2002 Election Outcome: from the right

The Michigan Partisan

By Page W. H. Brousseau IV

TIMES STAFF WRITER

The historic gain by the Republican Party in Congress on Election Day will embolden the president's hand, and in the end, force it. The Republican gain in the House, Senate, and slighter loss than expected in the governors' races prove three things.

First is the country, for the most part, has accepted the president as its leader. If the Democrats refused to believe the popularity the public had for the president after 9/11, the results of the election must lead them to accept this.

When Bush went in front of crowds during his 12-day campaign tour of the country and said, "Give me a Senator that will approve Homeland Security, will approve my judges, and will approve permanent tax cuts," the people responded. The only contested Senate race Republicans lost in which Bush campaigned for was in South Dakota.

That is not to say the country is 100% behind the president, but the country for the most part supports Bush, the people trust him, and think of him as a smart and decent man. If Democrats refuse to grant the president this they will do so at their peril.

The second and most important result is that Bush's wartime popularity has attracted supporters to him and seemingly the Republican Party. Even with an increase in voter turnout over 1998, the Republicans attracted more votes than their rivals did.

The Weekly Standard editor and FOX News contributor William Kristol summarized the Election Day results claiming that new Republican Voters were Bush Democrats, who would vote Democrat but believed strongly in Bush's foreign policy goals and voted Republican to express that belief.

The third result from Election Day is that the Democratic Party is adrift philosophically and without leadership, in much the same way the Republican Party was after 1964 with Barry Goldwater's defeat by President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Even though the Republicans then and the Democrats now seem to be swimming against the tide, there is an important difference between then and now. That difference is Goldwater went down swinging, fighting for what he believed in, and many were willing to pick up his standard and fight on, most notably Ronald Reagan.

What did the Democrats believe in this year? In Bush's tax cut? In the War on Terror? In the pending war with Iraq? The answer to those questions depended on whom you asked. Many of the Democrats in tight races voted with the president on these issues. Even some of those seeking the Democratic presidential nomination voted with the president, but only after speaking out against Bush, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-MA) comes to mind on this point.

Already Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO) has stepped down from his leadership position in the House, and Majority Leader Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) has seen his stature shrink in Democratic circles. Leaving the party, already without a clear leader now, hanging by a thread. Bill Clinton's moneyman, Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe will be dismissed as soon as a replacement can be found.

I believe this will leave Bill Clinton to reclaim the party as his own. If history has taught us anything it is this: Bill Clinton cannot assume responsibility for anything, and he cannot stay out of the spotlight. Clinton will work mercifully to ensure his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) will be to run for the nomination in 2008.

In addition, the soon to be Democratic Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from San Francisco believes the Democratic Party needs to appeal more to those on the left in the future. Whether this is a winning strategy is debatable, but many within her party are leery of this departure from the political center.

Now what will a Republican President and Republican Congress bring? It could spell trouble for Bush if he is not too careful. He can no longer blame a stagnant economy on a Democratic Senate; further, he cannot campaign for reelection in 2004 against a "do-nothing" Congress.

He needs a record to campaign on. Tax cuts passed last year will be permanent, judicial nominees bottled up in the Senate will be voted on, but programs long supported by Republicans, like major changes to Social Security and the tax code, may be tweaked instead of overhauled. Bush must first be reelected and increase the Republican majority in Congress before any major change in Social Security or taxes can be implemented. However, President Bush has a knack for surprises, meaning that only Bush and his advisor, Karl Rove, know what is in store for the next two years.