Who is taking the bigger risk here? Telfair, forgoing college and a chance to fine-tune his game and work on his shaky jumper, or Adidas for forking up a large sum of cash on an unproven player?
As one Nike executive stated it "Adidas just bought a lottery ticket on someone who won't be in the lottery."
In my opinion, neither side is making a wise decision here. The only difference in Adidas' case, as much as $15 million may be, Adidas will be able to survive to see tomorrow if Telfair is a bust. The same cannot be said for Sebastian if he does not properly settle into the NBA.
Already figured to be too small, too poor of an outside shooter and not quick enough to penetrate well, Telfair's biggest challenge will be learning the NBA game. Point guard is by the far the most difficult position to play in the NBA. It requires inate play-making abilities, incredibly fast and smart decision making, leadership, and most importantly, poise. Its hard to imagine someone coming into the league at such a young age being able to play the position efficiently. Of course Tony Parker was only 19 when he was drafted and became a starter eventually in his rookie season, and look how he has blossomed. On the other hand, being taught by Greg Poppovich and playing alongside Tim Duncan certainly aided Parker's transition from "young-player" into budding superstar.
What if Telfair does not have the same luxury Parker had? Often, if a young player gets drafted by a bad team with no sense of direction and is asked to be that team's savoir, the player's confidence disappears along with their talents. There have been countless gifted quarterbacks and "can't-miss" prospects drafted in the NFL who never show a glimpse of the expectations they were supposed to live up to. Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf, and Cade McNown come to mind as a few examples. In a sense point guards and quarterbacks are a lot alike, and what if Telfair draws the wrong cards and is dealt with a bad team in a bad situation. His confidence, talents and career may all be wasted.
More importantly, what if Telfair is simply not that good? He has shown signs and enough potential to make him a first round pick, but carries just as many question marks. A year or two in college would only help develop his jump shooting and overall game, and I think thats the route he should be going.
However, I can fully understand why he is making the leap from preps to pros. Adidas is certainly showing him the money, and at this point in time, I believe he's going to need as big of a contract as he can get his hands on, because he won't be around very long.
