Haik's Forecast Discussion
Update: 12/7/05 4:40 PM
Consensus seems to fall in place for significant snow along the 95 corridor especially north of BWI.
Consensus take a track 50-55 miles south east of benchmark, far enough offshore to keep cities north of the southern jersey shoreline snow. Some sleet over eastern LI -Cape possible. D.C will mix a/times during the event. The track favors snow supportive temps/as low deepens energy from upper level low in Ohio/PA transfers to the low over the coast-which should drop temps along the coast. The low should explode off-shore missing inland areas w/the hefty snow/but close enough for sig accumulations-with the bigger totals along the coast. After sundays virga event the atmo should be moist enough for fri w/an quicker start to precipitation actually reaching the ground. As the low deepens, thunder-sleet is very possible along eastern LI to Cape. Even along the shoreline of new jersey/NYC and ct thundersnow may occur. Ratios north of Mason/Dixon line could reach 11:1-14:1 at a point when the snow is falling-especially as the low begins to deepen and finally starts to pull away. Evaporational cooling will once the snow starts falling, helping matters will be the very little snow pack currently in the area.
Another question that could impact the totals is if the low will stall as its in the process of redeveloping off the coast-possibly .We’ll save that for nowcast.
Currently:
Currently, I’d go w/ 5+” from BWI to BOS w/some sleet possible for a/time period
Currently the max along the 95 corridor would be 10".
From say BWI north east into ACY/up to Newark into NYC to Oxford 5-10" possible.Just north and west of NYC in NJ.-Morristown, for example can see up to a foot of snow with much higher ratios.
Map:
If I do not issue another forecast after this one, then this will be the final call.
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2005-2006 WINTER OUTLOOK:
Signs of a Above Average Snowfall, Below average cold.(North and eastern united sates 2005-2006):
- Warm (above everage) atlantic temperatures in and aroudn greenland may help formation of the greenland block and cause the NAO to go negative
- Central pacific Temperatures not "abnormally" warm, so it will not be a warm,mild winter.
- Central pacific Temperatures are actually a tad below average for september(currently)
- Warmer waters of western pacific surging east into southern pac hinting fluctuations during winter with a pos el nino (atleast a mild one)
- Hurricanes surviving longer even after they hit land (global warming) and also warmer water temps
-Heavy rain and flooding in Bolivia, Ecuador, Northern Peru,Cuba, U.S. Gulf States (Katrina)
-Fog: The more fog in August the more snow in the winter. Another month we keep an eye on for fog is October. The same is true, the more fog during this month the worse the winter. (late august, had one day with TERRIBLE VISIBILITES)
- August Temps: Hot temperatures in the first week in August usually means a cold winter, had plenty of back to back 90 days with unbearable humidy, heat index's reaching and even surpassing 100.
- Hornets: We've all heard that the lower the hornet's build their nests the colder the winter.
Key dates:
Thanksgiving: Flurries
Christmas: A white christmas, starting christmas eve(pattern favors, has happened many times in the last few years) Gen 6-12" storm for the Northern Mid Atl - SNE area.
Most Active months: january into february.
February will be the last month of winter and will be remembered as winter ends with one last big bang ( just like the last few years)
Boston: above average 44"+
CT: above average 42"+
Chicago: at or below avg/ at or below 40"
Det: at or below avg/ at or below 40"
NYC: above avg 37"+
Northern Texas: above avg 16"+ in some areas
Seattle: above avg 12"+
Come back soon for Haik's Daily Forecast!!
