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Updated Wednesday, September 23, 1998
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Wednesday Night on Banks

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
September 16th #863

The World Economic Outlook

Tony Deutsch DTN photo The first salvo of the evening was fired by Professor Tony Deutsch who stated: "Much as I would like to see you all repent, I do not believe that the world is coming to an end". With that reassurance, the conversation turned to the McKay Report. Please see our page on our Banks

BANKS - Open Sesame versus regulated monopoly

Opinions were sharply divided. The overall picture drawn in the room was that of a dynamic struggle between reduced competition due to mergers on the one hand, and increased competition due to foreign entrants into Canadian banking. The report below reflects the currents which will have to be taken into consideration by Finance Minister Paul Martin in deciding what to do about the mergers. He will not please everyone.

Lyda Letacq Marie Cormier DTN photo 7k Les Girls
Many deplore the disappearance of service and the on-going lack of interest in serving small business., the generator of most new jobs. The mergers will not improve either situation unless the foreign banks are allowed to compete with the Canadian banks and serve those markets.

In fact, Canadian banks are not "protected" from the foreign banks which may offer virtually all services (provided they request permission from the Inspector of Financial Institutions), but generally opt to limit their activities to the more lucrative corporate market.

The status of Foreign Banks is largely misunderstood, the only important restrictions are that they must have their own capitalisation (independent of parent institution) and may not open foreign branches (i.e. the Bank of Hong Kong may not open a subsidiary in Plattsburgh).

Richard Schultz SP senator DTN photo 6k Richard Schultz
Foreign banks emphasise import and export lending, and US banks are lending aggressively to small businesses in Canada which are carrying the growth in Canadian business.

If one wants service, go to the U.S. The attitudes are different. U.S. banks are focused on "making business" while Canadian banks are focused on making profits for their shareholders. Canadian banks are highly regulated and depositors are protected. On the other hand, of the 16,700 US banks, several thousand have failed.

But, if you start with the government-mandated advantages of the Canadian banks, should there not be a transition period similar to what we have seen in other regulated Canadian industries like telecommunications and aviation? Shouldn't citizens have the right to talk about the transition from government-protected bank industries to free enterprise industry? "At what point do non-shareholders have the right to tell banks anything?" Some of the group replied "never".

Warren Allmand 5k Warren Allmand
On the other hand, "It's in the public interest that the banks have the confidence of the Canadian people, therefore a minimum amount of regulation of all banks is necessary to ensure basic service" .

The driving force behind the mergers is not fending off big competitors … the overriding reason for the RB & BoM merger is expansion into the US. BoM has not been able to grow the Harris Bank and the Royal has not succeeded in acquiring the US toehold it seeks. The CIBC/TD merger is more driven by globalisation issues and more likely to reflect genuine corporate strategy.

Udo Stundner 6k Udo Stundner
It remains to be seen whether economies of scale will balance the economic impact of the mergers. Our "foreign banker" reminds us that "bigger is not necessarily better". Job losses due to mergers are no different than job losses due to rationalisations in any other industries, according to some, but there is a tradition in Canada that citizens have a right to their own convenient bank branch in close proximity, no matter how remote the area. However, as automation is profitable, Canadian banks will continue to push automated services and Internet banking will soon be widespread.

Ron Meisels pres PCholdings DTN photo 5k Ron Meisels pres.
A more cheerful view was introduced by Ron Meisels who pointed to what had happened in the brokerage industry; since the mergers with the banks, a number of boutique brokerage operations have sprung up. He suggests that we will soon see the same niching of financial services markets.

Meantime our banker suggested that anyone who wants banks to treat them with respect should go buy a dog.

Why do we care who owns our banks?

There are 54 banks in Canada - 43 of which are foreign-owned. The entire New Zealand banking system is foreign owned and the results are positive according to one expert.

AIR CANADA

Robin Wohnsigl 6k Robin Wohnsigl VP
Moving to another industry which has seen the introduction of increased foreign competition, Air Canada stocks are slightly oversold, says Ron Meisels. [see chart] In response to the statement that the stock price rose when the company took a firm stance against the pilots, Ron explained this with the saw, "buy on mystery, sell on history". Several people commented on the great ticket sale being promoted. This season is a traditional one for seat sales which usually are run when future bookings do not look strong. AC recently saw advanced bookings move away. Seat sales stimulate the market and are a good way of winning customers back after the strike.

