Ruling party questions the results of survey by former PRI pollster
06/21/2000
By Alfredo Corchado and Laurence Iliff / The Dallas Morning News
MEXICO CITY – A former longtime pollster for Mexico's ruling party says her latest poll indicates a big victory for opposition presidential candidate Vicente Fox.
The national survey by Maria de las Heras goes sharply against the conventional wisdom that the race is neck-and-neck between Mr. Fox and ruling party candidate Francisco Labastida, both of whom cite internal and independent polls giving them an advantage.
Ms. de las Heras' survey projects Mr. Fox winning by 10 percentage points. The poll was commissioned by a group of Mexican investors, she said, and not by the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
"The race is simply not as competitive as people say," she said. "What I have discovered is that this is not the Mexico that we once knew. The country has moved away from the PRI."
The now-independent pollster said her poll indicates that Mr. Fox of
the center-right National Action Party received the support of 44 percent
of those surveyed, compared with 34 percent for Mr. Labastida. Leftist
candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas received 16 percent, and two minor candidates
got the rest.
Results questioned
The PRI immediately questioned the accuracy of the poll by Ms. de las
Heras' Demotecnia polling firm.
"That's unbelievable. It has nothing to do with reality," said Javier
Treviño, a top aide to Mr. Labastida. "What is important to look
at is not a particular poll, but trends, and what we have seen is that
Francisco Labastida is rising."
Democracy advocates say that the results of the Demotecnia poll – which indicate that the presidential race may not be as close as expected – shouldn't be particularly surprising. Some charge that Mexican media are afraid to publish any surveys showing Mr. Fox ahead for fear of angering the powerful ruling party and jeopardizing lucrative advertising.
"This is very suspicious," said political analyst José Antonio Crespo. "Why is it that polls showing Fox ahead have such trouble being made public?"
"Obviously, this is good news for the campaign, but it doesn't come as a surprise to us," said Juan Hernández, a Fox campaign adviser. "We are glad that someone is finally telling the truth publicly."
Ms. de las Heras' long career with the PRI spans decades. She conducted polls for the 1994 PRI presidential candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio, who was assassinated four months before the election. She also worked for Tabasco Gov. Roberto Madrazo, who competed against Mr. Labastida in the PRI presidential primary last November.
Ms. de las Heras insists that she has no personal vendetta against either Mr. Labastida or the PRI, the party to which she said she remains devoted. Furthermore, she said she is no friend of Mr. Fox, a man she describes as too conservative and flaky for her taste.
"There's nothing more that I want than for the PRI to win," said the pollster, whose husband is a PRI candidate for Congress. "But we need to stop fooling ourselves."
Ms. de las Heras said the PRI must reform itself if it is to retain the dominance of Mexico politics it has enjoyed for seven decades.
She said the PRI is controlled by market-oriented economists who have lost touch with their countrymen, especially in rural areas where even the conservative opposition is making impressive inroads.
"Mexicans are very downtrodden," she said. Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo "talks about the benefits of macroeconomics, but people have yet to see a peso in their pockets."
She noted that since the last presidential election in 1994, the PRI has lost several states to the opposition, including Nayarit, Queretaro, Nuevo Leon and Aguascalientes. Even the capital, Mexico City, is governed by the opposition.
"The anti-PRI vote is with Fox," she said. "Fox's strategy has been brilliant in capturing the anti-PRI vote. People simply want the PRI out of power."
But as perilous as the PRI's future may look, Ms. de las Heras said
she still believes in her party and in the social justice that at least
for the first decades of its existence the PRI was able to deliver.
"We have to move forward, and the only way to move forward is by telling
the truth," said Ms. de las Heras, author of the 1999 book, The Use and
Abuse of Opinion Polls: Scenarios for the 2000 Elections. "The truth is
our most important ally."
Respected pollster
Among pollsters, Ms. de las Heras is considered serious, competent and reliable.
"Maria de las Heras is an intelligent woman and an absolutely credible pollster," said Rafael Jiménez, a former pollster for two of Mexico City's leading newspapers and now head of an independent polling company that does work for Mr. Fox. "She is someone that I have admired for years and someone who should be commended for her courage to speak the truth."
Mr. Jimenez's ARCOP polling firm has Mr. Fox ahead of Mr. Labastida by 4 percentage points and gaining in momentum.
Ms. de las Heras' poll consisted of 2,054 in-home interviews in 31 states, using a standard random sample, along with her analysis of voter behavior based on a model developed while working for the PRI. Mr. Fox's 10-percentage point victory is based on a relatively low voter turnout of 58 percent. Mr. Fox's winning margin widens with a higher turnout, which could also threaten the PRI's grip on the Mexican Senate, she said. The ruling party lost the lower house to the opposition in 1997.
Only if turnout falls to a historical low of 51 percent does Mr. Labastida edge out Mr. Fox by a single percentage point, according to Ms. de las Heras' analysis.
Voter turnout in the 1994 presidential race was 78 percent. Ms. de las Heras predicted a similar turnout this year.
PRI officials say Ms. de las Heras will be surprised on election day.
"I think she's wrong," said Mr. Treviño, the campaign spokesman. "She's missing the point that we are not only counting on the traditional vote, but also to other elements of society.''