It’s true that I haven’t seen all of the films up for nomination at this year’s Oscars, but with the benefits of a relatively powerful computer and the “KaZaA” media desktop, I’ve been able to download (illegally? – perhaps, but that’s ambiguous) a few of the nominated films that I wouldn’t have been able to see in time otherwise. And so, my predictions are as follows:
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Bolded: I think this film/person will win.
Italicized: I think this film/person should win.
Bolded and Italicized: I think this film/person should win and it/they will win.
Best Picture:
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist
By now we’ve all heard about the Polanski sex/drug scandal that occurred in the 1970s and the fugitive status that has since been hovering over him for fleeing the country in the midst of it. Nonetheless, the Academy did have the chutzpah to overlook this and nominate his film, The Pianist. However, I don’t see them going the whole way and awarding his film the best picture Oscar that I personally think it deserves. Audiences have fallen in love with Chicago more than any other film, mainly due to the authentic Broadway vigor that permeates throughout it, and that’s why it’ll win for Best Picture.
Actor:
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Only one of these actors, Adrien Brody, has yet to win a Best Actor Oscar already. Nicholas Cage and Daniel Day-Lewis have each won once, whereas Michael Caine and Jack Nicholson have won this award on numerous occasions. Brody’s performance was just about as subtle as one could get, which won me over. However, Day-Lewis, despite his apparent dislike for acting, will likely get the nod here.
Actress:
Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Renee Zellweger, Chicago
It’s quite an achievement when an actor delves into a role so much that she becomes practically unrecognizable, which is what Kidman did with this role. She simply deserves this win.
Supporting actor:
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
Chris Cooper pulled off the most entertaining performance of the year in Adaptation, but Paul Newman is far too distinguished and, frankly, far too old for the Academy not to award (perhaps one last time.)
Supporting actress:
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Catherine Zeta-Jones has been far too hot for far too long now for the Academy to overlook anymore. She energized Chicago into a much more fun film than probably any actor could have, and that’s why she’ll get the nod here.
Director:
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
Rob Marshall established himself as a major film director in style this year with his extravagant direction of Chicago; Stephen Daldry has been making Britain proud ever since his years in theatre direction there, and Pedro Almodovar is probably the most popular foreign film director in the United States today. Roman Polanski directed the most powerful film of the year (and possibly of his career,) but, as aforementioned, that doesn’t mean he’ll get the win. Martin Scorsese has been like an evasive star to the Academy, always shining brightly but never quite recognized – until now. If any prediction is a sure bet this year, it’s Martin Scorsese for Best Director.
Adapted screenplay:
Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz and Paul Weitz, About a Boy
Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
Bill Condon, Chicago
David Hare, The Hours
Ronald Harwood, The Pianist
I (surprisingly) enjoyed About a Boy, but the Weitzs simply aren’t going to be able to overshadow Charlie Kaufman, who has become famous not only amongst Hollywood types, but of the public in general, which is a very unusual achievement for a screenwriter these days. He wrote one of the most imaginative screenplays of all time with Being John Malkovich, and Adaptation was no less intriguing.
Original screenplay:
Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
Carlos Cuaron and Alfonso Cuaron, Y Tu Mama Tambien
I’ve been a Todd Haynes fan since seeing one of his first films, Poison, a few years ago. Far From Heaven is a remarkable deviation in subject matter from much of his earlier work, but not a harmful one. He, for already proving himself to be such a versatile young director, should and (hopefully) will take home the golden statuette for Best Original Screenplay.
I’m not able to comment on the foreign film category since I’ve yet to see any of the nominated films. The rest of the categories that I’ve excluded range from Art Direction to Editing, which are invaluable facets of the film industry; however, I’m not overly inspired to write anything about them. All in all, 2002 was an above average year for cinema that saw more good than bad films come and go, which is certainly something for all involved in the industry to be proud of.