JOHN CIACCIA'S RETIREMENT FROM POLITICS

John Ciaccia DTN photo John Ciaccia
Although the invitation for this Wednesday Night focused on John's analysis of the Supreme Court decision and his interest in sharing his observations, in an unusual departure for Wednesday Night, the subject of banking was so riveting that it was agreed to postpone John's comments to another evening.

Instead, he was asked a number of questions about the soon-to-come election. The most encouraging sign of a renaissance in the QLP is that a number of nominating conventions are being contested by two and three excellent new candidates. John mentioned Abitibi as a particular example. He believes that this renewal, with young, dynamic candidates is important as a counterpoint to the older, establishment candidates of the PQ. Charest will probably win the next election because of his focus on the economy and healthcare, areas in which the PQ is vulnerable.

Concern was expressed that Charest is still not comfortable with his role as a provincial party leader and has much history to learn before he can effectively identify with the Québec party and voters. Also of concern is the feeling that (Federalist) Montrealers are taken for granted by the QLP; they have no choice between voting QLP or splitting the vote and risking a return of the PQ to power. This situation is reflected in how Liberal governments in the past have dealt with the Mayor and administration of Montreal. Montreal is the Rodney Dangerfield of Québec and Montrealers, particularly but not exclusively anglophones, are increasingly resentful of this situation. With John's departure from the public arena, it is not evident who has the stature and the institutional memory to defend these interests.

On behalf of John's loyal Wednesday Night fans and the broader constituency which he has served for 25 years, David Marler, gave a graceful speech thanking John for his wisdom and long service, and looking forward to the fact that Wednesday Night will no longer have to compete with the Assemblée nationale for John's presence.

With that, small groups formed to continue debate on politics and banking….

Notes by Carroll McCormick and Gerald Ratzer Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson




John Ciaccia DTN photo John Ciaccia
Attach is the Press Release containing the sad news (for Quebec) of John Ciaccia's decision NOT to run again. But John is happy with his decision, so we will celebrate it tomorrow night, knowing that Wednesday Night will no longer have to compete with Cabinet meetings for John's presence. And maybe we'll soon be able to send the following message (courtesy Barry Lazar):

"John Ciaccia spent last Wednesday Night reading all 450 pages of the Starr report and confides that it is an even better document than he initially believed. John will share his thoughts with us on this and other matters this Wednesday - AND DAVID WILL ENJOY IT!

for the press

Mont-Royal, September 14, 1998 - The Member of the National Assembly for Mont-Royal and Dean of the National Assembly of Québec, Mr. John Ciaccia has announced his decision to retire from active political life. Although he will not be a candidate for the forthcoming provincial election, he will remain as MNA for Mont-Royal until the end of his mandate.

Recently Mr. Ciaccia met the with the Québec Liberal Party Leader, Jean Charest, to inform him of his decision and to assure him of his active support during the next election campaign.

Mr. Ciaccia was elected for the first time 25 years ago, in October 1973. During his outstanding political career he has held sensitive and important portfolios under two Premiers. In the cabinets of Robert Bourassa, John Ciaccia was Minister of Energy and Resources, and later of International Affairs. He also was the member of Cabinet responsible for Native Affairs. In the Cabinet of Daniel Johnson, Mr. Ciaccia was reconfirmed Minister of International Affairs with additional responsibility for Immigration and Cultural Communities.

"Although my life in politics has included its share of challenges" said Mr. Ciaccia," it is with a great sense of serenity and content that I will be leaving my seat in the National Assembly".

Blessed with good health and energy and anxious to pursue other professional interests, Mr. Ciaccia leaves active political life in the firm conviction that the Party that he has always represented is well positioned to win the next election.

He wishes to extend his heartfelt thanks to the members of his family and to all those who have supported him during his political career, particularly the constituents of Mont-Royal whose loyalty and confidence have been an inspiration.

-30-

This Wednesday Night, September 16th, David will overcome his obsessive aversion to matters constitutional.

