 |
 |
PA Workshop Report
Will the degree of soccer gambling increase greatly in HK after legalization?
|
I.
Background
|
|
II.
Objective
|
|
III.
Research question
|
|
IV.
Literature Review and Conceptualization
|
|
V.
Operationalization
|
|
VI.
Our approaches
|
|
VII.
Research methods
|
|
VIII.
Limitation of study
|
|
IX.
Results and analysis of questionnaire
|
|
X.
Prediction
|
|
XI.
Conclusion
|
|
XII.
Working scheme
|
|
XIII.
Reference
|
I. Background:
In these 2-3 years, the number of reports of illegal football gambling has been increasing rapidly. Both the government and the society have shown their concern on this issue.
This year, the government asked for public opinion on the possibility to legalize football gambling. This has evoked the public's discussion, that some people are expecting a considerable gamble tax and the income from the sale of licenses to private firms, thinking that they will be helpful to our economics depression; and the others believe that the legalization policy will change sport into gambling, juveniles will be then encouraged to try betting and finally the society will deteriorate.
As at today, the government has not made the finally decision.
II. Objectives:
This research work finds out whether the number of people gambles will rise in consequence. And this is in fact the main focus of the discussion of the public.
Instead of only doing surveys like some political parties and pressure groups have, a more theoretical method is used, where theories of human behaviors on gambling will be derived from different countries' experience. And then they will be used to find out Hong Kong’s change. In other words, the research aims to predict by theories rather than to forecast by surveys' results.
It is hoped that the findings of this research will become one of the reference of the government in the decision making of the legalization policy.
III. Research question:
1) Older people will gamble less. The age of people is negative correlated with degree of increase of gambling after legalization.
2) The middle class will gamble more. The nearness of middle class economic power is positive correlated with degree of increase of gambling after legalization.
3) Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization. If there are more illegal gambling activities, the increase of gambling after legalization is great
IV. Literature Review and Conceptualization
First of all, we need to conceptualize what is Gambling. Gambling is playing games for money, which takes great risks for the chance for money or making a profit. The games include two characteristics: rule and skill. Rule is the form of play and the standard the player should follow. Skill can lead the player to influence the outcome of the game in some degree. Therefore, some activities (Share, stock etc.) similar the gambling is not a kind of gambling.
Before constructing our own gambling theory, we try to explore some gambling theory and journal in the previous scholar. Also we try to conclude whether these kinds of theory can fully apply to our Hong Kong environment.
The first one is called culture theory, which is introduced by Haig in the 1985. (This theory is capturing from Edmund Bergler. The psychology of gambling, in 1985. International Universities Press.inc.) He says that the external environments have a great influence to affect the human behaviors. If the societies give positive attitudes to gambling, it will increase the gambler. Therefore, he point out that the introduction and legalization of new forms of gambling, the amount of gambling will increase.
The second one is the relationship between income and the gambling, which is presented by Jacob in the 1986. (This theory is capturing from Edmund Bergler. The psychology of gambling, in 1985. International Universities Press.inc.) He point out that the ages of people are higher, they are not willing to gamble. It is because the elder people are more conservative; therefore they are less willing to bear the risk to gamble.
The third one is that the relationship between the income and the gambling, which is presented by Rosecrance in the 1986. ( This journal is capturing from Michael B.Walker. The psychology of gambling, in 1998. Butterworth Heinemann Press ) He point out that the
Middle classes are more willing to gamble because they have more money to gamble compared with the poor.
However, The rich people are not willing to gamble because they are more likely to involve in buying and selling stocks and shares.
After this observation, we need to ask ourselves, is this theory can fully apply in our Hong Kong environment? We think that it may not fully apply in our Hong Kong environment.
V. Operationaliztion
When we constructing theory, we use three variables’ influence on the gambling to predict the correlation with the gambling. The three variables is age, income and the times of illegal gambling before legalization. Now we need to operationalizate these three variables so that we can use this indicator to measure the concepts we are interested in.
The first variable is age. The longer they live, the older they are.
