that "social wage" expenditure will be increased. And second, it is a proposal that has the potential to spark a constructive debate on the true meaning of "fiscal responsibility".

The basic economic argument is that which, though not formalised by Keynes until 1936, was understood before the publication of the General Theory. Julius Vogel launched his public works schemes in the 1870s. The citizens of Melbourne built a comprehensive sewerage scheme in the 1890s in the middle of a depression that was more severe than the Great Depression of the 1930s. And the Sydney Harbour Bridge was completed in 1934.

The general idea is that public works should be expanded at a time of waning private sector investment. 1997 is such a time in New Zealand. Such public works do not take place at the expense of other private or public projects; they have a low opportunity cost. Instead of crowding out the rest of the economy, they boost it. The multiplier effect that occurs when the public "costs" of the project become private "incomes" acts to both stimulate confidence in the private sector, and to enlarge the tax base ensuring that other public projects can be afforded even without further easing of fiscal policy.

The more profound argument - the ethical argument - notes that, in seeking to spend more on itself, the government is taking a softer approach to the concept of fiscal responsibility. The political response of the Centre and the Left therefore should not be a kneejerk reaction to block the proposal and to punish the government (and ourselves) by forcing it to spend much less on itself. Rather, it should be to exert moral suasion to expand spending on other public projects - eg on health, education, housing - in proportion with its increased spending on itself. We should be getting our politicians to explore the wider ramifications of a softer line on public expenditure at a time when they have an incentive to listen.

A number of issues are coming together as the century ends, and should become the basis of an intelligent public debate in 1998 and 1999. Those issues are the concepts of "fiscal responsibility", "fiscal contract", "social contract", "social responsibility contract", and "human rights". The government is going to have to conform with human rights legislation from 1999 (see "Credibility at stake in human rights proposal", Sunday Star­Times, 14 September), unless we allow it to exempt itself. The present Fiscal Responsibility Act - itself a dubious companion of human rights in that it puts money before people - could be used to justify such an exemption.

Is the Beehive proposal fiscally responsible? Yes, it is. But it is not in sympathy with the skinflint ethos of the 1994 Fiscal Responsibility Act. So, instead of us all behaving like Scrooge, let us get into the issues and produce a radically new Fiscal Responsibility Act; legislation that incorporates Social Responsibility proposals which go far beyond an obligation for the unemployed to seek work.

By saying we cannot afford to shift the Beehive, we are accepting the harsh logic that perpetuated the Great Depression; the logic of annual balanced budgets and acceptance of chronic unemployment. And we are accepting the moral leadership of Richard Prebble and Rodney Hide.

While I am not sure that ACT wants to get rid of MMP, the Labour leadership, in following the same fiscally conservative path, is using the issue to disavow MMP. Helen Clark (16 September) is talking about putting major political decisions on hold and having another referendum on the electoral system in 2001. The kind of expenditure paralysis suggested by Labour really would be a disaster. To further the short­term political objectives of Labour and National, it would create an artificial environment that served no purpose other than to demonise MMP.

The irony is that Labour's rejection of proportional representation in 1934 ensured that it would spend 36 of the last 48 years in opposition. (British Prime Minister, Tony Blair seems to appreciate better than Clark the longer term interests of social democratic parties.) If Clark stokes the anti­MMP sentiment to try to force a change back to First­Past­the­Post in 2002, then Labour will be consigning itself to once again being the natural party of opposition. (According to the old FPP formula which added about 7 MPs every 10 years, we would have 103 MPs in 1999 and 140 MPs in 2050, compared to 120 under MMP. The significance of MMP in fixing the size of Parliament has not often been noted.)

Let's move into the 21st century, give our MPs decent permanent accommodation and ourselves a Parliamentary complex we can be proud of, and establish a charter on social responsibility that spells out the obligation of government to pay a social wage, to conform with human rights, and to stop stigmatising the unemployed. We need a charter that recognises that we will no longer need to have more than 35 percent of our population in full­time employment, and that acts to ensure that all of our population is able to draw dividends from future productivity growth.

© 1997 Keith Rankin


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