Chapter 10: Managed Poverty
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In the general course of human nature a power over
a man's subsistence amounts to a power over his will.
Alexander Hamilton in The Federalist Papers.
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In this chapter
I will examine the actual results of several liberal policies as contrasted
with their ostensible objectives. It is quite possible that you, the reader,
will agree with the objectives that were used to justify the implementation
of these policies since they are usually presented as ways to help some
people who obviously need help or to make the rich pay their fair share
of the cost of government or in some cases to promote the general welfare
of the nation. Once they are implemented we seem to have a tendency to
ignore the actual results of them.
I have already
dealt with the Federal Reserve System at some length but it must be considered
here as an example of a liberal policy that failed. The Fed was established
to eliminate bank panics and establish a stable monetary policy. After
the Fed took control of our money the nation experienced a sharp recession
in the 1920s, a depression of unprecedented magnitude and duration in the
1930s, a horrendous level of inflation in the 1970s, and inflation over
the last 50 years that has totalled over 1,000%. In short the Fed would
have to be considered a failure even if its record had been far better
than it actually was. It is true that bank panics have been virtually eliminated
since the mid-1930s but the credit for this accomplishment belongs not
to the Fed but to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Since the
establishment of the FDIC, bank deposits, up to a specified limit, have
been guaranteed by the federal government and bank panics have been eliminated.
Many banks, some of them very large, have failed but depositors have usually
lost nothing because the FDIC has usually made good even the losses that
exceed the amount the agency is obligated to pay. This has been good for
bank depositors, very good for bankers, and not very good for taxpayers.
The Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation guarantees deposits
in savings and loan institutions in the same way the FDIC guarantees deposits
in banks. In the recent S&L crisis the federal government spent over
$200 billion to avoid depositor losses caused in large part by illegal
or grossly negligent behavior on the part of those who controlled individual
S&Ls.
Another liberal
policy that was implemented by Congress early in this century was the graduated
personal income tax. This tax was imposed only after the Constitution was
amended to permit it because it was held to be unconstitutional before
the adoption of the 16th amendment. Initially the effect of this tax on
middle and lower income Americans was so slight as to be almost negligible.
It has since been revised and changed many times. At the present time the
tax code includes an earned income credit provision under which individuals
who have earned income below a specific amount receive a payment from the
government rather than paying any tax. When their income rises to certain
level they are required to pay taxes. The spread between the income at
which they receive a payment and the income at which they begin to pay
it is very slight because the income tax is assessed on Americans
with very low incomes.
For many years
the tax code included loopholes that permitted Americans with very large
incomes to pay little or no income tax and some of these loopholes still
exist. Even with no loopholes at all it is quite possible that the tax
remitted by individuals to the IRS is actually paid by the nation's consumers.
There is a wide income differential between individuals who make their
living in different ways. In most cases these differentials are dictated
by the law of supply and demand. In other words employers pay their employees
only as much as they must to attract the workers they need. If these differentials
are based primarily on pre-tax earnings then the people who remit the tax
to the IRS are actually paying that tax. If the differentials are essentially
based on after-tax earnings then the amount of the tax is essentially added
to the cost of doing business. The logical way to determine which way these
differentials are determined would be to compare the differentials existing
before the establishment of the graduated income tax and those that exist
at the present time. The results of such a comparison, however, would be
fatally flawed by the fact that technological advances in the interim have
created many new jobs that did not exist before the advent of the income
tax and the very existence of these jobs has skewed the relationship of
the income differentials of jobs that existed then and still exist.
There is a
hypothesis that may indicate whether income differentials are determined
on the basis of after-tax or pre-tax earnings and it is a hypothesis that
could become reality. Assume that Congress decides to eliminate the income
tax and replace it with a sales tax. A sales tax is a tax that is assessed
on specified purchases by the ultimate consumer. It is not the same as
a value added tax. The latter is imposed on products at various stages
between the purchase of the raw materials and the sale of the finished
product. This is a hidden tax, the consumer never knows what part of the
purchase price of any item represents tax. With a sales tax the consumer
knows exactly how much tax he pays.