John Ciaccia spent last Wednesday Night reading all 70+ pages of the Supreme Court Decision and confides that it is an even better document than he initially believed. John will share his thoughts with us on this and other matters this Wednesday - AND DAVID WILL ENJOY IT!

As we write these words, we do not yet know the outcome of the Sherbrooke by-election, nor what effect that might have on Premier Bouchard's decision when to call a provincial election. We have heard that the call might come as early as this Wednesday, as late as October 26th…. Each rumor sounds good, til the next one comes along. (Sounds like the stock markets, doesn't it)

Those who were with us Wednesday # 862 will remember Robin's predictions regarding the Air Canada strike… pretty accurate, except we don't remember him mentioning the $150 shoe allowance.

However, this is an indicator that there is always an interesting insight, an accurate prediction, a bit of news that comes out of Wednesday Night. If you can't be with us, at least share in the events by visiting the website.

David and Diana Nicholson

please see Mr Paragon on the report on Banks

Stocks surged on Wall Street Monday 9/14/98 amid hopes that stability is returning to the Japanese and Russian economies. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 1.9%, to about 7945, edging back into positive territory for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 24 points, or 1.5%, to 1666.

IN THE ECONOMIST THIS WEEK

Already Bill Clinton is an unwanted and diminished president, and he may soon be in worse trouble * After the PC: the coming era of pervasive computing * The case against capital controls * Russia on the rocks * Why Rupert Murdoch should be allowed to buy Manchester United * Could mobile phones replace fixed lines? * America and cultural imperialism *

Wednesday, September 16, 1998 Nortel BUY Scotia McLeod



Just in and worth a read

 OECD Secretary-General Donald Johnston
Secretary-General
Donald Johnston
You may have seen the example drawn from work of the World Bank and others illustrating that if the world's population were to shrink to 100 people with existing ratios, there would be:

60 Asians, 13 Europeans, 13 Africans and 14 from the Western hemisphere; half of the entire world's income would be produced by only 12 people; 44 would not have access to proper sanitation; 20 would suffer from malnutrition; 32 would be under the age of 15; 23 over the age of 15 would be unable to read and write; and 2 would have a college education; OECD countries account for approximately 60% of the world's wealth with 20% of the world's population.

Please see the QSPELL events List and last Wednesday Night onRUSSIA

WEDNESDAY 16, Sept. #863

Do see Wednesday night on Russia

and #862 AC strike Night

WEDNESDAY 9, Sept. 1998
Ron Meisles " The market had a selling climax on Monday, which was probably also a major cycle low, so here we go up and up into the wild blue yonder (maybe we will have to do a bit of backing and filling first, but who cares)."

Socia McLeod "...Thus, ranges of roughly 7550 to 8050 on the Dow and 5530 to 6000 on the TSE remain our best guesses for the market through October.

DTN my range on the chart is 7100 to 8300 for the forseeable future. IE wait to commit your cash. Peter F. Trent said buy last Wednesday. "what does he know.." he made money. It seems "SnowFlake" said sell in Early August! More later.

click for
Susan Eyton-Jones Susan Eyton-Jones
Susan Eyton-Jones
September 1, 1998 - Progressive Conservative Members of Parliament today announced their priorities for the fall session in the House of Commons. [good read DTN 11k]

Wednesday Night guests have often heard our host suggest that once the "veil of the threat of separation is lifted, THEN we will understand what our real problems are: bureaucracy, taxes, impediments to entrepreneurship, discouragement of productivity...."

Will these now become more evident and will the governments do something to solve them? Will we have a Fall election?
How do The People feel about the learned discussions?
How will their and our lives improve?

Julius Grey, felled by the flu and sinusitis last week, should be back and can discuss his take on 50-plus-one.

John CiacciaJohn Ciaccia We cannot promise that all the players from last week (see: Wed #860 with John Ciaccia)will return, but we CAN promise an interesting and stimulating evening - especially if you are with us.



to Ciaccia SITES
Diana and David Nicholson

Guests to bring - wisdom - and a bottle or two.