The second variable is income. We will choose personal monthly income. In Hong Kong, the average monthly income is $10000. (According to the census and statistics department in 2000) So we set people who have $7000-13999 income per month as middle class, and people who have $14000-20999 as near middle class. And people who have lower $7000 are poor and who have $21000 or more are rich. These two groups are set as non-middle class.
The third variable is the times of illegal gambling before legalization in weekly
. The more times to gamble, the more serious of the gambler.
VI. Our approaches
According to our literature review, we find that the increase of (legal and illegal) gambling activities may not be great after the legalization of gambling. The degree of increase of gambling activities depends on other variables. We find that age of people, the economic situation of people and the situation of illegal gambling activities before legalization. The age of people is negative correlated with degree of increase of gambling after legalization. Older people will gamble less. The nearness of middle class economic power is positive correlated with degree of increase of gambling after legalization. The middle class will gamble more. Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization. If there are more illegal gambling activities, the increase of gambling after legalization is great.
Based on this finding, we draw two approaches:
1) The relationship between illegal gambling activities before legalization and age of people, and degree of increase of gambling after legalization
If there are less illegal gambling activities before legalization and lower age of people, increase of gambling activities after legalization is great. If there are more illegal gambling activities before legalization and higher age of people, increase of gambling activities after legalization is great.
2) The relationship between degree of increase of gambling after legalization, and nearness of middle class economic power and illegal gambling activities before legalization
If there are less illegal gambling activities before legalization and people is more near middle class economic power, increase of gambling activities after legalization is great. If there are more illegal gambling activities before legalization and people is less near middle economic power, increase of gambling activities after legalization is great.
VII. Research Methods
Telephone Survey in Hong Kong
Firstly, we will have conducted 25 copies of pre-questionnaire before the implementation of the survey. It aimed to test the result of the content of the questionnaire and modify it. In the survey, 100 citizens who live in Hong Kong have been interviewed by telephone. Then, the old one, the young one, the poor one, the middle one and the rich one have equal opportunity to be selected in the survey.
600 telephone numbers which are a survey sample would be accessed from the following methods. That is, a Hong Kong telephone number is composed by 8 digits numbers. Then, the first digit number is 2. It is a fixed number. Then, the following 2 digit numbers are district code numbers. We have selected 12 from the telephone directory by simple random. And, we have created 50 different forms of the following 5 digits numbers from the digit 0 to the digit 9 by simple random. However, some telephone numbers are not valid. For example, some doesn’t exist; some are for business use or other purposes. So, these numbers are excluded in our survey. We only focused on the family home numbers and we dialed up 600 telephone numbers until we completed 100 interviews successfully.
In telephone survey, respondents will be more honest in giving socially disapproved answers if they don’t have to look interviewers in the eye and may be possible to probe into more sensitive areas. For example, the intentions to support the illegal soccer.
Our six PA Workshop members will act as interviewers ourselves at that time. The element is people. The population is the Hong Kong people. We have interviewed 100 respondents within three days during January 2002. We took place at nights from 17:00 to 20:00 p.m. at the City University of Hong Kong to conduct telephone surveys together. It is because in this period most people would likely stay at home and have more time to engage telephone interviews.
When it comes to the content of the questionnaires, it is mainly focused on the relationships among the illegal gambling before soccer legalization, age, wealth and degree of increase of gambling after legalization (Please refer to appendix).
VIII. Limitations of study
In the workshop proposal, we use the telephone survey to finish our questionnaire and to prove our theories whether they are true or not and we use the telephone survey because we consider that Hong Kong as an advance society, most people should have at least one telephone and thus the most convenience way to construct our sampling frame is from telephone directory. And there are some small portion of people who do not have a phone, thus we will miss these elements when telephone directory is used. And also, some telephone numbers may not be listed in the directory, so we use the random-digit dialing sampling procedures to solve it.
Besides, more problems of telephones survey are that some households or people have more than one telephone number and some numbers are not household has, including business number. So, to solve them, when we asked some business numbers that we are not account them and we just to account the people’s answer who have just one telephone number after we asked them.