If the income
tax were replaced by a sales tax the effects on different individuals would
vary greatly. In this case any part of current income that is saved will
incur no tax liability. The rate of the sales tax would be determined with
a view to raising approximately the same amount of revenue raised by the
income tax. If all goods and services are subject to the sales tax then
an individual who earns $40,000 a year and spends $40,000 a year will pay
the same amount of tax as an individual who earns $80,000 a year and spends
$40,000. Since the latter was paying to the IRS much more money than was
the former the latter will find his income substantially increased. This
is an extreme case since people with higher incomes will almost always
spend more on consumer items than people with low incomes. People with
higher incomes, however, will usually save more of their income than people
with lower incomes so the basic principle illustrated in the example above
will apply in all cases where the sales tax paid by an individual who spends
all of his income is compared to that paid by one who saves part of his
earnings.
Thus
it is obvious that when a sales tax is substituted for an income tax there
will be a few people who will pay roughly the same amount in both cases.
Most taxpayers, however, will find that they will pay either more or less
after this change is made than they did before. Virtually all of those
who will pay less will be those with relatively high incomes and virtually
all of those who pay more will be those with relatively low incomes. Those
whose tax will increase the most will be those who earn relatively low
incomes and, under the income tax law, were allowed to claim several dependents.
If food items are exempt from the sales tax, these people, and lower income
people in general, will derive a greater benefit from this exemption than
those with higher incomes will. This, of course, is due to the fact that
people with lower incomes spend a higher percentage of their incomes on
food.
Up to
this point it appears that substituting a sales tax for the graduated income
tax would result in lower income Americans paying more in taxes while those
with higher incomes will pay less but this is not the end of the changes
that this substitution would make. The upper income Americans will not
significantly increase their purchases of consumer items because in most
cases they were already buying nearly everything they wanted. On the whole
these people will simply save the extra money they will have. Since lower
income Americans will pay more in taxes they will not be able to purchase
as much in consumer items as they previously did. Because these people
comprise the bulk of the population reducing their consumer spending will
have a great and nearly immediate effect on the entire economy. The change
in the tax situation thus sets up an imbalance that the economy itself
will attempt to correct. This change has resulted, in effect, in an increase
in income for wealthier Americans and a decrease in income for lower Americans.
Theoretically the economy could respond by increasing the income of lower
income Americans or decreasing the income of upper income individuals.
Because the economy will be either contracting or expanding at a slower
rate than it previously was it is inconceivable that the economy will attempt
to increase the incomes of lower income Americans. Because upper income
Americans have, in essence, experienced a substantial increase in their
incomes the economy will automatically attempt to reduce their earnings.
A detailed explanation of how the economy will attempt to do this would
be too lengthy to include here but it would be manifested in a reduction
in the demand for certain goods and services. This imbalance has resulted
from the fact that the money remitted to the IRS by affluent Americans
was actually paid by consumers. When the income tax is eliminated the overall
level of prices still includes the tax component which now goes to those
who no longer have to pass it on to the IRS. The economy will eventually
reduce the incomes of most affluent Americans to the approximate level
of the income differentials that would have existed had there been no income
tax.
This will
take some time and in the interim the economy will be greatly affected.
If Congress, in the near future, does eliminate the income tax in favor
of a sales tax, the Fed will probably move to increase the money supply
in an attempt to exert an expansionary pressure on the economy. Inflation
resulting from an increase in the money supply will accelerate the change
in income differentials because it will be easier for employers to withhold
pay raises to employees who profited from the elimination of the income
tax than it would be to actually decrease their salaries. In any case,
regardless of how long the process takes, the economy will eventually establish
approximately the level of income differentials that would have existed
had there been no income tax, at least in those areas of the economy where
a free market exists.
If Congress
substitutes a sales tax for an income tax and the scenario described above
is played out it will prove that, under the present circumstances, the
money remitted to the IRS as income tax is actually paid by consumers.
Now what would be the result of this change if the differential in incomes
that presently exists is actually based on pre-tax incomes? In this case
the economy would be permanently dampened and affluent Americans would
enjoy a large, permanent increase in their earnings while lower income
Americans would experience a substantial, permanent loss of income. This
could only happen if the economy itself, meaning the decisions of all consumers
and producers, did not exert the pressures described above. To me this
situation is absolutely inconceivable.
