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21 June 2002
Both West Indies and New Zealand enter this two Test series locked in equal seventh position on 1017 ratings points.  The series should therefore be a tightly contested one.  However, history and an injured Chris Cairns is likely to see the West Indies triumph.

West Indies record over recent years has been to win at home and fail dismally whilst on tour.  Since 1973, the West Indians have only lost at home to Australia in 1995 and South Africa in 2001.  The trend continued during the recent series against India last month where the home side came back from losing the second Test to win five Test series 2-1.

Considering both nations have been playing Test cricket for over 70 years, it is remarkable that this series will be only the fourth time New Zealand has toured the Caribbean Islands for a Test series.  Their first tour was in 1972.

The West Indians have a proud record at home against New Zealand.  They have never conceded one Test to the Kiwis in the eleven Tests that have been played.  However, there have been eight draws.

Overall, the two teams have played thirty times with the West Indies having won ten, lost six and drawn fourteen.

After dominating Test cricket during the 1980s and early 1990s, the West Indies rating has been in decline since 1993.  The period since that time has been characterised by a continual loss of ratings points while on tour.  The decline has only partly been offset by increases while playing at home. 

Overall, the West Indies has lost 175 points and plunged from first to as low as eighth.  Before their decline, the West Indies had never been ranked lower than fifth.

The West Indies bottomed out on 1006 points after losing to Pakistan earlier this year.  That was their sixth worst rating in history and their lowest rating since 1948.

The defeat of India in May 2002 brought them level with New Zealand.  The Kiwis rating has been trending upwards over the last four years.  While they remain in the lower half of Test nations, they have improved to the point that a couple of good series results could lift them into the top half of the field.

New Zealand would appear to be in the middle of a successful era similar to what they experienced when Sir Richard Hadlee was playing in the late 1980s.  During that period, they set their highest rating in history of 1047 points. 

Only time will tell of this New Zealand side can better that record.  If they can achieve a new record rating then they will move into fifth place in the ratings.  New Zealand has not been rated fifth since mid 1990 and the highest they have ever been ranked is third in 1986.

A series whitewash will see the winner leap past India and claim sixth place, while the loser would be relegated to eighth place.  A draw would see them remain locked in seventh position.  Any other result would see the winner in outright seventh place and the loser in eighth place.

While the ratings system predicts a drawn series, New Zealand is likely to struggle against West Indies.  This is not so much do with their record of no wins while in the Caribbean.  The reason is the absence of Chris Cairns.

Cairns can win a test with either bat or ball.  He is an explosive batsman in the lower middle order and gives New Zealand an edge similar to the edge Australia has with Gilchrist.  Further, Cairns is probably New Zealand's best bowler since Hadlee.

New Zealand is a very strongly bonded unit.  Their skill as a team is certainly better than the sum of their parts.  They will need all of their team skills to overcome the West Indies while Cairns is unavailable.

The latest Test cricket ratings are: 1. Australia (1216); 2. South Africa (1133); 3. Pakistan (1079); 4. England (1062); 5. Sri Lanka (1034); 6. India (1029); 7. New Zealand (1017); 7. West Indies (1017); 9. Zimbabwe (911); 10. Bangladesh (838).
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Last Updated: 21 June 2002