And we want to sample 100 households and fulfill the 100 households in our sampling rate of the number we selected, we draw 700 number to ask firstly. But, after we ask the total number we selected, we also cannot fulfill the 100 households, because some people are not willing reply our questions and some selected number have not response, so we draw more 200 numbers later to fulfill it, and finally we get 100 households and finish the questionnaire.
IX. Result and Analysis of the questionnaire
After three days survey, we have interviewed 100 persons, this is the results and analysis:
1. The personal information of the recipients of the survey
I. Gender of the recipients
In our survey, we interviewed 71 male and 29 Female. Most recipients are male.
II. Age of the recipients
We interviewed:
41 persons who age within 15-29,
43 persons who age within 30-44,
9 persons who age within 45-59,
7 persons who age 60 or above
Over 80 % recipients are between 15 and 44.
III. Education level of the recipients
10 recipients graduated at primary school or below level,
55 recipients graduated at secondary school level,
17 recipients graduated at Form 7 level,
18 recipients graduated at university or above level.
Most recipients received secondary or higher education.
IV. Average monthly income
There are 18 recipients whose average monthly income is below HK$7000,
51 recipients whose average monthly income is between HK$7000 and HK$13999,
18 recipients whose average monthly income is between HK$14000 and HK%20999, and
13 recipients whose average monthly income is HK$21000 or above.
Most recipients are middle class.
V. Type of housing
 |
41 recipients live in public housing,
15 recipients live in HOS, and
44 recipients live in private housing.
In short, no. of recipients living in private housing is similar to no. of recipients living in non-private housing (public housing and HOS).
VI. Condition of housing
41 recipients rent housing,
34 recipients have own house but don’t finish payment, and
25 recipients have own house and finish payment.
In short, no. of recipients who have own home no matter finish payment or not, is similar to no. of recipients who have no own house.
VII. Summary
None of classes can monopoly the interview. The distribution of different class is even. It reflects that our sampling is successful.
2. Tests of three theories by our survey result
Our two approaches are made by three theories (1. Older people will gamble less, 2. Middle class will gamble more 3. Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization. If there are more illegal gambling activities, the increase of gambling after legalization is great.). Before testing two approaches, we should test three theories first.
I. Older people will gamble less?
In order to test this theory, we have made 4 empirical statements. If the theory is creditable, all empirical statement will not be rejected in our survey.
1. Less older people than young people have gambling habit
(refer to Q.1 and Q.14)
If our theory “older people will gamble less” is creditable, then less old people have gambling habit than young people. Based on information of question 1 and 14 of questionnaire, we use Lambda test to rest this statement. Q14 and Q 1 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.027. (Please refer to table 1.1.2) It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is 0.235. Besides, it reflects that less old people have gambling habit rather than young people. (Please refer to table 1.1.1) Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 1.1.1
Table 1.1.2
2. Older people will gamble fewer times in week
(refer to Q.2 and Q.14, Table 1.2.1)
If our theory “older people will gamble less” is creditable, then older people will gamble fewer times in week than young people. Based on information of question 2 and 14 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q14 and Q 2 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is –0.538. It shows two variables have negative correlationship. When the age is lower, the gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 1.2.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 1.2.1
Table 1.2.2
3. Older people will gamble illegally fewer times in week
(refer to Q.4 and Q.14, Table 1.3.1)
If our theory “older people will gamble less” is creditable, then older people will gamble illegally fewer times in week than young people. Based on information of question 4 and 14 of questionnaire, we use Gamma Chi-squire test to rest this statement. Q14 and Q 4 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.001. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is –0.467. It shows two variables have negative correlationship. When the age is lower, the illegal gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 1.3.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 1.3.1
Table 1.3.2
4. Older people will gamble soccer illegally fewer times in week
(refer to Q.6 and Q.14, Table 1.4.1)
If our theory “older people will gamble less” is creditable, then older people will gamble soccer illegally fewer times in week than young people. Based on information of question 6 and 14 of questionnaire, we use Gamma Chi-squire test to rest this statement. Q14 and Q 6 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.003. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is –0.441. It shows two variables have negative correlationship. When the age is lower, the illegal soccer gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 1.4.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 1.4.1
Table 1.4.2
5. Summary
After test of 4 empirical statements, all of them are significant. The theoretical statement “ older people gamble less” is more credible because none of empirical statement is rejected. The theory is useful for our research.
