| Matt's Synoptic Forecast Weather Page |
| Monday, October 14, 2002 |
| Concentrating on large-scale weather phenomena affecting Eastern Pennsylvania and the tropics. |
| Well, it happened. A strong cold front plowed through the region last night dropping temperatures significantly and pushing the lingering clouds/showers from the remnants of Tropical Storm Kyle and an associated upper-level low out to sea. As it did so, the bitingly cold air triggered a final shower here just outside of Lancaster around 800 PM last night. Rainfall totalls for the past 4 days for the Lancaster PA area are around 2 inches. Skies have now all but cleared as a broad high pressure system has pushed its way in from the mid-west. Anticyclonic circulation will assure a cold, North - North-westerly wind for much of the day today. Now, this northerly flow of air, combined with appreciable radiational cooling tonight due to minimal cloud cover will cause TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO BE VERY VERY COLD! Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s here in Lancaster County with only slightly higher readings towards the more urbanized areas of Harrisburg and Philadelphia. Now, the National Weatehr Service Forecast, as of right now, is calling for rain to begin on Tuesday. However, looking at the NCEP Numerical Models, I don't think this high pressure is going to be so quick to clear out of the region. How does a broad high pressure system breeze through a region in a single day? I mean c'mon. The surface analysis maps on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's Web Site (www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov) seem to agree and show a slightly slower progression of.. what will apparently be a Nor'Easter.. a low pressure system sliding north along a cold front (yes, the same type of setup that traditionally brings us snow). Of course, temperatures are still a bit high for snow, so don't get your hopes up.. it's not gonna happen.. (not too mention the surface temperature). What we will likely get is another good rain. Lots of rain.. probably another 2 inches or more. The pressure gradient associated with this low pressure system - which is forecast to slide right up the U.S East Coast- may also bring us some gusty winds. Again, the time frame for this is TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY before the cold front along which this low is developing pushes it.. and everything with it.. out to sea. This is a cold front, so don't expect any significant rebound in temperatures either.. we're headed into winter folks... MATT 10/14 |
| Tuesday October 15, 2002 |
| Coming off a chilly night here in Millersville. According to records kept at the Millersville University Weather Information Center (www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic), the low temperature reached 32 degrees early this morning. Wellp, as I had suspected, high pressure is still influencing the region, even as it is being rapidly pushed out by the oncoming frontal system. It appears that a low pressure system in Canada (which is dropping this cold front on us) is pushing the high pressure center NorthEastward.. out of our region. But hey.. look.. it's 12:10 PM as of my writing this.. and do you feel any rain-drops yet? I didn't think so. The NWS overshot in forecasting "periods of rain" for Tuesday. That rain will, however, come later tonight.. of that, I assure you. The numerical models are in near perfect consensus of this warm low-pressure center sliding from the Gulf of Mexico rigth on up the Interstate 95 Corridor. This will bring us rain, rain, rain and more rain. It may also bring us gusty winds and potentially severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center doesn't seem to be indicating anything major on their Convective Outlooks (see:below), but some veteran forecasters such as Larry Cosgrove (in his WeatherAmerica Newsletter) are (for all intensive purposes) freaking out and predicting some really nasty stuff within the next 48 hours. "But what do you forecast, canoe man?" Well, I think I'll stick somewhere in between Cosgrove's "end of the world" scenario and the NWS's seeming apathy about the oncoming storm. I think we will get a good rain, no doubt about that.. perhaps 2 inches. This system will be fast-moving as well, so I will not forecast much more than 2 inches... although the rain very well may fall heavy at times, this will most decidedly be a WEDNESDAY thing.. the precipitation will start late tonight and taper off by Wednesday night. The bulk of the precipitation should fall tomorrow morning (or so it appears). It appears that this should all be out of here by Wenesday evening, and clear skies will return for the latter portion of the week. Again, there will be no significant rebound in temperatures.. lows in the lower 40s and highs no higher than 60. I'm gonna run to lunch now folks; I'll keep you up to date.... Matt 12:50 PM 10/15/2002 |
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| Wednesday October 16, 2002 - (Primarily A Commentary) |
