The months from November to January are amongst the strongest of the year historically. Portfolio positioning, tax selling, and sector rotation will be the watchwords for the duration of the year. That, and perhaps one last Fed cut, will motivate (or not) the markets over the rest of the year.

Have a nice Thanksgiving.  Next update is on Monday, 11/26! 

Closing Summary

Index	Last	Change	% Change
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.	9901.4	-75.10	-0.75%
S&P 500	1142.66	-8.40	-0.73%
Nasdaq Comp	1880.5	-53.90	-2.79%
Russell 2000 Index	453.9	-3.81	-0.83%

Send In The Marines
Washington may dispatch a force of as many as 1,500 Marines to Afghanistan to join the several hundred U.S. special-operations forces already pursuing bin Laden and coordinating airstrikes.

Weekly retail sales seen as lackluster
Sales gain over year ago, but warm weather cools activity

Retail chain-store sales slipped in mid-November, as warm weather dampened enthusiasm for clothes buyers. But compared to a year ago, sales were up modestly.

The day after Thanksgiving is the busiest shopping day of the year; Its viewed as an early indicator of the Christmas Shopping season.

Many variables are impacting retail shopping this year, including the War in Afghanistan and the Anthrax attacks domestically. Mall traffic, which was softening before the September 11th attacks, have continued to weaken -- It has declined 29 straight weeks. Compared to the same week a year earlier, however, retail sales were up 2.4 percent.

Reports do not give an indication of how strong sales could turn out for the holiday season. Last year, the day after Thanksgiving was a boon for retailers, but demand tapered off for what would be a lackluster holiday season. This year, analysts expect lower sales in late November, with retail buying to pick up modestly in the weeks ahead of Christmas.

- AMGN Amgen offered bullish 2002 earnings guidance after the close, forecasting earnings-per-share growth in the range of 20% and more, fueled by sales of new products. By comparison, analysts expect Amgen to rack up 2001 earnings growth of about 12%.

- FDX FedEx plans to boost rates for most shipments by an average of 3.5%. The move follows a price increase by rival UPS.

- MSFT Microsoft is set to settle scores of private antitrust cases that charge the company abused its Windows software monopoly. Under the settlement, Microsoft would provide software and computers to over 14,000 schools at an estimated cost of about $1.1 billion.

NEGATIVE TREND REVERSAL?
The market finally paid the price today and got smacked. What was amazing to me was the market's inability to rally much all day. Even mid-day when the market stabilized and moved up a little bit, it was a very unimpressive rally, especially on the Nasdaq 100.

More importantly, negative divergences were set up in that rally because at that point the S&P actually went to a nominal new high, but the NDX was far from it, and it was pressured most of the day by the SOX, or semiconductor index, which ended up down 30, or about 6%. That was a very ugly decline today.Many of the components of the SOX are in the Nasdaq 100, so we had a negatively diverging index there.

Regardless of that, the technicals were poor all day. This was the worst decline we've had on the Nasdaq since we had a intraday setback on the 8th of November. Other than that, we've only had two similar negative declines in the last month or so. Very possibly this could be the beginning of something that reverses the entire up trend we've had for the last two months, which has taken us up nearly 40% on the Nasdaq and 23% on the Dow and a similar % on the S&P 500

Right now resistance on the Nasdaq is up around 1580-85. On the S&P 500, which at 1140 has yet to break support (although it may do so 11/21), the key support there is 1130.

If we get a follow-through to the downside, Nasdaq 100 may be very well be headed towards an important test of support in the 1475-80 zone, and the S&P 500 would then be vulnerable to something down around 1110-15 area.
Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com)

Market Stats

Market	NYSE	Nasdaq
Total Volume	1342.27m	1964.41m
Up Volume	468.65m	354.94m
Down Volume	823.87m	1,551.17m
Advancers	1451	1363
Decliners	1678	2246
New Highs	82	66
New Lows	28	34

JDSU : The move last week breaks the long term down trend, as it broke out over $10; Buy 1/3 here, then use a pullback to add to the position. Use a stop of $9.50

ADLAC : Adelphia Communications is the most recent addition to our buy list. The stock behaved well yesterday despite the general market weakness. Short term traders can look for a run to 24.75 - 26, longer term holders aim for the low to mid 30s. We saw increasing volume as the stock rallied, a positive sign.

--DOX AMDOCS From a low of $25.45 on Oct 31, 2001 prices rallied, reaching a high of $29.50 on Nov 8, 2001. A decline saw prices pull back, reaching a low of $26.55 on Nov 16, 2001. Another rally saw prices penetrate resistance line closing 11/16/01 at $33.31. Momentum Index buy alert was given on Nov 13, 2001. Support is at $28.00, resistance is at $35.40. Point & Figure reversed to the upside on Nov 16, 2001. A P&F downside reversal takes place at $30.75. Technical indicators have turned bullish. Buy AMDOCS @ $33.50 - Use a protective stop of $30.75. Price Objective: $48.00. Risk/Reward: $2.75 vs. $14.50. Risk Reward Ratio: 5:1 (Source: Wall Street Trader)

Should We All Be Depressed About The Economy ?
Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach says the "recovery play" strikes him as "a head fake." Saying "the V remains a pipe-dream," he says "a US-dependent global economy is in a tough and synchronous recession" and "America not only faces another downdraft next year but it must still come to grips with a host of post-bubble aftershocks." (Dow Jones)

Technimentals (Kevin Lane)
Long: NBIX, SPLS, HTCH, INTL (Not ITEL, as written previously)
Short: VRSN, AEP, TUP

Things That Warrant Attention On The Charts

  Bull or Bottom ?
Yesterday, I mentioned that the WSJ may have been premature in declaring this to be a new Bull Market. Let me share the observations of my friend Tony Dwyer, Market Strategist at Kirlin:

"What is so interesting is that the media is talking about the recent gains in the indices as being a sign of a new bull market.  From a technical standpoint, that is not correct.  A bull market would be considered an intermediate to long-term trend higher.  An uptrend is defined as having higher highs and higher lows.  Look at a one-year chart of any index and you will clearly see we are not in an uptrend of any kind.  We are still in the long-term bottoming process that is likely to frustrate most market participants."  

"The optimist sees opportunity in every danger; the pessimist sees danger in every opportunity."
- Sir. Winston Churchill

Have a nice Thanksgiving.  Next update is on Monday, 11/26! 

Thanksgiving Proclamation
by: George Washington

October 3, 1789

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor, and Whereas both Houses of Congress have by their Joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanks-giving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th. day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be. That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks, for his kind care and protection of the People of this country previous to their becoming a Nation, for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his providence, which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war, for the greatest degree of tranquillity, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed, for the peaceable and rational manner in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted, for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed, and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions, to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually, to render our national government a blessing to all the People, by constantly being a government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executived and obeyed, to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shown kindness unto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord. To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and Us, and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

This is reprinted from George Washington: A Collection edited by W.B. Allen and published in 1988 by LibertyClassics.

--Barry Ritholtz
November 21, 2001

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