How about a closer rendezvous 17 years later

How about a closer rendezvous 17 years later ?

A safe pass this time,

How about a closer rendezvous 17 years later ?

Asteroid 200NY40 closed in toward the Earth and departed about one week ago, on Aug.

18, 2002.

It reminded me, perhaps many others also, of Asteroid 2002NT7, a newly found asteroid,

which was reported by BBC about one month ago on July 24 as possible—-if its course is

to be as that calculated nowadays—-to collide into the Earth seventeen years later, in 2019.

Astronomers have said to the public (the world’s public in fact) that the possibility of a

collision between Asteroid 2002NT7 and the Earth is “remote” (not “small”, “little”, or

“negligible”), adding that what this world can do (now) is vigilance.

Vigilance surely is necessary.

But perhaps not enough.

Or even fatally not enough at all.

It's for sure I was not the only person, nor one of very few people, but merely one of

thousands or much more people who must have got, on the evening of Aug. 18, 2002,

when Asteroid 2002NY40 came closest near Earth, the reminding of and worry about

the possible collision of an asteroid with the Earth 17 years later.

But I wonder how many people, let alone among those in the fields of international

politics or America's politics, have noticed the possibility that humankind and Mother

Earth might not be able to avoid the destiny of a collision between Earth and Asteroid

2002NT7 if the course of that asteroid will be hitting into the Earth 17 years later:

The humankind society, after some great (nuclear) warfare and the destruction of the

ability to launch missiles into the outer space around the Earth, might not be able to

affect the course of Asteroid 2002NT7 despite of seeing that the course is to make it hit

into the Earth and destroy a whole continent, if not all of the human lives of the world.

A clearly possible scenario, though “remote” or far-fetched as it may seem right now to

the pure-hearted and simple-minded ones of scientists or astronomers, is by no means

negligible to sophisticated observers of international politics, or strategists working for

the defense departments or think tanks of quite a few big or small countries:

If America gets in some near future (or in a few years), as threatened by the terror groups

involved with the Sept. 11, 2001 catastrophe, some new terror attacks so huge in life-loss

and material destruction as that caused by the Sept. 11 terror attacks, or even a nuclear-

explosion attack, the American government, or some senior American government

officials, might become so mad or so super-suspicious as to do some things too much

damaging to this world. Eventually some great enmity, started at first by high-tensioned

distrust and great precaution, might get heated between America and Russia or an alliance

of Russia and (Red) China.

And then, if a nuclear war bursts out—-whether triggered by a nuclear war between

Pakistan and India or a big regional war with Israel at the core, or some big, tragic incident

(as unexpected now as the 911 catastrophe had been before it happened live on the TV

screen) …

Suddenly this world may find out that it has lost the ability to launch missiles or

spaceships into the outer space, and has thus lost all means capable of avoiding the

collision of Asteroid 2002NT7 into the Earth, killing billions of people, if the course of it

is to be one right to hit the Earth in 2019.

What do you think we can do, with peaceful means, to help this world, and us in it, be

sure to be able to avoid the 2019 astronomical collision-if Asteroid 2002NT7 will really

and surely fly into Earth in a collision course?

( W. H. Haisadiam; August 26, 2002 )*

- - - Starting to put forth this message on the internet

from Taiwan at about 11:50 p.m., Pasadena time.

* Contact e-mail: ingoodhope@yahoo.com.tw

Postscripts:

Before putting forth this message, I went to the website of NASA's Near-Earth Object

Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov ), and saw the

leading notice in the front page was an Aug. 1 message saying that all possibilities for an

Earth impact in the next 100 years have been eliminated, including, obviously, the

possibility of Asteroid 2002NT7 to hit into the Earth in 2019.

Wow, it's nice!

False alarm. Everything's going to be O.K. now.

But, a second thought rose in my mind in a few minutes.

How about suddenly there's another something big in the space newly found to be

coming toward our planet in a collision course? The worry depicted in the message

above of "How about a closer redezvous ..." needs to be watched out none the less.

Is there going to be something like a Earth Protection Command set up by the United

Nations that will be preserved even if a big nuclear war is to burst out sometime in the

future and destroy all the big, powerful countries' abilities to launch missiles and

spaceships into the outer space for breaking up or turning away an Earth-hitting asteroid

or big meteor?

Politicians and military experts, plus smart or sophisticated novelists also, will be quick

to say—-and this time they will be honest and right:

"What if that Earth Protection Command becomes something monstrous or mutant, and

then it either takes hold of the whole world into a tyranny, or causes a big nuclear war

and has, in a completely out-of-control or out-of-planning way, all of the world's

capabilities to launch missiles into the outer space destroyed?"