S T O C K M A R K E T

Wednesday, September 30, 1998

Portfolio Strategy - John McColl
While acknowledging all the volatility, we do appear to be accumulating evidence that the market is climbing the worry wall, probably as worst case scenarios for near-term corporate profits are digested in the context of new lows in bond yields and prospective Fed easing. In our last meltdown note (September 18, 1998 - "Where We're At"), we observed the positive action in the Dow Utilities, which have indeed followed through to new all-time record highs earlier last week. The next major milestone for the DJIA is 8523.95. That level could take a lot of work - at present the trading range seems to be migrating higher, but we still frown over the risk of remaining Q3 earnings disappointments. Something must still also be done on Japanese banking, elections (Germany, Brazil, Australia) might present complications, and who knows what surprise upsets from hedge funds might remain in the wind.

The most contentious issue confronting investors of course involves 1999 earnings growth. Six of the top 20 weighted stocks (collectively amounting to about a fifth of the TSE300) are estimated to have growth potential averaging about 25% - and in each case their are a variety of company specific factors supporting a positive EPS view. Many of the heavily-weighted financials are likely to post positive compares. Unless of course there's a global recession, but that's not our macro call.

Tuesday, September 29, 1998 14:40
The Federal Reserve voted to cut its target for the U.S. federal-funds rate by one-quarter percentage point, to 5.25%, and opted to keep the discount rate unchanged. Some analysts had expected the central bank to make a deeper cut, owing to concerns about a spillover in the U.S. from global financial turmoil.
Wednesday, September 30, 1998 Rates fall to aid economy but some say it's not enough The U.S. Federal Reserve Board moved to limit the spread of global economic contagion yesterday by lowering a key interest rate, sparking a similar cut by the Bank of Canada.

Saturday, September 26, 1998 Fund rescued to prevent market chaos Lenders try cutting losses with Long-Term bailout Brian Milner And Andrew Willis

The 14 powerful financial institutions pumping more than $3.5-billion (U.S.) into crippled hedge fund operator Long-Term Capital Management LP said yesterday they acted to prevent disruption in global financial markets that could stem from "a precipitous liquidation of the portfolio."

Peerless Carpet endorses U.S. takeover bid Konrad Yakabuski Montreal -- Peerless Carpet Corp., Canada's sole publicly traded rug maker, has agreed to be vacuumed up by a giant U.S. competitor three months after a factory fire threatened to stall the company's hard-won financial turnaround.

Friday, September 25, 1998 EBAY WENT PUBLIC on the Nasdaq Stock Market at $18 a share and rapidly vaulted to nearly triple that level, sending a loud signal that, even in a jittery market, investors are still ready to go bananas over a hot Internet stock.

Wednesday, September 16, 1998 Nortel BUY Scotia McLeod




Peter Trent Please see the account of recent Wednesdays' fascinating discussions at:








Pristine's
Morning Comment
Buy - Sell
Closing Mkt Comments

Market Brirfing


  • BARE MKT? see Andrew de Courcy-Ireland list TSE 35
    Thank you Andrew de Courcy-Ireland




  • REPORT ON BUSINESS

    Wednesday, September 02, 1998 How the West can save Wall Street By Peter Cook Brussels -- In these first days of September, when the world should be getting down to serious work, surreal personalities and events continue to flit across a darkening world stage. Unless these summer ghosts can be banished, it looks as though the world is in for an extraordinarily rough economic ride.

    Most bizarre of all have been events in free-market Hong Kong, monetarist Milton Friedman's favourite spot on the whole globe. Its government, admittedly a gang that changed its spots with the handover to Beijing one year ago, has just spent $15-billion (U.S.) buying shares so that the stock market wouldn't fall. What happened when it stopped doing this -- with an eye to how quickly it might use up the $97-billion in reserves it inherited from its oppressive time as a British colony -- Mr. Friedman could have predicted. The market plunged by 7 per cent in a few hours.



    Clippings from the street

    Yahoo Business Headlines

    Full Coverage:Business:Stock Market

    Tuesday, August 11, 1998 UK Are the bears awake?

    ../westweb/ Stock Market Forecasts

    [I:INDU = Dow 30 C:SNC / C:TSEA]
     Name or symbol: for
    by Stephen Jarislowsky
    Jarislowsky on the Stock market
    Jarislowsky on Westmount a must read



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