by Vu Kim Chung
26-2-2001
Vietnam's powerful Central Committee met in the latter half of February 2001 in an effort to settle a leadership struggle that had preoccupied the Communist party for about one year. Often portrayed as a straightforward contest between hardliners and economic reformers, the leadership issue is actually more complex, involving multiple vested interests. The politics are very feudal and rather contrary to what one would expect of a political system that prides itself as communist and socialist--certainly not a true democracy.
"The politics are so feudal," said Zachary Abuza, a Vietnam specialist at Simmons College in Boston. "Everything is based on personal relationships and patron-client relationships. In Vietnam, there are just a few strong political institutions - the Communist Party and the People's Army - but they are dominated by conniving personalities who care less about the welfare of their country and countrymen than the welfare of their own families. Hence, why Vietnam has become so corruption-ridden."
The plenum, which began on February 20, aimed at bringing to heel personal and factional ambitions that gave rise to policy paralysis amid erratic economic growth, endemic corruption, administrative incompetence, rising unemployment and the risk of social instability. The Central Committee would seek to replace Vietnam's leadership troika of Communist Party secretary-general, president and prime minister with new blood before announcing the changes at the five-yearly party congress scheduled for late March or April.
General Le Kha Phieu, elected party boss as a compromise candidate in 1997 and until recently favoured to remain in the post, embarrassed many of his senior colleagues with un-statesmanlike outbursts of doctrinaire rhetoric. A case in point was the lecture on the virtues of socialism and the evils of US imperialism that he gave visiting president Bill Clinton in November 2000. But General Phieu has also upset a broad spectrum of party members with a bullying and autocratic approach, and by challenging factional and regional balances by pushing for Vietnam's presidency in addition to the top party post.
Odds-on favourite to replace General Phieu was 46-year-old Hanoi party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, who supervised the compilation of a blunt critique of the state of the nation as a guide for discussion ahead of the congress.
The Chairman of the National Assembly, 60-year-old Nong Duc Manh, was tipped to succeed President Tran Duc Luong, whose performance had been deemed lacklustre.
Also expected to step down was Prime Minister Phan Van Khai, whose political future had been the source of speculation for more than a year. Both no-nonsense Interior Minister Le Minh Huong and 51-year-old Deputy Prime Minister and economic innovator Nguyen Tan Dung were referred to as likely replacements.
It remained unclear whether leadership changes would prompt a rejuvenated pace of economic or other reforms.
"The problem is that the party just can't form a consensus on what it should do to meet the challenges it now faces," said one Hanoi-based diplomat. "So will we see a new round of reforms and faster integration with the rest of the world? I think the answer is no, yes, maybe."