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Quarterbacks |
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Quarterbacks
Welcome to the 2006 FantasyGuys
preseason quarterback rankings for fantasy football. It’s only mid July, but it’s
never too early (or late for that matter) to discuss football. At this point in the offseason, there is a
limited amount of information available to make intelligent decisions on player
rankings. Starters have yet to be
confirmed, injuries have yet to occur, and of course no games have been played
to show us which players’ talents have grown or dropped off.
With that in mind, here’s the
mystery behind the green curtain that is this year’s rankings. Each projected starter was analyzed for
critical statistics over the last 5 regular seasons (2001-2005). A season was only considered if the player appeared
in at least 10 games. Total fantasy
points over the time period were considered (1 point per 20 passing yards, 1
point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per TD scored), as were average points
per season and the standard deviation of average points per season. Once the numbers were properly crunched,
offseason moves were added to the discussion.
Consistency and talent along the offensive line is critical for a
QB’s success, as is the threat of a running game and a wide receiver that
can actually catch the ball. A lousy
defense means a team has to play from behind more often and will be forced to
go to the air on a regular basis.
Expected strengths of division opponents counts for something, as does
the philosophy of the head coach.
Finally, an eye of newt was mixed into the quadratic formula and the
rankings below became reality. One of
the most interesting revelations from the study was this: the most durable QB’s are also the most
productive. OK, Einstein, I realize that
a player has to be healthy to score points.
I’m talking about average production here though –
QB’s that play more often average more points per season. Of the 32 projected starters for 2006, only 7
appeared in 10 or more games in each of the past 5 seasons. Five of them are in the top 8 in terms of
average fantasy points per season.
Credit a running game and an offensive line for keeping QB’s
healthy and allowing them to be consistent and productive.
Without further do, on to the rankings. Enjoy, and may they serve you well - as long as you’re not playing against me.
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Ranking |
Player |
Team |
Comments |
|
1 |
Peyton Manning |
Colts |
Despite last
year’s drop-off from 2004 (did you really think he would set another
NFL record for touchdown passes?), the loss of Edgerrin James, and more
mileage on Marvin Harrison, expect production and consistency from Peyton
once more. First-round pick Joseph
Addai and veteran Dominic Rhodes should fill James’ shoes
adequately. Offseason losses were
mostly on defense and the o-line was untouched. |
|
2* |
Donovan McNabb |
Eagles |
When he stopped playing
after 9 games last year, he was on pace to have a 28 TD, 4400+ yard passing
season. Compare that to 31 TD’s
and 3875 yards the previous year with T.O. on the team. We know McNabb is talented, we know
he’s tough and professional, and we know he’s motivated to prove
he can do it without Owens. Now we
know he’s capable of performing without Owens as well. Although the NFC East is a tough division,
the Eagles get to play |
|
3 |
Tom Brady |
Patriots |
Brady has been Mr.
Clutch throughout his career. Last
year, he had his best fantasy year to date despite a lackluster Patriots
running game and increased pressure for offensive output due to defensive
injuries. Simply put, he had his best
games when his team needs him the most.