If the
income differentials that presently exist are largely based on after-tax
earnings it means that lower income Americans are paying more tax than
what they actually pay to the IRS and Americans who earn their own living
but pay no income tax to the IRS are actually paying a part of the tax
of others. In this situation the level of prices and wages reflects the
fact that the cost of most of the graduated income tax has been passed
on to the consumer. When a sales tax is substituted for an income tax this
structure would not immediately change and until it does change consumers
would continue to pay in the price of consumer items that component of
the price that represents income tax and in addition they would also pay
the sales tax. The component of the price of consumer items that was formerly
remitted to the IRS will represent an increase in income to affluent Americans.
This may sound
like an argument against replacing the graduated income tax with a sales
tax but in actuality it is not. As long as we have a graduated income tax
people with lower incomes will actually be paying more tax than they think
they are paying and will not object to high tax rates because they think
someone else is paying those taxes. In addition to that, the graduated
income tax requires the large bureaucracy of the IRS to collect the income
tax and the IRS is very prone to violating the rights of taxpayers. A sales
tax could be administered and collected by a much smaller agency and one
that would seldom have occasion to violate the rights of American citizens.
Initially the change would benefit the affluent and penalize the poorer
classes but the economy itself would correct that situation by means of
the decisions of employers and consumers. When all consumers know how much
they pay in taxes they will support tax cuts and will oppose extravagant
government spending. In the present situation lower income Americans, who
constitute the bulk of the population, tend to favor government spending
because they believe that it is paid for by someone else and sometimes
feel that it benefits them.
The social
security system is another popular liberal policy that is not understood
by most Americans. The original premise of this system was that workers
who were presently employed would pay a small tax that would be used solely
to provide a small pension for Americans who had reached retirement age
and retired. When the system began in 1937 the rate of the payroll tax
was 2% and it was collected only on the first $3,000 of annual income.
1% of this tax was paid by the employer and 1% was withheld from the employee's
salary and remitted to the government. The employer's contribution to the
system was a cost of doing business and as such it was passed on to consumers.
This half of the tax is thus paid by consumers. The retirement age
of 65 was set with reference to the life expectancy of Americans at that
time.
The money
was deposited in a social security trust fund which could be used only
for the payment of benefits and expenses associated with the payment of
benefits. The original tax rate and the income cap remained unchanged until
1950. At the end of 1949 the fund had a balance of just over $11.8 billion
and total expenditures for that year were slightly less than $1.1 billion.
In 1950 the tax rate was increased by 50% to a total of 3% including both
the employer's contribution and the employee's contribution. In almost
every year since 1950 either the tax rate or the income cap, or both have
been raised. Total expenditures from the fund have also increased constantly.
These increases have resulted from the addition of a disability insurance,
expansion of benefits to people not previously covered, increases in the
level of benefits necessitated by inflation, and an increase in the number
of beneficiaries that resulted from an increase in life expectancy.
The system
was never intended to collect money from workers and invest that money
to create a retirement fund as is done by private pension plans. It was,
from the first, intended that the system would collect money from people
currently employed and promptly pay it out to beneficiaries. Nevertheless
it was necessary to maintain a balance in the fund to guarantee payments
in the event of an economic slowdown that might reduce the system's income.
This surplus is promptly invested in government securities. When this annual
surplus was large it caused the interest rates on government bonds to be
lower than it would otherwise have been. If the government had not had
access to the surplus in the trust funds it would have had to sell more
securities on the open market and that would have driven the interest rates
on those securities upward. When the government had automatic access to
the surplus of the trust funds it sold less securities on the open market
and sold them at a lower interest rate than would otherwise have been possible.
The government then paid this lower interest rate on the money borrowed
from the trust funds. The government thus paid a lower interest rate on
all of its bonds and the surplus in the trust funds earned less than it
otherwise would have.
During the
Johnson administration the government changed its accounting methods so
that the social security trust fund was included in the general budget.
