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12 March 2002
New Zealand enter the three Tests series against England after having held off Australia for three Tests for three consecutive draws in late 2001.  Admittedly, they received a large amount of help from the weather in two of these. 

Following that series, the New Zealanders managed to keep Australia out of their own tri-series finals before going on to welcomed England by defeating them in another one day series.

Overall, New Zealand's Test team has been climbing through the ratings since January 1999.  Over this two-year period, New Zealand has increased their rating by 55 ratings-points.  New Zealand holds its highest rating (1022 points) since August 1990.

New Zealand is a well-balanced outfit while Cairns is fit and in the side.  Cairns adds to New Zealand what Gilchrist adds to Australia - stability and composed run scoring before the tail comes in to bat.

Over the last two years, New Zealand has played above the level their rating would suggest whenever Cairns is fit.  Thus, their rating has been trending upwards over this time.  However, whenever Cairns has not been available, the Kiwis lose rating points.

With Cairns fit for the series against England, their form would suggest they will play better than the narrow series loss that is expected by the ratings system. 

New Zealand starts this series in seventh position.  They can increase their rating if they at least draw the series.  A series victory would raise New Zealand into sixth place while an unlikely series whitewash would lift them above England into fifth place. New Zealand can only fall back into eighth place if they lose every Test.

Overall, New Zealand has played eighty Tests against England since their first encounter in 1930.  During this time, New Zealand has won six, lost 35 and drawn the remaining 39 Tests.  In the twelve series held in New Zealand, there have been a total of 38 Tests played with the home side winning two, losing 15 and having drawn 21 others.

History would suggest England should win this series.  However, in their last meeting, in England in 1999, New Zealand won the series 2-1 with one draw.  Notably, Cairns was fit during that series and it occurred near the beginning of their ratings climb.

England has not had a similarly impressive lead up to their series in New Zealand.  After winning four series in a row in 2000 and early 2001 their rating climbed and they moved from sixth to third place in the rankings.  Thereafter, England drew at home to Pakistan and then lost to Australia in August and India in December.  Upon arriving in New Zealand, they lost the one-day series.

England is currently ranked equal fourth with Sri Lanka.  England must win the series to again improve their rating and claim fourth place in their own right.  A series whitewash would see England move to just three ratings points of third placed Pakistan.  England will drop into fifth place if they only draw the series.  However, England will drop to seventh place if they end the series with nothing more than one draw from the three Tests.

England may struggle to play up to their recent standard given that they are without Atherton (retired), Stewart (not available) and Gough (injured).  Having lost a quarter of their regular players in the last six months, England are unlikely to finish the series with an increase in their rating.

Latest Ratings:  1. Australia (1213); 2. South Africa (1136); 3. Pakistan (1073); 4. England (1049); 4. Sri Lanka (1049); 6. India (1039); 7. New Zealand (1022); 8. West Indies (1006); 9. Zimbabwe (911); 10. Bangladesh (838).
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Last Updated: 12 March 2002