With the Patriots offseason moves making them seem vulnerable, my gut
tells me Brady will rise to the occasion yet again and put up great numbers. |
|
4 |
Drew Bledsoe |
Cowboys |
Take last
year’s 5th highest scoring fantasy quarterback and add
Terrell Owens, a healthy Flozell Adams, a couple of new veteran free agents
along the offensive line, and another high draft pick spent on a pass
catching tight end. That’s worth
at least one step up in the rankings, don’t you think? |
|
5 |
|
Bengals |
All reports out of |
|
6 |
Eli Manning |
Giants |
Eli now has a
season and a half of starting experience to draw upon along with an
embarrassing playoff performance to motivate him. You could argue he belongs even higher on
this list after last season’s breakthrough, and if you’re feeling
daring then promote him accordingly. I
like a bit more proven history before spending a high pick on a quarterback
but Eli’s upside is enormous. |
|
7 |
Jake Delhomme |
Panthers |
The Panthers seem
to be a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. I don’t know if that will happen or
not, but I’ll bet on Delhomme having a nice season with Keyshawn
(MeShawn) Johnson added to the mix to free up Steve Smith. If any of |
|
8 |
Brett Favre |
Packers |
In the first half
of last season, Favre threw for 15 TD’s and 2064 yards. He only threw 5 TD passes the rest of the
season. Did the mileage catch up with
him or was it the unending stream of injuries to the offense? I don’t know, but putting Favre in
the top 10 without Javon Walker isn’t crazy considering how productive
Favre was able to be last year without Walker, a running back, or an
offensive line. And if this year is
truly Favre’s last, the ultimate warrior will be sure to finish strong. |
|
9 |
Jake Plummer |
Broncos |
Jake’s inconsistencies
are frustrating to Broncos fans, I’m sure. But in fantasy world, all we care about are
numbers and Jake has put them up since he’s been in |
|
10 |
Matt Hasselbeck |
Seahawks |
How will the loss
of OG Steve Hutchinson and WR Joe Jurevicius affect Hasselbeck’s
numbers? Signing Nate Burleson should
help the WR situation, but can he account for the 10 TD passes that JJ caught
last season? If he can’t, a
healthy Darrell Jackson should help fill the void. |
|
11 |
Trent Green |
Chiefs |
Green has been extremely
consistent and productive in recent history, and his numbers suggest he
should be ranked higher than tenth on this list. The funny thing about quarterbacks is that
they have to throw the ball to someone, and I’m not ready to
trust a receiver named Craphonso just yet.
Green’s TD totals took a big hit last season, and the lack of a
star receiver has a lot to do with that.
Not much has changed for 2006. |
|
12 |
Kurt Warner |
|
Warner hasn’t
played a full season since 2001 but the upside in |
|
13 |
Aaron Brooks |
Raiders |
2005 was a rough season
for Brooks. His fantasy production
took a nosedive as the Saints endured a horrible season. Now he gets a fresh start in |
|
14 |
Marc Bulger |
Rams |
The Rams have given
up 43, 50, and 46 sacks in the last three seasons – only three teams
were worse over that period. No wonder
Bulger finally gave in to shoulder injuries last season. The addition of OT Todd Steussie from the
Bucs should help, but Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce aren’t getting any
younger. Bulger put up gaudy numbers
in Mike Martz’s offense, but Martz has moved on and Bulger has to prove
he can stay healthy and productive before he’s worth a top 10 pick in
my book. |
|
15 |
Daunte Culpepper |
Dolphins |
Culpepper is
motivated to return and perform well.
He has Chris Chambers, Ronnie Brown, and Randy McMichael to assist
him. Nick Saban is a smart coach who
seems to be doing all the right things to create a winner in |
|
16 |
Jon Kitna |
Lions |
That’s right,
Jon Kitna as the Lions QB is in the top half of the rankings. In the three years he started for the
Bengals (2001-2003), his output steadily increased and his 2003 season put
him in the top 10 of fantasy QB’s.
Now Mike Martz is calling the offense in |
|
17 |
Drew Brees |
Saints |
Brees is a guy that
you almost have to root for. He has
succeeded despite all the odds and despite |
|
18 |
Steve McNair |
Ravens |
McNair has gotten a
reputation for being constantly injured over the last couple of seasons. Ok, so he’s missed 10 games in 2
years – but the good news is that he was still very productive when he
was in the game and he finds himself on a much better team this season. Still, the Ravens are in the tough AFC
North and McNair has a new offense to learn.
|
|
19 |
Mike Vick |
Falcons |
Mike learned how to
stay healthy the last couple of years.