The money in the fund was still dedicated to the payment of social security
expenditures and could not be used for any other purposes. In a manner
of speaking the money in the fund was used for other purposes of the government
since the government borrowed the money and spent it. In actuality the
securities in which the trust fund money was invested constitutes a part
of the national debt and must be repaid but it was included in the budget
as revenue. By this accounting method the federal deficit in any given
year was reduced by the amount of the surplus that accrued in the social
security trust funds in that year. By any rational accounting method it
would have been added to the deficit because it was money borrowed by the
government. In similar fashion the amount of the national debt should have
been increased by the amount of the social security surplus but it was
not. If a corporate accountant kept books this way he would probably end
up in prison. When presidents and legislators do it they get reelected.
In 1990 Congress prohibited this practice but it is still being done. This
is why we are being told that we have in 1998 a balanced budget and it
is also the reason we are being told that federal government income is
projected to exceed expenses by about $1.5 trillion over the next ten years.
All but $169 billion of that projected surplus represents a surplus in
the social security trust fund.
That $169
billion is the only real surplus that is being projected but the politicians
are debating how we should spend a $1.5 trillion surplus that will never
materialize. It is the height of absurdity for Bill Clinton and others,
including both Republicans and Democrats, to argue that some of this $1.5
trillion surplus should be used to safeguard the social security system.
Almost all of it is already dedicated to social security payments and,
unless the law is changed, cannot legally be diverted to any other purpose!
Before doing
anything about the problem of social security it is logical to consider
what the status of the program is at the present time and the projections
for its future. At the present time the rate of the tax is 6.2% for employees
and 6.2% for employers. The maximum income on which this tax is collected
was $68,400 in 1998. In addition employers and employees each pay 1.4%
to the hospital insurance fund which funds the medicare program. This tax
is applied to all income with no upper limit. In comparison to social security,
the medicare program is an exceedingly complex matter that is far beyond
the scope of this small book.
At the end
of 1997 the old age and disability insurance funds combined contained a
surplus of $655.5 billion. Most of this surplus was invested in special
issue government securities bearing interest at varying rates depending
on the date of issue. These securities cannot be sold to the public, either
by the Treasury Department or by the trustees of the social security trust
funds. The interest on these bonds is paid in the form of additional special
issue government securities.
At the present
time a portion of a recipient's social security benefits may be subject
to income tax, depending on the total amount of the recipient's income.
The maximum amount of benefits subject to income is 85% of the recipient's
benefit amount. This money does not go into the general fund but is returned
to the social security trust fund. The net effect of this tax is that social
security recipients with high total incomes receive somewhat less in benefits
from the trust fund. This is, of course, an income redistribution scheme
but it is one that actually accomplishes the objective for which it was
ostensibly established.
Every year
the trustees of the funds issue three projections of probable income and
expenditure figures for the next 75 years. One is called the high cost
projection and it is the most pessimistic of the three. One is called the
low cost prediction and it is the most optimistic of the three. The third
is called the intermediate projection and it is roughly halfway between
the other two.
Under the
intermediate projection the fund's income from payroll taxes is expected
to exceed its expenditures until the year 2013. Expenditures are projected
to increase faster than income from payroll taxes after 2013 because the
"baby boom" generation will begin retiring in large numbers thus increasing
the number of recipients. Total annual income of the fund is expected to
exceed annual expenditures until the year 2021 due to interest collected
on the fund's surplus. Beginning in 2021 it is projected that the fund
will draw on its surplus funds to meet its obligations and the fund is
expected to be exhausted by the end of 2032.
The low cost projection predicts that expenditures
will exceed income from payroll taxes by 2018 but the fund will not be
completely exhausted within 75 years. The high cost projection predicts
that expenditures will exceed income from payroll taxes by 2006 and the
fund will be exhausted by 2022. I have no way of knowing how accurate these
predictions are. Based on the overall history of government predictions
it would seem that they might not be very reliable. Government predictions
in economic matters usually seem to err in the direction preferred by politicians.
If that is the case here it would seem that the projections might be unduly
pessimistic because Congress seems to prefer to have the funds run a large
surplus.
