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Roulette Betting Systems Approaches
to Picking a Roulette Betting System Approaches to Picking a Betting SystemThe first step in developing a Roulette Strategy is determining a system for placing bets. A Betting System is simply a set of rules you employ to help you decide how you will place your bets during the course of a session. There are three basic scenarios that are often considered for a betting system. The first is a Flat Bet System in which you place bets of the same value and position on every spin. The second is a Progression Bet System in which you change the value of a bet each spin based on some condition within the game. The third is a Moving Bet System in which you change the position of a bet based on the tracking of previous spins on the table. We won?t spend too much time on Moving Bets here. What is the value of having a betting system? Many people play roulette without any system. They simply wing it. Is that bad? Not necessarily. Your chances for bets placed randomly are the same as bets placed at the same level in a methodical manner. This is a hard fact for a lot of people to accept. A bet is not anymore valid because you have thought about it more. Remember, a Betting System is only one part of setting up a Roulette Strategy. The other (and more important part) is having a solid Money Management System. The primary purpose for a betting system is to formalize what you do so that you can keep better track of your performance. Nonetheless, there is no shortage of opinions on betting systems. Lots of gamblers swear they have the answer - the foolproof betting system that wins every time. And many of them are more than willing to sell their systems to you. As we said previously, there is no was to overcome the house edge of the casino. If you decide they offer something interesting, bring it back to Roulette Revenge and try it out before you spend real money in a casino. Realize, however, that whatever you come up with for a betting system has already been thought of. Roulette has been played for over three hundred years and mathematicians have studied the game intently. You can rest assured, if there was a sure fire method for winning on a betting system alone, casinos would have a bonfire of roulette tables out in the parking lot. There are no magic systems; there is only luck.
Assessing RiskFor any betting system, there are two guiding factors:
The factor that has the most dramatic impact is how much you bet. The reason is that the amount you bet affects the risk you are willing to take on. If you increase your bets, you take on more risk. If you lower your bets, you reduce your risk. It almost doesn?t matter where you place your bets or what type they are. Let?s take a look at two extreme examples of how risk can affect the outcome of a session. Say you have $100 to gamble. In our first example, we put the entire amount down on an even money bet. If we win, we instantly double our money. If we lose, we lose it all. In the second example, we divide our $100 into 10 equal $10 bets. We can now play ten separate spins. Is it likely that we will double our money? No, but it is also unlikely (although possible) that we will lose it all. The lesson here is that your strategy should reflect how aggressive you are and how quickly you are willing to part with your money. Let?s analyze the risk in these two scenarios. In the first bet-it-all scenario, the odds of our losing everything are 20/38 or 52.63% or 1 in 1.9 chance Remember, the odds are greater than 50% because of the house advantage. In the second 10-spin scenario, the odds of our losing everything are calculated by taking the same odds as before but bring it to the 10th power: (20/38)10 or 0.16% or 1 in 613 chance The result is a significantly smaller risk - over 300 times smaller than the previous scenario. But the potential for gain is smaller, too. Flat Betting SystemsFlat bets are easy. You pick a bet type and an amount and you bet it over and over again. The only issue with this approach is that the results tend to be as flat as the bets. But it is a valid system and it keeps the player?s risk constant. The only influencing factor is luck itself. Progression Betting SystemsProgression Betting Systems set rules for changing the amount of a bet during the course of a session. There are two basic progressions ? Negative and Positive. A negative progression increases the amount of a bet when there is a loss and decreases it or stops when there is a win. And as you might expect, a positive progression increases a bet amount after a win and decreases it or stops when there is a loss. The idea behind a negative progression is that if you lose you will want to recover your loss as soon as possible. Many of the progression systems are based on even money bets with negative progressions. We mentioned the odds of losing earlier. Here is a more in-depth breakdown:
It is these odds that drive people to negative progressions systems. The probability that a losing streak will persist gets smaller as the streak progresses. The probability of losing 25 times in a row is up in the lottery area. So it is unlikely that losing 25 times in a row will happen to you. On the other hand, people win the lottery every week. The problem is that losses don?t always come together. The pattern of a session can be either streaky or choppy. Consider the following win-loss patterns of 5 spins: L L L L W L L W L L In the first, we encounter four straight losses. The odds of this happening are 7.67%. In the second, we have two series of two losses each with a 27.7% chance of happening. In either of these cases, the outcome will probably not be very good. Now there are factions who twinge when they hear about negative progression betting. They say, ?You have to be crazy to bet more when you are losing.? It might be truer to say, ?You have to be crazy to bet.? Period. You can just as easily make an argument that it is foolish to increase your bets when you are winning, since you may lose what you have gained. In any case, we must reiterate, that there is no right or wrong, only a decision to bring on more risk when you feel the time is right. There are many progression systems out there and many more variations. In the following sections, we have outlined a few of these systems so that you can get a basic sense of how they work. The Martingale SystemThe Martingale System is the classic negative progression. It is based on a sound mathematical principle and it works. And, by the way, you should never use it. The principle is simple: every time you lose, you double your next bet. If at any point your losing streak turns around, you net everything you lost previously plus the amount of your initial bet. The problem is that the doubling can get out of hand, and you will probably exceed your bankroll quickly. Let?s say you start with an even money bet of $1:
