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English cricket has been in a lingering slumber since the mid 1980s. Until they defeated West Indies in their home season last year, England was consistently sixth in the Test Cricket Rating Service (TCRS) rankings. Over this 16 years period England has held an average rating of 1012 points.
During their 2000 home season England suddenly woke up. After recording series wins against Zimbabwe and West Indies at home and they continued to the subcontinent and defeated Pakistan and Sri Lanka. All of a sudden, England holds third place in the ratings and has increased their rating to 1058 points.
England has not held a rating this high since before the Blackwash occurred in the Caribbean in 1986. England toured Australia later that year and retained the Ashes they had won while hosting Australia in 1985. However, at that time Australia was at its lowest ratings ebb since 1896, fully 89 years previously.
The sudden reawakening of English cricket had an instant impact on English supporters. The sudden signs of life from their national team saw the complete sell out of the entire Ashes series for the following summer. For the first time in 12 years, there seemed to be a chance England could win an Ashes series.
Given most kids don't take much notice of cricket until they are at least eight years old, there are numerous twenty-somethings wondering around who take the Australian domination of the Ashes as a given. After all, they simply don't remember England holding the Ashes.
So what hope has the England team got to recover the Ashes? To use an Australian term: "Bugger all".
The TCRS ratings are a direct reflection of each nation's strength relative to each over. While most nations have lost ratings points, both England and Australia have been the star performers in the ratings. Each has significantly increased their rating over the last year - they have in effect become stronger compared to the rest.
Over the last 18 months England has increased their rating by 46 points. Over the same period Australia increased their rating by up to 86 points before falling back after their loss in India to a 67 point increase.
As noted above, England won the Ashes in 1986 when their rating was similar to their current rating. However, at that time Australia held their 20th worst ever rating of 1018 points. Going into this Ashes series Australia holds their ninth best ever rating of 1085 points.
England's current rating of 1048 leaves them 137 ratings points behind Australia. This is the third highest difference between the two nations going into an Ashes contest. The two higher margins occurred during the 1950s.
While England has certainly improved over recent times, they still remain a long way behind Australia. The TCRS system predicts that Australia will win the series by around 3.5 to 1.5 with draws and ties counting as half points.
This would see Australia finish this series with a firm hand on the Ashes for an unprecedented seventh consecutive series.
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Read other Ashes related articles at: The Ashes 2001
Other Articles by the Test Cricket Ratings Service