With the exception
of three or four years the fund's surplus has increased every year since
the program began sixty years ago. As previously pointed out our politicians
have found a large surplus very useful in that it has permitted them to
hide a part of their deficit spending. If a large surplus can be maintained,
and especially if the surplus continues to grow, part of the payroll tax
is actually converted to a regressive income tax. Congress borrows the
money and spends it. If the borrowed money is never repaid and the surplus
continues to grow the amount of the surplus has been collected from lower
income Americans and used as general revenue. The government will continue
to pay interest on the borrowed money but the interest will be in the form
of government bonds. Since the government includes the surplus in its general
revenue for bookkeeping purposes the increase in the national debt will
show up as a decrease in the deficit. Therefore Congress will find it desirable
to increase the payroll tax to increase the surplus in the funds. If the
borrowed money is never repaid the surplus is converted to a form of regressive
income tax, even though it is still, theoretically, owed to the people
who paid the payroll taxes.
The logical
approach to this problem would be to advance the age of retirement. Actually
this has already been done. The retirement age will increase gradually
in future years to age 67. If the retirement age were increased to the
point where it would bear the same relation to life expectancy that it
did in 1937 this in itself would probably insure that the program would
be well funded for many decades with no increase in payroll taxes. This
would be just as fair to recipients as the program was in 1937 but it would
admittedly be unfair to new retirees compared to those who have retired
in the last thirty years or so. This approach would undoubtedly be politically
unpopular among older Americans though it might be popular with younger
Americans. It is far more likely that Congress will simply increase the
rate of payroll taxes and possibly increase the cap on taxable income.
The income cap is already indexed to the inflation rate but Congress could
increase it and then index the increased cap to the inflation rate. This
is what Congress has always done in the past and they will probably do
it again.
In the early
days of the social security program there were about 37 workers paying
the payroll tax for each person who received benefits. In 1997 there were
3.4 workers for every recipient. Less than 80% of the payroll taxes they
paid was paid out in benefits. More than 20% percent of them were added
to the surplus. The intermediate projection predicts that by 2072 there
will be 1.8 workers for each retiree.
There is some
reason to doubt the accuracy of all three of these projections. They are
based on the assumption that, even as the number of retirees increases
rapidly with the retirement of the baby boom generation, the number of
workers will decrease because the birth rate decreased substantially following
the baby boom years. In actuality it is highly improbable that the number
of workers employed would decrease significantly due to the lower birth
rate that followed the baby boom years. The reason is that our economy
would have to replace the large number of retirees and Congress would probably
increase our limits on legal immigration to provide the needed workers.
It appears to me that what actually transpires in the future will lie somewhere
between the intermediate projection and the low cost, optimistic projection.
The fact of
the matter is that there is no urgent social security crisis! By the most
probable estimate there will be a shortfall in about 35 years. By the most
pessimistic estimate there will be a shortfall in about 15 years. The payroll
taxes paid by workers over the past 30 years have resulted in a fairly
large surplus in the trust funds at the present time and, without any changes,
are expected to result in a very large surplus 20 years in the future.
Politicians are telling us that they must take action now and the reason
they are telling us that is because they want to maintain as large a surplus
as possible for as long as possible.
The best action
that Congress could take right now would be to eliminate payroll taxes
on the first $10,000 of earned income. This would create sound economic
expansion which would result in more jobs and higher real incomes. Both
of these factors would tend to increase the revenue from payroll taxes.
This increase in revenue probably would not completely offset the loss
from exempting the first $10,000 of earned income but it would offset much
of it. The surplus would then grow more slowly and this would not be a
bad development because it would leave a slightly smaller surplus to be
used by politicians to mislead the American people about the size of the
budget surplus or deficit and the amount of the national debt. If this
were done the payroll tax might well have to be increased at a future time
but it should only be increased by the amount that is needed and at the
time it is needed. When that time arrives it should be increased only to
the amount necessary to maintain a surplus equal to six months of expenditures
and the legislation should provide for an automatic increase in payroll
taxes whenever the projected revenue for a given year is expected to be
less than sufficient to maintain such a surplus. This legislation should
also provide for a cut in payroll taxes whenever the revenue is expected
to substantially exceed the amount necessary to maintain such a surplus.