II. Middle class will gamble more
In order to test this theory, we have made 4 empirical statements. If the theory is creditable, all empirical statement will not be rejected in our survey.
1. More middle class than rich and poor have gambling habit
(refer to Q.1 and Q.10)
If our theory “middle class will gamble more” is creditable, then more middle class have gambling habit than non-middle class (rich and poor). Based on information of question 1 and 10 of questionnaire, we use Lambda test to rest this statement. Q10 and Q 1 are set as independent and dependent variables. (Please refer to operationalization part) We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.005. (Please refer to table 2.1.2) It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is 0.338. Besides, it reflects that more middle class have gambling habit rather than non-middle class. (Please refer to table 2.1.1 and 2.1.2) Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 2.1.1
Table 2.1.2
2. Middle class will gamble more times in week
(refer to Q.2 and Q.10, Table 2.2.1)
If our theory “middle class will gamble more” is creditable, then, middle class will gamble more times in week than non-middle class. Based on information of question 2 and 10 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q10 and Q 2 are set as independent and dependent variables. (Please refer to operationalization part) We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is 0.544. It shows two variables have positive correlationship. When the people’s income is more near middle class income, the gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 2.2.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 2.2.1
Table 2.2.2
3. Middle class will gamble illegally more times in week
(refer to Q.4 and Q.10, Table 2.3.1)
If our theory “middle class will gamble more” is creditable, then, middle class will gamble illegally more times in week than non-middle class. Based on information of question 4 and 10 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q10 and Q 4 are set as independent and dependent variables. (Please refer to operationalization part) We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is 0.683. It shows two variables have positive correlationship. When the people’s income is more near middle class income, the illegal gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 2.3.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 2.3.1
Table 2.3.2
4. Middle class will gamble soccer illegally more times in week
(refer to Q.6 and Q.10, Table 2.4.1)
If our theory “middle class will gamble more” is creditable, then, middle class will gamble soccer illegally more times in week than non-middle class. Based on information of question 6 and 10 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q10 and Q 6 are set as independent and dependent variables. (Please refer to operationalization part) We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is 0.696. It shows two variables have positive correlationship. When the people’s income is more near middle class income, the illegal soccer gambling times per week will be more. (Refer to table 2.4.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 2.4.1
Table 2.4.2
5. Summary
After test of 4 empirical statements, all of them are significant. The theoretical statement “ middle class gamble more” is more credible because none of empirical statement is rejected. The theory is useful for our research.
III. Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization
In order to test this theory, we have made 2 empirical statements. If the theory is creditable, all empirical statement will not be rejected in our survey.
1. Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great
(Please refer to Q4 and Q9, Table 3.1.1)
If our theory “Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization” is creditable, then, illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great. Based on information of question 4 and 9 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q4 and Q 9 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is -0.616. It shows two variables have negative correlationship. When illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great. (Refer to table 3.1.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 3.1.1
Table 3.1.2
2. Illegal soccer gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great
(Please refer to Q6 and Q9, Table 3.2.1)
If our theory “Illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization” is creditable, then, illegal soccer gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great. Based on information of question 6 and 9 of questionnaire, we use Gamma test to rest this statement. Q6 and Q 9 are set as independent and dependent variables. We use 0.05 level, the probability value is 0.000. It is lower than the sig. level, so the null hypothesis is rejected. 2 variables are correlated. The value is -0.622. It shows two variables have negative correlationship. When soccer illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is more, the increase of soccer gambling after legalization is great. (Refer to table 3.2.2). Therefore, our statement is significant. The theatrical statement is creditable.
Table 3.2.1
Table 3.2.2
3. Summary
After test of 2 empirical statements, all of them are significant. The theoretical statement “illegal gambling activities before legalization of gambling is negative correlated with the degree of increase of gambling after legalization” is more credible because none of empirical statement is rejected. The theory is useful for our research.
