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India starts the series in fifth place in the ratings and must win the series to gain ratings points. India can draw level with fourth placed England if they win both Tests in their series in New Zealand. If India lose both Tests then New Zealand will overtake both Sri Lanka and India, with India dropping to sixth place. However, India will not drop below Sri Lanka regardless of the result because of India's 15 rating point lead over Sri Lanka.
New Zealand begins the series in seventh place and can start to gain ratings points if they at least draw the series against India. As noted, a series whitewash would propel New Zealand into fifth position (and possibly eventually into fourth if England continue to lose in Australia). Provided New Zealand wins the series, then they will definitely overtake Sri Lanka and claim sixth place in the ratings. Regardless of the result, New Zealand will not drop below West Indies into eighth place.
New Zealand has played India in 40 Tests since their first meeting in November 1955. New Zealand has won 7 Tests, lost 14 and drawn 19 of those matches. In New Zealand, however, they have met 16 times over five Test series and New Zealand holds the upper hand. New Zealand was won five Tests, lost four and drawn seven giving them three series victories, one loss and a draw. India's last series win in New Zealand was in 1967-68.
Both nations have been quiet improvers for most of the last four years. New Zealand has improved their rating by 63 points since late 1998 while India, after an initial drop until mid 2000, has increased their own rating by 37 points over the last two years.
The difference has been India's continuing inability to win a Test series on tour. Apart from their one-off Test in Bangladesh in November 2000, India has not won a Test series away from home since their tour of Sri Lanka in 1993.
If India can learn to win away from the sub-continent then they could easily draw close to third place Pakistan. India is blessed with a talented batting line up, however, their batsmen often struggle on bouncy pitches. Fortunately, New Zealand is not known for the sort of pitches found on what they often refer to as their 'Western Islands' (Australia).
India's bowling attack is a different matter entirely. Anil Kumble, India's foremost bowler, is not available for the tour and more responsibility will fall on Harbhajan Singh as India's key spin weapon. However, it is likely that India's largest weakness will be their lack of genuine pace bowlers to open the innings.
The series is likely to be closely contested. India's inability to win in foreign lands is partly offset by the absence of Chris Cairns, New Zealand match winning all rounder. India?s higher ranking is offset by New Zealand's ability to play as a team at a greater level than merely a sum of its parts.
The latest Test cricket ratings are: 1. Australia (1230); 2. South Africa (1149); 3. Pakistan (1074); 4. England (1059); 5. India (1045); 6. Sri Lanka (1030); 7. New Zealand (1025); 8. West Indies (996); 9. Zimbabwe (902); 10. Bangladesh (826).
