The Australian, November 04, 2005
JI refining its tactics: report
THE absence of progress in investigating the latest Bali bombings show the bombers
have learned from experience how to better cover their tracks, an American strategic
thinktank believes.
In an analysis of the October 1 bombings on Bali which killed 27 including four
Australians and the three suicide bombers, private sector intelligence group Stratfor,
said terror group Jemaah Islamiah (JI) was demonstrating better operational security,
planning and training.
"This confirms that JI is adapting and refining its tactics, techniques and procedures
faster than Indonesian counterterrorism authorities can adapt," it said.
"Because of this, further attacks in Indonesia are likely against soft, Western targets
such as tourists."
Stratfor said more than a month had passed since the triple suicide bombings and
there had been little progress in the Australian-Indonesian investigation - although
investigators were certain they knew who were the masterminds.
Soon after the bombings, it was widely claimed that senior JI operatives Noordin Top
and Azahari Husin, both Malaysians, planned the attack, along with another JI figure
known only as Dulmatin. They are also believed responsible for the 2002 Bali attack
which killed 202 including 88 Australians.
The post-2002 investigation proceeded swiftly with vehicle identification number
recovered from the chassis of the minivan used in the suicide attack allowing a
speedy roundup of suspects. Three have been sentenced to death.
"This time, leads and arrests are few and far between," Stratfor said.
"Indonesian investigators ... appear to be on a massive fishing expedition, having
questioned more than 600 people across Java and other islands in the archipelago but
turning up no substantial leads.
"The lack of progress in the investigation can be attributed to better techniques used
by the attackers to cover their tracks."
Stratfor said this attack revealed an obvious shift in JI tactics - probably as a result of
lessons learned since the 2002 attack and from experience in attacks in Jakarta
against the JW Marriott Hotel in 2003 and the Australian Embassy in 2004.
"In essence, the latest Bali bombing displayed better JI planning, training and greater
operational security," it said.
"Investigators also are hampered by an apparent lack of forensic evidence from the
devices used in the attacks, possibly because they were simple, well-constructed
bombs that disintegrated on contact.
"Smaller devices like those used in the most recent attack leave fewer residues than
the large vehicle-borne bombs that JI has employed in the past."
© The Australian
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