IV. Summary
All theories are not rejected and credible. So our 2 approaches that are based on three theories are not rejected and creditable. Two approaches are useful to predict the degree of increase of both legal and illegal soccer times after legalization in HK.
Prediction:
In this part, we will apply the data we found from the survey and document to predict the increasing gambling population after the legalization. Our data mainly measure the variables in our two theories. These variables are the degree of the wealth, the age tendency and the illegal gambling activities in Hong Kong.
In our finding, according to the CIA World Factbook in 1st July 2001, the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product in Hong Kong is ranking to 21 out of 219 nations. It indicates that Hong Kong is not a poor city, but a wealth one in the world. Besides, our survey also found that there are over 51% of our respondents is middle class. It's further evident that Hong Kong typically is a middle class based city.
And according to the 2001 population census, there are 50% of the population that between the age 15-44 and only 32% of the population that between the age 45 or above. So, we can conclude that the Hong Kong young population is more that the old population.
Moreover, the research, done in March by Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, found out that only 6% of the respondents have illegal soccer gambling. And according to our survey, there are 34% respondents have illegal gambling and only 14.7% have illegal gambling 7 times or above. And in these 34% illegal gambling respondents, 91% have illegal soccer gambling and especially, 12.9 % have illegal soccer gambling 7 times or above. In this survey result, we can conclude that there are less illegal gambling activities in Hong Kong. Although many illegal gambling respondents have illegal soccer gambling, the serious illegal soccer gambling only contains 12.9%.
When we put the data in the approach 1, the middle class based city with the less illegal gambling activities at this moment will turn out the great increase of gambling after the legalization. And when we put the data in approach 2, the younger population in Hong Kong with the less illegal gambling activities at this moment will turn out the great increase of gambling activities after the legalization at final. In short, these two theories also indicate that the gambling activities would be great increase after the legalization.
Conclusion:
Ideally, the legalization is another way to increase the government revenue.
But in the recent prediction,
it points out that even if legalization of soccer gambling, the tax revenue
is limited. So, the effectiveness of the government increasing the revenue
through legalization is questioned. However, as a social policy, the legalization
cannot only consider the tax income. The large amount of the gambling activities
may cause many social problems consequently, such as the increase of the problem
gamblers, family dysfunction. Especially, compared with other foreign countries,
the proportion of the problem gamblers in Hong Kong is much higher. To overcome
these social problems, the cost must be given to provide more social welfare.
However, some social problems cannot be solved by social welfare, such as
the wrong value created in the youngster. It may further affect our city development.
In short, in our research, we found that the gambling activities will have
a great increase after the legalization in the case of Hong Kong and it is
the problem that many scholars worry.
XII. Working scheme
|
Issue |
Time |
|
Research design |
9-10/2001 |
|
Survey |
14-16/1/2002 |
|
Analysis and, Prediction on the degree of increase of gambling supposed legalization is passed |
2/2002 |
|
Review |
3/2002 |
XIII. Reference:
1) Gambling takes cash from poor-survey, Businessworld, Manila, Dec 9, 1999
2) It might be best to legalise gambling, The Bankok Post, Apr 6, 2001/10/21
3) Indians Protest Gambling Proposal; Moratorium in Expansion of Casions Would, The Washington Post, Jun 19, 1999
4) Edmund Bergler. The psychology of gambling, in 1985. International Universities Press.inc.
5) Michael B.Walker. The psychology of gambling, in 1998. Butterworth Heinemann Press
6) Commission on Behavioral and social Sciences and Education National Research Council. Pathological Gambling – a critical review. In1999.National Academy Press. Washington, D.C.
7) Young People and Gambling on Football Matches. Youth Poll Series No. 72
8) CIA World Factbook in 1st July 2001
9) http://www.info.gov.hk/censtatd/chinese/hkstat/fas/01c/cd0032001c.htm
10) http://orientaldaily.com.hk/cgi-bin/nsrch.cgi?seq=234882
11) http://www.mingpaonews.com/20020320/__gwb1.htm
12) http://www.mingpaonews.com/20020323/__gaa4.htm
13) http://www.cma.ca/cmaj/vol-164/issue-3/0388.htm
14) Approach one
15) Approach two