Tropics
Ernesto- the first real tropical threat of the season. You may hear its a weak one but sustained winds aren't the only thing to worry about. Hurricanes tend to spin off tornadoes around the "eye" and with this aprticular hurricane I expect the main ISSUE to be TORNADOS. Ernesto will move into the south central coastal florida area. A track which actually is not soo common especially in the last few years. Ernesto will have two landfalls...The first somewhere west of Miami and expect the strongest winds to affect areas north and east of the circulation where places north and west see some dangerous tornados. Ernesto will be a potent tropical system which not wind....not tornados but also th FLOODING will be a major issue too. By this time next week you will be hearing reports up and down the eastern coast up I-95 of the flood warnings, how houses are under waters etc..Ernesto will leave a path of destruction but the main cause will be RAIN and TORANDOS rather then the winds from the hurricane it self. Ernesto will hit open waters a seocnd time -> Late wednesday into thursday Ernesto's center of circulation will leave the florida's coast back in the atlantic ocean off the eastern coast of floridas main land. In my opinion Ernesto will re-gather strength/will re-locate its eye and become an even stronger storm eyeing the carolinas. I believe Ernesto will become storng enough..will gather enough fuel in the warm waters(that have not been tested) of the atlantic and hit the carolinas as a minimum hurricane/weak hurricane. The question will be how long Ernesto stays over waters before hitting land again, if Ernesto stays over waters longer- the stronger it will become and the better chance it will have to wreck havoc even fruther up the coast even in our enck of the woods. Another scenario we cant rule out is Ernesto hugging the atlantic coast...eastern coast. If this does occur expect a weak hurricane riding up the coast, even reaching places like southern Nj in hurricane status. What will this mean for us around the greater NYC area? and LI? Gale Warnings- winds will be ripping- tides will be high and flooding will be atrocious. The rains alone should keep people on the edge. Ernesto has the POTENTIAL to drop record rainfalls around our region later into the week. Rains reaching a fott...12 inches. Two models here- and both have agreed on one thing so far...and thats the rain. It will come down and it will flood. The only disgareement right now is- what track will ernesto take..willw e have the rain with the dangerous ripping winds forcing beach closures...trees down..pwoer lines down...or will we have the ernesto with JUST the flooding rains. In my opinion its a lose lose situation and something to keep your eyes on. The ETA a very good short range MODEL takes ernesto and hugs the coast- while the GFS takes ernesto inland...cuting the center of circulation thru EATSERN PA- Meaning we get shafted with winds but get a heavy dosage of rain. If we take soemthing in between the two....the area can expect some gusty winds with tropical downpours.
Now onto signs of an COLD & SNOWY winter. YES! The atlantic waters show regression of heat and mvoent towards the pacific waters..This means the atlantic is cooling down meanwhile transfering its heat/fuel into the pacific. What this means for winter? Means no heta siland to worry about for coastal sections..means no sleet..means no rain...no mixture...no ocean affect to melt the snow into sleet and or rain as it comes down. What t may mean is plent of FROZEN..SNOW. It also means storms coming into the U.S from the pacific will be JUICY packing fuel with the warm waters on there side...as they approach the east temperatures will favor the frozen stuff.
Irene Current call:
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Atlantic Imagery:
Pacific Imagery:
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NOAA Satalite Imagery
