2003 OSCAR PREDICTIONS and IF THEY LET US VOTE: The Prestige Awards

BEST PICTURE The Lord of the Rings Lost in Translation Master & Commander Mystic River Seabiscuit PREDICTIONS F&SN Critic and HB&TW: Lord of the Rings F&SN 2nd Pick:  Lost in Translation HB&TW 2nd Pick:  Mystic River IF THEY LET US VOTE F&SN: Lost in Translation 2nd Pick:  Master & Commander HB&TW: Master & Commander 2nd Pick: Lost in Translation BEST DIRECTOR Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Fernando Meirelles, City of God Peter Weir, Master & Commander PREDICTIONS F&SN Critic and HB&TW: Lord of the Rings F&SN 2nd Pick:  Master & Commander HB&TW 2nd Pick: Mystic River

Prestige Awards                 Acting Visuals              Music & Sound

March 1st:  Winners added in yellow

ANIMATED FEATURE Brother Bear Finding Nemo Triplets of Belleville PREDICTIONS F&SN and HB&TW: Finding Nemo (As if the Academy is going to pass over the year’s most popular—or at least 2nd most popular—film for a PG13, limited release, potentially anti-American, practically silent film made by those cowards the French.) IF THEY LET US VOTE: F&SN and HB&TW: Triplets of Belleville DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Prediction:  The Fog of War 2nd Pick:  Capturing the Friedmans ANIMATED SHORT FILM Prediction:  Destino

IF THEY LET US VOTE This really is Sophie’s choice right here (no pun intended, Ms. Coppola!). I admire Peter Jackson’s ambition and technique in tackling the gargantuan “Lord of the Rings” trilogy and had fun watching it.  But it’s a shame he could neither imbue it with more soul and humanity, nor could the films, for all their pomp and arrogance, convey any more depth than platitudes about “never giving up” and “power corrupts.”  That the movies’ uninteresting and unambiguous treatment of absolute good vs. absolute evil is being hailed as “the finest battle of good vs. evil in the history of English literature” is irritating.  Also, the trilogy’s supposed eco-friendly themes are effortlessly overwhelmed by the production’s sheer size and its subsequent glorification of human technology.  Jackson’s recklessly irresponsible treatment of “war-as-video game” would be excusable if it were adolescent escapism, but it’s harder to tolerate when that adolescent escapism is trying to pass itself off as something grander.  If I were a cynic, I would bemoan his transformation of the far-off world of Middle-Earth into just another place where the music is loud, violence solves everything, and things blow up real good.  If I were a cynic, I would say that “LOTR,” like “Gladiator,” is the latest in a string of shallow entertainments that satiate our desire for believing we are thinking and being challenged, when in fact we are not.  But I’m not a cynic. Despite the relative smallness of their films, both Clint Eastwood and Sofia Coppola succeed where Jackson fails in creating interesting personal stories populated by complex, ambivalent characters whose moral failures and successes teach us how to be better human beings.  Coppola’s film may be the year’s best, and Eastwood’s runs close behind—so many other years and they would get my vote—but my favor must ultimately go to Peter Weir and Fernando Meirelles for combining Jackson’s grandeur with the intimacy of Eastwood and Coppola.  Both “City of God” and “Master & Commander” are exhilarating films that place big-budget special effects and casts at the disposal of fascinating characters in insoluble dilemmas.  This is where movies are perhaps their most moving:  when both the big and the small—the grand and the intimate—are successful. F&SN and HB&TW: Peter Weir, Master & Commander 2nd Pick: Fernando Meirelles, City of God

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY American Splendor City of God Lord of the Rings Mystic River Seabiscuit PREDICTIONS F&SN and HB&TW: Mystic River F&SN 2nd Pick: Lord of the Rings HB&TW 2nd Pick: Seabiscuit IF THEY LET US VOTE Again, 4 great nominations, and “Lord of the Rings.”  I have to go with size, scope, and complexity; my picks are “City of God” and “Mystic River,” which were both bursting with rich, complex characters and plot twists.  My wife favors the clever and the unique, including how the actors walk off-set in “American Splendor” to talk to their real-life counterparts, and the PBS-style parable of the racehorse as the Depression-era American in “Seabiscuit.” F&SN: City of God 2nd Pick: Mystic River HB&TW: American Splendor 2nd Pick: Seabiscuit

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Barbarian Invasions Dirty Pretty Things Finding Nemo In America Lost in Translation PREDICTIONS F&SN and HB&TW: Lost in Translation 2nd Pick: In America IF THEY LET US VOTE F&SN and HB&TW: Lost in Translation