Scottish Proverb
Many people from home can't comprehend how China would be doing anything but bluffing with all the economic ties and investments at stake (unlike say Russia and Chechenia). When you talk to mainland Chinese however (as many news reporters have) you realize that for the Chinese this is an extremely important nationalistic issue and more important than temporary economic gain. Even Chinese from as far away as Malaysia think China should declare war (I wonder if they would be so happy if China invaded Malaysia?). Once this is taken more seriously the whole thing takes on a different light.
The next point of disagreement is whether China could be successful in taking over Taiwan. Many foreigners again falsely assume that China would be much stronger military than Taiwan. Actually the opposite is true. Taiwans had a lot of technology transfers from America and are more advanced anyway. The Economist joked that China would have to invade on fishing boats they are so backwards. In short while China has numerical superiority in most areas Taiwans military technology is far more advanced and is superior overall.
Things are changing fast however. Over the last decade China has been upgrading with more sophisticated technology from Russia etc (and they recently increased their military budget by 15% or so in the year 2000 and plan to increase it by 17.7% in 2001, far faster than their economic growth rate) and Taiwan military leaders are warning that by 2005 China will comprehensively overtake Taiwan even if they brought all the armaments that the Bush administration has offered them. The only way that they could defeat Taiwan at present would be to bomb it to pieces. China presently has 300 mislies aimed at Taiwan alone and is adding to that at a rate of about 50 per year.
The next issue is then: would the US step into the middle of what could possibly be a significant war? American presidents so far have expressed a deliberate "strategic ambiguity" on this point. While they have helped Taiwan a lot they have also refused to sell them some of the technology that they need to defend themselves. Taiwan is an important democratic point man and they don't really want to see them disappear. BUT on the other hand they havn't wanted to commit to a conflict that could really escalate. So we have a situation where they have given Taiwan some technology and done other things to try and deter China but it hasn't really worked effectively. China has been increasingly stepping up large scale military exercises. America meanwhile denies that theres anything out of the ordinary with these exercises because if they accepted it some public opinion would give more pressure to take a harder line against China which as stated earlier they havn't really wanted to do (Chinas a nuclear power).
At least that has been the case up till now. Recently though President Bush said in a statement that his administration would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan but he latter backtracked on this removal of ambuguity. Still it was interesting in as far as it reveals his intentions/attitudes.
The question then is if China did initiate military action would America be able to help Taiwan? Yes quite possibly. But China could get around this by making the attack so quick that it would all be over before it began and America would just have to resort to other pressures. And theres always the missiles aimed at Taiwan.
Is it a foregone conclusion then that China will invade? Definitely not. There are many variables. The Taiwanese for the most part prefer holding the status quo although President Chen talks of Taiwan as being an independant country but there is no official declaration that would force China to act. The Taiwanese people may accept in the end that they have little choice (people here are slowly accepting the reality, but many are in denial, they have a lot to be in denial about). Eventually China would become too powerful economically and militarily to resist. The political situation here may change (its always volatile) and they may resume endless negotiations with China to delay things. There are many points of divergence and things could change in just a few months.
Latest developments indicate some grounds for hope although the Taiwanese may not view it that way. We start with the assumption that reunification is inevitable one way or another. By 2050 Chinas economy is expected to be as large as Americas and nobody will be able to stop them retaking Taiwan. But this is also the only real basis for hope as Lew Kwan Yew the senior minister of Singapore points out. He's an incredibly acute analyst and not without his own vested interests, but on this I think he could be on the up and up. As long as the elite in China belive that Taiwan can't be "lost" since China is destined to become the next superpower then they won't jump the gun and invade. Under President Chen Taiwan is opening up more and more to China and at some stage their economy will be so entwined with Chinas that they will have no choice but to do Beijings bidding. Of course this is all strongly opposed by pro-independance politicians like ex-president Lee, but in Taiwan politics is mostly controlled by big business who are strongly for opening up to and investing in China (it all comes down to money). The idea is that Beijing won't have to forsake temporary economic progress by invading since reunification will be inevitable with Taiwans increasing dependance and Chinas growing economic might.
Bottom line is that there doesn't seem to be any imminent danger but war breaking out in the next five years is a definite possibility. As the RAND organization (a US based think tank) points out other possibilities include harrassment of Taiwanese shipping at sea via missile attacks or with Chinas new subs, a forceful quarantine of the islands ports etc, all of which could have serious economic impacts. The main point for teachers however is that things are fine now and should stay that way for a while yet. Just don't keep your money in Taiwan dollars. Stay tuned!