We human beings had better put more emphasize on how to prevent and dissolve wars

between big powers and how to dissolve or reduce great terror attacks, especially those

involving mass destruction means as nuclear weapons or bio-chemical attacks.

And pray to God to forgive the sins of humankind, and help us, save us from

destruction.

(W. H. Haisadiam; August 26, 2002 ) 9:58 p.m., Pasadena time.

[ The message above was put forth in late Aug., 2002 in “Beginner’s Corner” of the

“Astronomy Discussion Page” at http://www.astronomyforum.net/forum.html ]

[ Related information about Asteroid 2003NT7, the formerly reported as

to-be-earth-hitting asteroid: ]

About Asteroid 2002NT7 (web information taken on 020730):

[1] News & Updates: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news.html

NEAR EARTH OBJECT NEWS

News & Updates About Near-Earth Objects Is

Also Available From Our Mailing List

Caveat Impactor (NASA Science News - July 26, 2002)

Asteroid 2002 NT7: Low-Probability of Earth Impact in 2019 (Jet Propulsion

Laboratory - July 24, 2002)

Asteroid May Hit Earth In 2019 But Don't Panic Yet

(Associated Press - July 24, 2002)

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[2] http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news132.html :

Asteroid 2002 NT7: Low-Probability of Earth Impact in 2019 (Jet Propulsion

Laboratory - July 24, 2002)

[3] http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/07/24/asteroid.encounter.ap/index.html :

Asteroid May Hit Earth In 2019 But Don't Panic Yet

(Associated Press - July 24, 2002)

Asteroid may hit Earth but don't panic yet

July 25, 2002 Posted: 3:35 AM EDT (0735 GMT)

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LONDON (AP) -- Astronomers are carefully monitoring a newly discovered

1.2-mile-wide (2 km) asteroid to see whether it is on a collision course with Earth.

Initial calculations indicate there is a chance the asteroid ?known as 2002 NT7 ?will

hit the Earth on February 1, 2019. But scientists said Wednesday that the calculations

are preliminary and the risk to the planet is low.

"The threat is very minimal," Donald Yeomans, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

in Pasadena, California, told British Broadcasting Corp. radio. "An object of this size

would be expected to hit the Earth every few million years, and as we get additional

data I think this threat will go away."

The object was detected on July 9 by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Project

in New Mexico. It orbits the sun every 837 days, and NASA scientists predict its path

could intersect with the Earth's orbit. But they say more observations over the coming

months will help them plot its course more accurately.

CNN NewsPass VIDEO

Astronomers are carefully monitoring a newly discovered 1.2-mile-wide asteroid to see

whether it is on a collision course with Earth. CNN's George Bryant reports (July 25)

Play video

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[4] Front page: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/orbits/

This Page

Last Updated

Jul 30, 2002

[5] http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2002+NT7

Asteroid 2002 NT7

Note: Make sure you have Java enabled on your browser to see the applet. This applet is

provided as a 3D orbit visualization tool. The applet was implemented using only 2-body

methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over

several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances. See the "High-Accuracy

Ephemeris" link in middle of the page to do this.

[6] Impact Risks: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Home | Welcome | Near Earth Objects | News & Updates | Number of NEOs

Orbit Diagrams | Orbit Elements | Close Approaches | Impact Risks

The following table lists potential future Earth impact events that the JPL Sentry System

has detected based on currently available observations. Click on the object designation to

go to a page with full details on that object.

Sentry is a highly automated collision monitoring system that continually scans the most

current asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100 years.

Whenever a potential impact is detected it will be analyzed and the results immediately

published here, except in unusual cases where an IAU Technical Review is underway. For

more information on impact monitoring and risk assessment see our Impact Risk Introduction

and Frequently Asked Impact Risk Questions.

It is normal that, as additional observations become available, objects will disappear from

this table whenever there are no longer any potential impact detections. For this reason

we maintain a list of removed objects with the date of removal.

[7] Welcome: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/welcome.html

This Page

Last Updated

Feb 22, 2002

Welcome to the web page of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion

Laboratory. This Program Office was established in mid-1998 to help coordinate, and provide

a focal point for, the study of those comets and asteroids that can approach the Earth's orbit.

The Earth's mean orbital distance from the sun is defined as an astronomical unit (1 AU) or

approximately 93 million miles. Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are generally defined as those

objects whose close approaches to the sun are 1.3 AU or less. As a result, Near-Earth Objects

are those comets and asteroids that can come within about 28 million miles of the Earth's orbit.

Don Yeomans

January 1, 1999

THE NEAR EARTH OBJECT PROGRAM

Establishment Of The NEO Program Office

NEO Program Responsibilities

NEO Program Personnel

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Home | Questions/Comments | Mailing List | Credits

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Jet Propulsion Laboratory

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