If this were done the social security system would function in the way
its founders expected it to function.
l have dealt
with the social security matter at some length but the next liberal program
that I will consider can be disposed of quickly. This is the corporate
income tax. This is a favorite of liberal politicians who portray it as
a policy intended to make the rich corporations pay their fair share of
government expenses. In acuality the amount of this tax is treated as a
cost of doing business and as such is passed on to the consumer. Thus this
tax which is portrayed as gouging the rich is actually paid by the consumer.
The people who control our large corporations do not complain about this
tax because they like it. They like it because, as previously explained,
it makes it easier for them to expand the size and power of their corporations.
Another liberal
policy is the assortment of government subsidies lumped together under
the heading of the farm program. These subsidies were ostensibly intended
to make it possible for small farmers to continue to make a living on the
land in the 1930s. The benefits, however, were never limited to small farmers
and instead of benefitting small farmers they have made corporate farming
profitable when it otherwise would not be profitable. In 1970 it was revealed
during a debate in the House of Representatives on the farm program that
Courtaulds, a corporation of which the English royal family owned a major
share, collected $120,000 the previous year for not planting cotton on
a 38,000 acre plantation it owned in Mississippi. The House then cut the
maximum amount of subsidies that would be paid to one farm from $55,000
to $20,000. The Senate restored the maximum to $55,000 but added a provision
requiring recipients of the subsidies to reveal any foreign ownership.
What began as a liberal program ostensibly intended to permit American
farmers to remain on the land ended up contributing to the profits of foreign
entities that had displaced American farmers. These farm programs have
not been successful in keeping farmers on the land but they have made it
possible for corporations and other large farmers to receive a lot of money
from our taxes.
Still another
liberal policy that has not lived up to its promises is the policy that
created subsidized housing programs. We have spent a huge amount of money
on these programs, provided housing for a few poor people and created windfall
profits for those in the private sector who took advantage of the various
benefits offered to those who provide this type of housing. The "Low Income
Housing Tax Credit" program of 1986 is an example of these policies. It
provides a tax credit of $1.00 for each $.60 to $.70 investors invest in
a low cost housing project. The money these investors contribute is used
as "seed money", in other words they provide enough money to make it possible
to borrow the rest. In exchange for this credit they agree to rent some
or all of these units to people making 60% or less of the median income
in the locality. They must rent these units at an "affordable" rent as
decided by HUD. The developers usually build in localities where the "affordable"
rent is approximately the market rate. Thus the low income families pay
about the going rent and the investors receive a fine tax break. The same
type of results have been achieved in the past with other housing programs
that were set up differently.
Our public
welfare programs have been much in the news in the last few years. The
Republican party claims that they have "reformed" the welfare system. Their
reform basically consisted of limiting welfare payments to the beneficiary
for a period of two years. Shortly after these new regulations took effect
the results seemed to be quite positive as several states reported significant
decreases in the number of people receiving welfare payments. The reform
legislation, in the form in which it was finally adopted, did not, as far
as I have been able to determine, mandate any decrease in the size of the
federal bureaucracy. The estimates that I have heard of the amount of each
federal welfare dollar that is used to pay the cost of administering the
programs are between 70% and 80%. This means that the cost of welfare will
not be significantly reduced even by draconian cuts in payments to beneficiaries
if the administrative costs are not reduced by an amount far in excess
of the amount that would be proportional to the cuts in benefits.
One prominent
liberal contended that welfare benefits to the poor should not be reduced
until we have first eliminated government subsidies to the affluent part
of our population. It might seem strange that this proposal was not enthusiastically
supported by other liberals if one accepts at face value the claim of liberals
that one of their primary concerns is to achieve just treatment for the
poor. If, as I have explained, the liberal movement is controlled and directed
by the planners it is not strange at all.
Even though
I believe that welfare programs should be reduced only after we have eliminated
all distributions of tax dollars to the affluent part of our society this
does not mean that I believe we should continue spending for welfare at
the current rate. The administration of our welfare programs could be done
by the private sector much more economically than it is done by the federal
government. The administration of these programs could be delegated to
existing charities through branches of those charities created solely for
this purpose or it could be administered by the private sector by means
of contracts with individuals. In either case the results would be about
the same.
What would
the results be? Let us assume that the present requirements remain unchanged
or revert to what they were prior to the recent welfare reform. Since the
payments to beneficiaries would be unchanged they would represent somewhat
less than 30% of our present expenditures. For purposes of calculation
I will assume that the benefits paid would be 28% of our present expenditures.