After 5 continuous losses we have shed $63. After 10 losses, we are up to $2047 ? all so we can net $1. As we stated earlier, there is a somewhat small probability that 10 losses in a row will happen. But, In fact, it will happen once in every 613 10-spin sessions. And if you consider all the tables in your favorite casino, along with all the spins that take place, you might find that it could happen once a day. Whether it happens to you or not is another story. The Martingale is one of the reasons that casinos have a maximum bet limit at their tables. This is to protect themselves from high rollers that can afford to ride the system out far longer than the average person. So, unless you have an infinite amount of money and a casino that will let you bet that much, the Martingale is a waste of time and money. You can, however, try a variation of the Martingale with a fixed number of spins. For instance, you determine that you will ride the progression for up to 5 losses. At this point, you cut your losses and start a new session. You may also hear about a Grand Martingale system, where you not only double your bet - you add some more to boot. If we recommend staying away from the Martingale, you can imagine what we have to say about the Grand Martingale. Roulette Revenge lets you develop Martingale strategies in all their ?glorious? variations. The D?Alembert or ?Pyramid? SystemThe D?Alembert System is also a negative progression system but instead of doubling your bet amount when you lose, you increase it by an increment equal to the bet start amount. When you win, you then decrease the bet by the same increment until you are back to the start amount. Obviously, the reason it is called the Pyramid System is that your bet amount steps up then back down. This system can be a little less stressful than the Martingale since the bets climb in a more manageable fashion. They can still grow quickly however, so you need to be prepared to deal with the consequences or establish a stop-loss point. Let?s look at a Pyramid system example by keeping a running balance of our bank amount. Let?s start out with a $100 bank and set our bet increment to $10. We will stop after 4 spins ? losing the first two, and then winning the second two:
Not bad. We lost twice and won twice, but still came away with a $20 profit. With a flat bet system, two wins and two loses would have gotten us back to our starting bank amount. Remember what we said earlier, however, there is no magic in the system itself. It is simply a condition of our escalating the amount that we are risking. This scenario could easily have gone sour. See what happens when we lose 4 times in a row - a 1 in 13 possibility:
Busted in 4 spins. Be prepared for this kind of outcome. You may want to pick a start amount that is a lower ratio of your bank amount ? 1/20, for instance (or $5 in our scenario). This will help you to play longer and maybe hit that winning streak. Another variation of the Pyramid system is to select an increment amount that is smaller than the bet start amount. Remember, while tables generally have a minimum bet limit, your bet does not have to be in increments of this limit. If you are at a $5 table, you can place a bet for $6 or $12. Just ask the dealer for chips in smaller units. For example, let?s look at our first Pyramid scenario, but this time change the bet by $2 increments:
This time we take a $4 profit. However, if we lose 4 times again:
We would only be out $52. Roulette Revenge supports configuration and testing of many Pyramid system variations. Custom Negative Progression SystemsIn the previous two systems, we saw two extremes in how bets can progress ? exponentially as in the Martingale and linearly as in the Pyramid. If one is too aggressive for your tastes and the other is not aggressive enough then, there is nothing to stop you from developing your own custom series or progression rules. Let?s look at an example where the bet increment, instead of staying steady, increases in a linear fashion. So rather then adding 2, 2, 2, and 2, you would add 2, 4, 6, and 8. Let?s look at the chart again:
With the same win-loss scenario, we now net $6. A custom series can be anything you like. Just remember, the higher the numbers in the series, the more risk you are assuming. Try a slow progression like 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, etc. or a reverse increment like 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 0. Parlay SystemFinally, a positive progression system, the Parlay system, often referred to as ?Let it Ride?. This is really simple. When you win, you leave your winnings on the bet for the next spin. The question with Parlay, is how may times to repeat the process. Obviously, if you always do it, you will always lose all your money. So a good rule of thumb is to do it once. If you win the second time, pocket the profit and return to the start bet amount. Essentially, Parlay is very similar to Martingale in that on even money bets you are doubling your bet every time you win. And it is just as risky. Let?s see how the Parlay fairs in our 5-spin scenario. We start with the same $10 bet and keep it there till we win:
Here we only had one chance to parlay. Remember, this system relies on consecutive wins. Say instead we had a Win-Loss-Win-Loss:
Ouch, that hurts. Out $20 bucks. Remember, no matter what your betting system, luck is the deciding factor. Roulette Revenge supports the configuration and testing of parlay betting configurations. Paroli SystemIn the Paroli System, after a win, you not only parlay, but you also add the original bet amount on top (the bet you would have played if this were a flat bet). This system is almost like the Grand Martingale mentioned earlier but in reverse. And it is just as hyperactive. If you like risk, this a system for you. Roulette Revenge supports the configuration and testing of Paroli betting configurations. Custom Positive Progression SystemBoth of the previous positive progressions have a high built-in risk. As we mentioned with Custom Negative Progressions earlier, you can create your own series for Positive Progressions to adjust the level of risk. In a sense, you can create a series that acts as a partial parlay. In following, we only add two dollars to the ten dollar bet:
And we come away with a $2 profit. ConclusionBetting systems are only one part of a gambling strategy. A money management scheme is critical for any successful strategy. In fact, even if your betting system is based on astrological charts and meditative mantras, you can still have a successful strategy with solid money management. And as we have stated, we supply a number of sample strategies with betting systems in Roulette Revenge that can you experiment with, modify and analyze. |
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