| In writing this forecast evaluation commentary/discussion, I find it necessary to divide my forecast area into two different segments. First is the Lancaster County/Central PA area (where I am). Second is the entire Philadelphia Metropolitan area. Lancaster / The forecast zones serviced by the NWSFO in State College PA: I must say, with an air of modesty of course, that my forecast was right on target for today. If you have read my forecasts over the last two days (see: below) and are in the aforementioned 'forecast area,' you know this to be true. Simply look at the Weather Trace information for Lancaster and Millersville towards the bottom of my web site to find this information. The heavy precipitation DID fall primarily in the morning (late morning - mid-day perhaps), the total precipitation HAS not exceeded 2 inches, and the pressure gradient HAS caused gusty winds in the area today. All has gone as planned here in Lancaster county as I sit here and write this, completely soaked from the waist down... Philadelphia, and It's Enitre Surrounding Metropoliatn Area / The forecast zones serviced by the NWSFO in Mt Holly, NJ I was VERY SURPRISED this afternoon as I looked at the Radar Estimated Storm Total Precipitation Image (see below) from the Fort Dix Radar (KDIX - the doppler unit used by the Mt Holly / PHI forecast office). As I continued to look at doppler radar and satellite imagery and look at the observations for this area today, I became even more shocked and bewildered. The entire Philadelphia suburban area received little more than a mist today, as I (again) sit here... completely soaked. Was it less than 2 inches? Yes, so I think you can't argue with my forecast there. Were there gusty winds? Absolutely... at least there should have been. Observations in many areas seem to corroborate the fact that this did indeed occur. Gusty winds were more prevalent towards Philadelphia than in my area today because of the tigher pressure gradient produced by the low-pressure center of circulation (so to speak) just off the NJ coastline. Still, there even seems to be a lack of solid cloud cover over the PHI metroplex. I don't understand this at all. You could practically draw a dry line about 50 miles west of Philadelphia. Everything east of that point remained so dry it just makes me wanna crap myself. Were there mesocyclones, damaging winds, and tornadoes all over the place? No... sorry Cosgrove (that applies to both regions, by the way) Although many wind gusts may have approached damaging strength, no significant severe weather events occured in our area of which I am aware. And oh.. I'm watching.. trust me... I'm always watching... I will likely pose questions in e-mail / USENET discussion grups amongst the Storm Spotting, Storm Chasing, and meteorological communities to discuss what the hell happened. I for one, don't understand the precipitation shield the Mt Holly NJ forecast area seemed to be under... Look for clearing skies tomorrow and a continued cooler temperaure trend over the next couple of days. I'll keey ya posted... Matt 5:45 PM 2145Z 10/16/2002 |
| Comment for Thursday October 17, 2002 |
| In watching the weather events unfold Thursday, I ws slightly puzzled as to from where the thick, low cloud cover and rain came. The surface analysis maps showed our region being overtaken by a high pressure system (which, as we all know ;) ;), is generally associated with divergence, subsidence, and generally fair weather). Along with some commentary on the current weather by one my Atmosphere Lab professor, I concluded that an upper-level disturbance was causing the precipitation. An upper-level shortwave trough was responsible for the precipitation today. A shortwave is a disturbance in the upper atmosphere which moves cold air over a region, and increases vorticity, thereby enhancing convection. In response to my failure to predict this event (until yesterday morning I had no tools on my web site whith which to detect such upper-level disturbances), I have placed 500 mb and 700 mb upper air analyses towards the bottom of this web page. I am still learning, I admit it. Remember, I am not a meteorologist nor have I taken any advanced meteorology courses yet. I am Storm Spotter, a weather enthusiast, and an aspiring meteorologist. Bear with me here as I continue to learn more about our atmosphere, so that I might better serve you. Matt FRI 10/18 3:45 PM EDT 1945Z |
| Friday October 18, 2002 |
| Well, a broad high-pressure center has its grip on our region right now and it lavishing us with fair skieslots of sun, and more seasnonably-appropriate temperatures. This high pressure system should lose its grip on our region when a low-pressure center and its trailing cold front croses through our region tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will likely bring us a few clouds and maybe even a light breeze out of the West/Northwest, HOWEVER, the strength of this cold front is expected to diminish as it progresses trhough our region. The weak thermal boundary WILL NOT cause saturation to occur as readily as it did with our past two storm systems. Cooler air encountering cool air... don't expect anything more than a minor drizzle out of this one, folks. The energy for a good rainstorm simply isn't present in the equation. By Monday morning, it appears that any cloud cover associated with this system will be gone and a high pressure ridge will build in from the plain states. Again, temperatures will remain on the cooler side through at least next week(high temps not exceeding 55 - lows dipping towards freezing, with slightly higher readings in the more urbanized areas, of course). Fall is here, and winter is coming.. I can just feel it... Matt 10/18 4:20 PM EDT 2020Z |