There is a considerable amount of fraud involved in the operation of our
present welfare system. There is no logical reason to expect that such
fraud would increase if the system is administered by the private sector
but since we all know what larceny lurks in the hearts of those who operate
the Salvation Army and similar organizations I will make the gratuitous
assumption that fraud will increase. I will therefore assume that the amount
paid in benefits will increase by 10% due to an increase in fraudulent
claims. When this amount is added to original 28% the total of benefits
actually paid increases to 30.8% of the amount we presently pay. The charities
or businesses who administer the program would be paid a percentage of
the benefits received by the recipients. I believe this would be a profitable
business if those who administer the program receive 10% of the benefit
amount, or even less, but rather than err on the optimistic side I will
stipulate a figure of 15%. When we add this to the cost of the benefits
the total is now 35.42% of the present cost. Some supervision by the federal
government would still be necessary to insure that the program is correctly
administered. The reasonable cost of this supervision would probably be
less than 5% of the benefits paid but since this will be an operation of
the federal government I will triple that figure and make it 15%. The total
is now 40.55% of the present cost. I believe that I have overestimated
the cost of administering welfare payments in this way but just to be on
the safe side I will increase the amount by 20%. The cost is now 48.66%
of what we are presently spending and in all probability it would in actuality
be considerably less and welfare recipients would receive the same benefits
they presently receive. In short we would cut the cost of welfare by more
than 50% with no decrease in benefits at all. By contrast the welfare "reform"
program cut benefits significantly but, I suspect, reduced the total cost
of the program by a very insignificant amount.
The
cost of the program could be further decreased by a significant amount
if those parts of the current system that are demonstrably of little value
were simply eliminated. These would probably consist mostly of vocational
education programs that train people for trades that the trainees do not
pursue.
There are
other liberal economic policies that merit consideration but I will have
to limit myself here to one final example. The Employment Retirement Income
Security Act of 1974 contributed greatly to the problems with health care
that presently plague the nation by limiting the cost to large corporations
of providing health care to their employees and at the same time increasing
the cost of health insurance purchased by individuals and small businesses.
A full explanation of this matter is beyond the scope of this book but
there is another provision of the same act that can be explained quite
briefly.
ERISA
made the federal government responsible for the payments to retirees of
all private pension plans whenever those plans lack the money to make these
payments. This means that the government is obligated to collect
money from taxpayers who are not covered by private pension plans and pay
it to those who are in the event that any of these plans are unable to
meet their obligations. The employers' contributions to these plans are
a part of the compensation paid to their employees. The employee is promised
a specific monthly pension the amount of which depends on years worked
and average salary. Every year the employer is required to make a contribution
to the plan that will, prudently invested, be sufficient to pay the pensions
of all elegible employees when they reach retirement age. The amount of
the contribution necessary to do this will depend primarily on the return
on the plan's investments in the past and the return expected in the future.
The plan can be left with insufficient funds to meet its obligations as
a result of the failure of the employer to make all of the necessary contribution
or if the employer goes out of business. In either case it should be a
matter that involves only the employer and the employee; there is no logical
reason why the rest of the population should be forced to pay what the
employer promised but was unable or unwilling to pay.
The amount
of money involved in these plans is huge. About four or five years ago
the General Motors plans were underfunded by $20 billion. The cost to the
taxpayers of making good on this guarantee could well dwarf the cost of
the S&L bailout. The solution to this problem is utterly simple. Congress
should simply repudiate all government responsibility under these plans
for employees hired after the date of the legislation that repudiates the
government's responsibility for them. Employees hired after that date would
have to be covered under separate plans established by the employers for
them and these plans would not be guaranteed by the government. Employers
should not be permitted to make any contributions to these new plans unless
their plans covered by ERISA are fully funded. The federal government would
still be responsible for notifying employees covered under the new plans
of the status of their plans annually. To pay the cost of providing this
information the government would impose a small charge on each plan for
each covered employee. Even liberals should favor making this change since
the present situation may very well result in money being collected from
relatively poor people and given to those who are more affluent.