Unfortunately, he didn’t learn how to throw any better and the
Falcons are still missing the stud WR they so desperately need. Maybe the Falcons figure Mike can overthrow
average receivers as well as he can overthrow star receivers. Vick is the opposite of Jake Plummer,
because the maddening inconsistency from Vick is much more evident in fantasy
football than in the NFL. As a result,
he’s not worth an early fantasy pick. |
|
20 |
David Carr |
Texans |
Half of the 14 TD
passes that Carr threw in 2005 were to Corey Bradford (5) and Jabar Gaffney
(2). Neither receiver remains with the
Texans today, meaning newcomer Eric Moulds has to be a solid #1 receiver for |
|
21 |
Brad Johnson |
Vikings |
Brad Johnson is the
definition of solid. He doesn’t
make dumb mistakes but he isn’t flashy or spectacular either. He just provides a steady, consistent level
of slightly above average production.
In addition, Mike McMahon, J.T. O’Sullivan, and rookie Tarvaris
Jackson back him up so that starter’s job looks pretty secure. He would make an ideal backup fantasy QB. |
|
22 |
Chris Simms |
Bucs |
Simms completed
over 60% of his passes last season and threw more TD’s than
INT’s. There is every reason to
believe that he could take another major step forward this season and post
some impressive numbers. Or, he could
start slow and prompt Jon Gruden to bench him in favor of veteran Jay Fiedler. I think it’s more likely that he will
succeed, and if so he’ll be promoted for next year’s preseason
rankings. For now he’s relegated
to fantasy backup status. |
|
23 |
Byron Leftwich |
Jaguars |
The Jaguars signed a
couple of receivers in the offseason and drafted TE Mercedes Lewis in the
first round and RB Maurice Drew in the 2nd. Yawn.
Leftwich has a lot to prove before he could be called a fantasy
starter. Losing top WR Jimmy Smith to
retirement won’t help either. |
|
24 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
Steelers |
The Steelers did a
nice job of drafting receivers to replace the departed Randle El. Roethlisberger is accurate and
consistent. If he can just throw for
another 100 yards and half a touchdown per game, he’ll be Tom
Brady. Until then he’s #24. |
|
25 |
Marc Brunell |
Redskins |
Brunell will get
hurt and miss time this season – it’s as sure as the sun rising
in the east. Also remember that the Skins
have a conservative coach and a dominant defense. Joe Gibbs has no problem with winning ugly
low-scoring games. Remember last
year’s playoff game against |
|
26 |
Billy Volek |
Titans |
Like Jon Kitna,
Billy Volek has performed well when given the chance. Unlike Jon Kitna, Billy Volek has limited
offensive talent around him and 3rd overall pick Vince Young
waiting in the wings. If you were an
owner in love with Vince Young and you had committed a sizeable chunk of your
cap space to his signing bonus, wouldn’t you want him to play if the
season looked like a loss anyway?
Unless Volek pulls a Drew Brees, he’ll be riding pine by
midseason. |
|
27 |
Rex Grossman |
Bears |
If ifs and buts
were candy and nuts, oh what a party we’d have. Grossman has talent and a secure job to go
with a wide variety of injuries. Could
he put it all together this year? Even
if he does, |
|
28 |
Philip Rivers |
Chargers |
Rivers is a
complete question mark. Most
QB’s struggle mightily in their first season as a starter. Draft him only in the deepest fantasy
leagues, or as a possible keeper.
Otherwise wait to see if he does well enough to be worth a waiver wire
pickup. |
|
29 |
Alex Smith |
49ers |
A young, talented
QB on a team that is rebuilding.
We’ll keep an eye on him for future seasons but for now Smith is
a longshot at best. |
|
30 |
Charlie Frye |
Browns |
Refer to Alex
Smith, above. |
|
31 |
|
Jets |
Let’s hope
Pennington returns to form and helps the Jets climb out of the AFC East
cellar. By 2008. |
|
32 |
Kelly Holcomb |
Bills |
Holcomb is still
competing with J.P. Losman for the right to quarterback the woeful
Bills. Avoid him like the plague. |
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Quarterbacks |