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I was disappointed that Vernor Vinge didn't go to any great length to explore the concept of a Singularity. Some evidence is presented that the human race advanced at breakneck speed shortly before it vanished, but aside from that and a brief definition of a Singularity for the reader's sake there is not much else. After reading the novel I started giving some in-depth thought to the concept one insomniac night. Presented here are some of my Mental Meanderings in regards to an occurrence of a Singularity. For the sake of clarity I'm going to call everyone "human" and stay away from the trans- and post- prefixes. Hope I didn't just offend anyone. :-) Here is a brief who/what/when/where/why/how of the Singularity.
WHAT: A Singularity can be defined in non-cosmological terms as that point in (human) history when the rate of change of progress, evolution, technology, and/or society (excuse the vagueness) accelerates to the point where nothing in the immediate future can reliably be conceived. Vinge defines it as that point where progress no longer remains exponential, and new models are needed to describe it.
WHY: I don't think this one needs much discussion, does it? Except for a conservative-led return to the Dark Ages, or some cataclysm, there's not all that much that could prevent a Singularity from eventually happening. (But see "BARRIERS" below.)
WHO: It is doubtful that a Singularity would "hit" the entire human race at once. I believe it will be a gradual occurrence (relatively speaking ;-). There will be some humans who will be content not to advance beyond a given point. There will undoubtedly also be those who will miss it altogether -- some of the more religious, people in stasis, those who are a considerable distance from Earth, or people just too "lazy" to keep up with the rest of the world. Others (many, perhaps most) may eventually simply be unable to keep up due to insufficiently-advanced resources or brainpower, and will lag or fall behind. (In times of high exponential growth this could be a Bad Thing for you.) Think of it as a sort of "reverse cascade," where the state-of-the-art skyrockets "upwards & outwards" with humans trailing off in increasing amounts, still progressing but at slower rates, falling away from the lead.
WHERE: As the Singularity draws near, third-world countries are likely to be at least as advanced as today's first-worlders. But it will likely be the first-world countries of tomorrow, areas where the most progress is being made, where the Singularity will hit first. From there it would branch out globally, eventually reaching very remote areas and off-planet locations. (Providing, of course, that the super-advanced are willing to "let in" their gnat-brained fellows. :-)
WHEN: I won't attempt to make a guess as to specific years, but I think a timescale of our future can be constructed in terms of relative historic milestones:
1. Significant progress in nanotechnology is made. Most humans become materially self-sufficient. However, information, energy, and human services are still in demand.
2. Advanced nanotech arises, giving humans access to virtual immortality and ungodly-powerful computers.
3. Some means is developed to give humans self-sufficiency in energy, i.e. energy consumption is no longer of major concern. (Side note: Vinge had a promising idea here, distilling matter & anti-matter off the surface of the sun. Would this be feasable, with sufficient technology?)
4. Relatively soon after comes the fabled "Singularity," where us humans take a flying swan-dive off the scale of progress.
5. Although it's impossible to know everything (just try reading every copy of "Nature" ever printed :-), eventually humans will become effectively information-sufficient. Virtually anything that can be known (or deduced) will be available for recall or through some form of advanced hypertext net.
6. ???? (See "WHAT NEXT?")
HOW: Rapid information propagation is essential for a Singularity to occur. Also needed is flexibility of form -- the actual ability to advance through evolution of mind & body, and through changes in your environment. (Can you presently upgrade your computer by orders of magnitude?) In the evolution of the mind is also the evolution of a society's culture, mores, memes, etc. as a whole. Utility fog would be very helpful, perhaps even essential, as a tool of change. Also, rapid evolution is likely to occur when many humans are in what Vinge terms "deep connect" -- an AI-aided state of VR which progresses more rapidly than real time. If you think the Net is sophisticated now.... (Oooh, I'm wringing my hands just thinking about it. >:-)
BARRIERS: Of course, progress is not strictly exponential. There are many frictional forces acting to slow it down. (I think "frictional", rather than "entropic", is a more accurate term, because many of these forces are reactive in nature, like the physics definition of friction.) For instance, markets have a limited rate at which new innovations can be introduced. This could be helped for products (and perhaps techniques and some services) by having the product's description and/or information downloaded to your assembler tank or AI instead of waiting for it to be made in a factory then shipped to a store. However, I think the market should be able to handle the rate of new innovations, as is, up until just a few years before a Singularity.
I also think more progress could be made in an atmosphere of open and free information; this means we may have to rethink our system of copyrights & patents. (Then again, I'm no legal eagle.)
Farther down the road, the speed of information propagation and dissemination could become key. And I don't just mean the time it takes a packet to travel around the globe; it will still take time to conduct experiments, devise & test new theories, upgrade & evolve, etc.
Then of course there's cultural resistance. You have those who are fearful of change, your anti-progress religious factions, or just plain stubborn folk. Politics poses a peculiar hazard, since this is where the laws are (presently) made. Already we are seeing instances where lawmakers are unable to keep up with current technology (cf. cloning "debate"), unaware of things they should be and fearful of those things that they are aware of. Let's not forget Our Friend the FDA.
WHAT NEXT?: Even when I was young and believed in an afterlife, I was always asking that question. When you get to heaven, what next? Once we can live forever, what next?
Just the same, what comes after the Singularity? One possibility for the dreamers out there is that, like in Vinge's novel, mankind will transcend to another plane of existence. (Physically? Mentally? Evolutionarily? And after that, "What next?") Another possibility is that we will turn to more universal concerns. For instance, halting its infinite expansion. Or doing real evolution experiments by seeding planets with life. Or maybe we'll find some way to create our own universes, not just in VR but for real.
One possibility which I think is disturbing but nonetheless one of the more likely to occur is a sort of regression, or de-evolution. That is not to say we'll give up our science and advances and god-like statuses. But once humans have attained self-sufficiency in materialism, energy, and information, I think we're going to start turning to our right brains; that is, an increased emphasis on the arts, emotional issues (by which I mean things such as romance and adventurism, not abortion or religion), and entertainment. After a long period of lightning advances, at the peak of progress we'll taper off and perhaps experience a "New Grand Renaissance."
In the far future, postside of the Singularity, what will happen to us as a whole? Will we somehow mass-assimilate into one entity, such as in the fog cloud evolutionary scenario? Or will the emphasis be on the individual, with each of us going our separate physical and evolutionary ways? Perhaps we will decide that continued progress can best be achieved through working together, effectively (or actually) becoming one; or maybe diversity will win out for the sake of variety in life.
Even after material goods, energy, and even information are no longer in demand, excepting a nihilist streak there will always be demand for one thing: the experiences of life.
Well enough of my philosophical speculations. I'm sure plenty of you folks out there have something you'd like to argue or add to the above, and besides that, I want to see responses. So get those editors going! :-)
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