Anatoly Protopopov

Some Statistical Data Concerning Marriage Adverts Efficiency

I express my acknowledgements to Maria K. and Anna Sh. for help in preparing the materials.
Translation from Russian by Alexander Otenko.

Data taken from the acquaintaincies server "missing heart" (www.mheart.ru) corresponds to 14 FEB 2001 (statistics is publicly available) There are 12251 female and 10841 male entries registered on the server at that moment.

The first twenty

 

Chart 1. Browse intensity distribution for the twenty most popular entries.
Green - female popularity; blue - male.

The most amazing thing is not that female entries are browsed significantly more often, but that dispersion of male entries popularity is far more. In other words, "the best lad on the server" is almost as popular as "the first lady" whereas "the twentieth best lad" is TEN times less popular, meanwhile "the twintieth best lady" is only twice less popular than "the first"... I am forced to admit certain resemblance to the case with sea lions, of which 4% males impregnate 88% females...

Input data for charts 2-4 was obtained by courtesy of the www.rlrl.net server administration, having been collected from 1 to 15 JAN 2001. At that moment there were 1134 female and 1536 male entries present on the server.

Browse distribution by the age of applicants

Chart 2. Browse intensity distribution between males' and females' entries by their ages. Taken from the "Different people" acquaintance server.
Red - female popularity; blue - male.

Notoriously there is almost 1.5 as many male entries as female, therefore the relative browse intensity is even more apparent.

At this point it is important to say that this data relates to the Internet users only, of which group the structure is rather different from that of the rest of the Russian population. For example, there are twice as many males as females; the majority of them are undergraduates, people with higher or technical education; many people are quite well-off. Nevertheless, we can easily neglect the fact of quantitive prevalation of males in the Internet, because being an Internet user does not confine his access to the females outside of this category.

Diagram 3 (below) reflects the correlation between attention paid to the female entries and her having children. Amount of attention paid to mothers younger than 26-28 seems to be unnaturally small, because most of the entries are concerned about childless women. Therefore the diagram contains a corrected in accordance to the correlation between mothers' entries and childless females value representing the number of browses. As we can see young women with children are about twice or thrice less interesting for the site customers. However, they are more interesting than childless women who are a bit older, in the end of the day. Starting with thirties the presence of children does not affect woman's popularity at all. This accords well with the sociologists' opinion that a woman with one child has almost the same chances to marry again as childless do. Apart from that this data is interesting by itself, it allows us to estimate the intentions of the site customers. It is known that women themselves browse the entries of other women on such sites with great deal of curiousity; sometimes with even greater attention than those of males.

So far so good. Ok, since we observe a distinct drop of interest to the entries of young mothers we could definitely make a conclusion about site customers being seriuos enough in their intentions. Frankly speaking, availability of children would not influence on desire to flirt or on satisfaction of mere curiosity of both males and females browsing female entries. Thus the majority of those who browse the entries are having not only a long-term relationship in mind, but obviously they mean to create a family. The popularity of women over 30 is not affected by children, as a matter of fact. This happens mostly because that there are not many childless women at this age; along with that males who are interested in women over 30 are not too demanding. At the same time the fun-seeking customers of the site are not much interested in this category, thus their distorting influence on the statistics is insignificant.

Influence of maternity

Diagram 3. Influence of being a mother on browse intensity of women entries on the "Different people" acquaintancies server.
Red - popularity of all the females; green - mothers; magenta - mothers (corrected).

Relative browse numbers

Diagram 4. Distribution of relative browse numbers by the age of the "Different people" acquaintancies server applicants.
The diagram shows the average number of browses from 1 to 15 JAN 2001 of one entry for each age. The highfrequency fluctuations were smoothed.
Red - all of females; green - mothers; blue - males.

In general, the 3-d and 4-th diagrams support each other. Take heed that entries of males under 27 are ten times less interesting than those of females, and result in 0.6 browses in 15 days. The highest interest is paid to the entries of males of 40-45, but even in that age women are almost twice as needed... Again, the conclusion about that having children has a slight influence on woman's chances to marry. Although we cannot tell which women had one child and which had more, because input entries were not properly classified for that.
It is easily observed that the relative browse rate for female entries is almost constant for any age; one is less than double the size of the other. This proves once more that fact that fun-seeking customers form quite a small crowd, because they are mostly attracted to the young. The majority of the customers are quite serious.

The diagram below reflects the data I have collected from 1995 to 1997 by analysing marriage adverts from the "Iz ruk v ruki" newspaper.

Meetings outcomes

Diagram 5. The outcomes of the first meeting appointed in reply to marriage adverts.

I have analysed about 230 cases. Only a couple cases resulted in fairly permanent relationships (several years). As we can see from the diagram above, women do not attend the meetings more often (every third against 2% man); and they refuse to meet any longer in the same times more cases with a mutual decision(13.7% against 1.5%). However, in most cases (49%) the disappointment is reciprocal. 1.3% - Relations continued for a while. This only goes along well with analysis of the adverts in other newspapers and the Internet acquaintancy agencies.

To conclude:
The information above can be a substantial proof of the well-known in ethology Principle of Irreplacibleness of the Female. So, as in the rest of animal kingdom, women are dynamically deficient; demand of them is significantly higher than the offer. Another fact: the Ministry on family affairs of Austria stated that about 5% males commit a suicide in connexion with a divorce... whereas there is less than 1% of females who do that for the same reason. I cannot judge if it is an occasional occurence or not, but correlation between relative numbers of browses of female and male entries has about the same ratio...

Treatise of Love, How It Is Recognised by an Awful Bore.

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