EKDIDONAI


EKDIDONAI


Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 10:41:23 -0800 (PST)
Subject: azerbaijan to turkey to an SUV

oil in the caucasus region?

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/caucasus_cntrl_asia_pol_00.jpg
note on map that chechnya (groznyy) is only about 300 miles from azerbaijan & turkey.

i was astonished to see just how small chechnya is relative to the whole of russia (0.094%).
map of chechnya (5,790 square miles):
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/chechnya_rel01.jpg
map of russia (6,147,072 square miles):
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/russia_auton96.jpg

here is an interesting map of the caucasus as of 1994 which shows energy resources, courtesy of the state dept:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/caucasus_region_1994.jpg

an article from pravda.ru from 10/15/01 about oil in chechnya:
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/2001/10/15/18102.html

world oil production statistics, courtesy of dept of energy:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#ProductionA
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/tableg2.html
in 2000, the world's top 10 oil producers were saudi arabia (9124KB/d), the US (9058KB/d), russia (6711KB/d), iran (3783KB/d), mexico (3478KB/d), norway (3320KB/d), china (3249KB/d), venezuela (3136KB/d), canada (2763KB/d), and iraq (2587KB/d). saudi arabia and the US each produced more than eastern europe (8349), more than asia & oceania (8096), more than africa (8005), more than central & south america (6974), and more than western europe (6877). the oil pipeline discussed in the article below would supply about 1000KB/d, which as you can see from the above stats is a non-trivial quantity; it would be 11% of US oil production, or 15% of russia's oil production, or 40% of iraq's oil production.

world oil consumption stats:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table12.html

at the bottom of this email i have pasted a list of calculations i did concerning certain countries' oil reserves as of 1/1/01 as a percentage of oil consumption in 2000. the results are not surprising: generally those countries that hoard oil are on bad terms with the US, whereas generally those countries that do not hoard oil are on good terms with the US - as for which is the cause and which the effect, that i cannot calculate.

hypothesis: russia wants chechnya for its proximity to and possession of oil. the US obviously shares russia's interest in oil in the region (see below).

-ekdidonai

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http://reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1655038

ConocoPhillips to Buy Part of Pipeline
October 30, 2002 08:17 AM ET

BAKU, Azerbaijan (Reuters) - Oil major BP said on Wednesday it will sell a 2.5 percent stake in the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline project from Azerbaijan to Turkey, to U.S. energy company ConocoPhillips.

BP, which is leading the $2.95 billion plan to build a one million barrel per day link by 2005 to ship Caspian crude to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, will keep 30.1 percent in the project and remain its operator, the firm said in a statement.

"We welcome ConocoPhillips' entry into the project as a further demonstration of its significance as a major future oil export route from the southern Caspian," the statement quoted the head of BP Azerbaijan David Woodward as saying.

ConocoPhillips' representative in Baku-Ceyhan David Bairrington said in the statement: "The Caspian is of strategic importance to ConocoPhillips and we believe that our participation in the BTC project will further enhance our upstream portfolio in the region."

The U.S.-backed Baku-Ceyhan link was long dismissed as too costly and lacking oil, but the project received a boost this year when BP said the group of giant Azeri fields held more reserves than previously believed and enough to fill the link.

Shortly after the announcement French TotalFinaElf joined the project, while Japan's INPEX also decided to team up with the consortium in September, when construction works begun.

The consortium now includes Azeri state oil firm SOCAR with 25 percent, U.S. group Unocal with 8.9 percent, Norway's Statoil with 8.71 percent, Turkish TPAO with 6.53 percent, ENI and TotalFinaElf each with 5.0 percent, Japan's Itochu with 3.4 percent, INPEX with 2.5 percent and Saudi Arabia's Delta Hess 2.36 percent.

ConocoPhillips is involved in one Azeri offshore oil exploration project, Zafar-Mashal, led by U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil.

-----------------------------------------

oil reserves as of 1/1/01 as a percentage of oil consumption in 2000. there is a telling pattern.

Kuwait 31.64%
United Arab Emirates 30.09%
Iraq 24.46%
Saudi Arabia 20.13%
Venezuela 16.42%
Libya 16.39%
Nigeria 8.65%
Iran 8.31%
Norway 4.79%
Algeria 4.49%
Russia 1.94%
Central & South America 1.84%
Mexico 1.42%
World Total 1.35%
Malaysia 0.85%
Argentina 0.63%
Egypt 0.55%
China 0.50%
Indonesia 0.48%
Brazil 0.38%
Australia 0.34%
United Kingdom 0.29%
India 0.24%
Canada 0.23%
Western Europe 0.12%
United States 0.11%
Pakistan 0.06%
Turkey 0.04%
South Africa 0.01%
Israel 0.00%


ekdidonai@yahoo.com
last updated: 10.30.2002