MALAYBALAY CITY -- Some interesting match-ups and a few surprises emerged as candidates for elective posts beat last Monday’s deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy.

As is characteristic of Philippine politics, erstwhile foes now found themselves in the same fold and old allies have parted ways, the shifts in alignment caused mainly by the failure to obtain concessions or the belief in the tried and tested formula that it’s best for candidates to cast their lot with the party that can give better prospects of winning.

With a few exceptions perhaps, this year’s elections in Bukidnon could prove to be “lousy” vis-à-vis the average Filipino’s traditional perception of the event as a form of circus or entertainment. Lakas (administration) bets in most, if not all, towns face no serious opponents. In fact, the number of candidates has drastically decreased in many areas, realizing maybe that theirs would only be a losing battle not to mention the financial costs involved in waging one. At the center of Bukidnon’s political landscape is the imposing figure of Gov. Jose Ma. R. Zubiri Jr., who has been candid about his intention to remain in the capitol until June 30, 2010.

No one doubts the enormous influence he wields in shaping the course of local politics due in large part to a mix of charisma and an economic base which no local politician can match as yet. Moreover, he has been very liberal in granting development assistance to the barangays and municipalities, a trait that was absent in his predecessors.

Now 63, Zubiri is more than assured of getting elected to a second term. His opponents are too weak to be given any serious thought. One is an unknown. Another is a self-anointed women’s leader who won as barangay councilor in 2002. Ernesto N. Tabios, a former governor, is also challenging Zubiri. But people still remember that Tabios won in 1988 against the late Timoteo Ocaya, a protégé of former governor Carlos Fortich, because Zubiri supported him. A string of political defeats in the past despite having enough resources could also stigmatize Tabios’ image among voters. Now ill-prepared and without a machinery to speak of, one could even ask if he is really intent on giving his former patron a good fight.

It’s a different case in the cities of Malaybalay and Valencia, where the mayoralty contests are expected to be close. In Malaybalay, Mayor Florencio "Doc Boy" T. Flores Jr. (Lakas) is running against Vice Mayor Nicolas C. Jurolan (LDP).

Flores was with the Partido ng Masang Pilipino of deposed president Joseph Estrada when he first ran for mayor in 2001 after completing his three terms as vice mayor.

Jurolan, on the other hand, was, until Jan. 5, a member of Lakas. He was a three-term mayor before running for vice mayor in 2001. Sources said he had wanted to run as representative of Bukidnon’s second district but was prevailed upon to give way to outgoing Valencia Mayor Berthobal Ancheta.

Ironically, Jurolan’s wife vigorously campaigned for Flores in 2001 against three-term congressman Reginaldo Tilanduca. This made his partymates frown, but observers surmised it was his subtle way of showing displeasure over the miscarriage of his political plan.

Jurolan’s running mate is Councilor George Damasco, a lumad. He could give fellow Councilor Ignacio Zubiri, a nephew of the governor who is Flores’ running mate, some goose bumps in that his clan is popular in Malaybalay. Valencia, meanwhile, is a flashpoint. City Mayor Jose Galario Jr. (Lakas) will test his mettle against Vice Mayor Leandro Jose Catarata. The two have been exchanging tirades since Day One.

Galario, a retired police colonel, made history by defeating former governor Carlos Fortich and former Provincial Board member Almer Alfonso in 2001. But it will be a different situation this time. Catarata’s family is highly respected in Valencia. His father had been mayor there until his murder in 1988. His mother is a former vice mayor who gave way to his son’s candidacy after the latter completed his stint at the Provincial Board.

Galario also has to erase the perception that he has dictatorial tendencies as shown by his controversial order closing down a local radio station belonging to the University of Mindanao Broadcasting Network for airing commentaries critical of his administration. The issue would surely be resurrected especially since one of Catarata’s candidates for councilor is Arlene Ayon, the broadcaster whom UMBN sacked to appease the mayor.

Another thing going against Galario is that Bayan Muna, which supported him in 2001, has told MindaNews it would campaign for Catarata. The partylist group also voted for the vice mayor in 2001.

Bayan Muna’s vote might prove crucial in a tight race between the two protagonists. In the previous local elections, the group got 7,000 votes in Valencia. Galario won by a margin of 4,000 votes.

Meanwhile, the congressional race for the second district, which includes Malaybalay and Valencia, also promises to be interesting. It’s a four-cornered fight among reelectionist Berthobal Ancheta (Lakas), former governor Nemesio Beltran (KNP), Reginaldo Tilanduca (NPC) and Teofisto Guingona III (LDP), son of Vice President Teofisto Guingona Jr.

But while Ancheta is the Lakas bet, Zubiri is expected to support Tilanduca, an old, trusted ally. The governor has publicly criticized Ancheta for reportedly failing to implement many development projects. With this setup the congressman has to make sure Valencia stays loyal to him.

Even this, however, is a problem. He has a long-running feud with Galario and Catarata is aligned with Guingona.

On the other hand, Tilanduca faces a tough battle despite Zubiri’s backing. He might get a sizeable portion of Valencia’s vote with Galario’s help. But in Malaybalay the votes would be split between him, Beltran and Guingona. And unknown perhaps to other candidates, Guingona has made many visits to the barangay, giving health and livelihood assistance through a family-funded foundation, small things that matter much to an impoverished electorate.

For sure, Zubiri could not countenance a Guingona victory for the simple reason that he’s a relative of the Fortiches. His mother, Ruthie de Lara, is a sister of Amor de Lara, wife of former governor Fortich. Zubiri had frankly stated that it’s his dream of seeing the Fortiches out of Bukidnon’s political picture.

Indeed, Bukidnon is too small for two mestizos.

(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. H. Marcos C. Mordeno is one of the editors at MindaNews. He used to edit two NGO publications. In 1987, he received the Sen. Jose W. Diokno Award for winning in a national editorial writing contest sponsored by Ang Pahayagang Malaya and the family of the late senator.)