Current projection = Kerry 280, Bush 231, Undecided 27 (updated 10/24/04)
2000 GOP states picked up by Dems = 2 (New Hampshire, Ohio)
2000 Dem states picked up by GOP = 1 (Hawaii)
Deadlocked states = 1 (Florida)
The following is a state-by-state breakdown of current poll results. Where there is no state data, the state's 2000 winner is assumed to win in 2004. In cases where there is a virtual tie, the state goes as "undecided", and electoral votes go to neither candidate.
Although most polls included Ralph Nader, his vote totals are not included in this report.
Click here for the latest national poll results
| State | EC Votes | Bush | Kerry | Difference | Source | Date | Sample | MoE | 2000 results |
| Alabama | 9 | 56 | 32 | Bush +24 | Capital Survey Research | 10/12-10/14 | 546 LV | 4% | GOP +15 |
| Alaska | 3 | 57 | 30 | Bush +27 | American Research Group | 9/9-9/11 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +31 |
| Arizona | 10 | 49 | 44 | Bush +5 | Northern Arizona University | 10/5-10/7 | 599 LV | 4.1% | GOP +6 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 49.7 | 48.4 | Bush +1.3 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 516 LV | 4.3% | GOP +6 |
| California | 55 | 43 | 53 | Kerry +10 | SurveyUSA | 10/15-10/17 | 703 LV | 4% | Dem +12 |
| Colorado | 9 | 52 | 45 | Bush +7 | SurveyUSA | 10/18-10/20 | 597 LV | 4.1% | GOP +9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 39 | 54 | Kerry +15 | American Research Group | 9/12-9/14 | 600 LV | 4% | Dem +17 |
| Delaware | 3 | 41 | 50 | Kerry +9 | American Research Group | 9/13-9/15 | 600 LV | 4% | Dem +7 |
| District of Columbia | 3 | 11 | 78 | Kerry +67 | American Research Group | 9/11-9/13 | 600 LV | 4% | Dem +75 |
| Florida | 27 | 46 | 46 | TIE | Schroth & Associates | 10/19-10/21 | 800 LV | 3.5% | GOP +0.001 |
| Georgia | 15 | 58 | 37 | Bush +21 | Strategic Vision | 10/12-10/14 | 801 RV | 3% | GOP +8 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 46 | 45 | Bush +1 | Star-Bulletin Poll | 10/17-10/20 | 612 RV | 4% | Dem +18 |
| Idaho | 4 | 59 | 30 | Bush +29 | American Research Group | 9/8-9/10 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +41 |
| Illinois | 21 | 42 | 50 | Kerry +8 | Chicago Tribune | 10/16-10/19 | 700 RV | 4% | Dem +8 |
| Indiana | 11 | 58 | 39 | Bush +19 | SurveyUSA | 10/3-10/5 | 589 LV | 4.1% | GOP +16 |
| Iowa | 7 | 47.9 | 51.1 | Kerry +3.2 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 571 LV | 4.1% | Dem +1 |
| Kansas | 6 | 57 | 38 | Bush +19 | SurveyUSA | 10/9-10/11 | 595 LV | 4.1% | GOP +21 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 57 | 38 | Bush +19 | SurveyUSA | 10/4-10/6 | 622 LV | 4% | GOP +16 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 50 | 32 | Bush +18 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | 10/4-10/7 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +8 |
| Maine | 4 | 47 | 49 | Kerry +2 | SurveyUSA | 10/3-10/5 | 400 LV | 5% | Dem +5 |
| Maryland | 10 | 42 | 51 | Kerry +9 | Rasmussen | 9/26-10/8 | 400 LV | 5% | Dem +17 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 27 | 64 | Kerry +37 | American Research Group | 9/7-9/9 | 600 LV | 4% | Dem +27 |
| Michigan | 17 | 46 | 48 | Kerry +2 | Strategic Vision | 10/19-10/21 | 801 LV | 3% | Dem +4 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 43.1 | 54.2 | Kerry +11.1 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 792 LV | 3.5% | Dem +2 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 51 | 42 | Bush +9 | American Research Group | 9/14-9/17 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +15 |
| Missouri | 11 | 50 | 45 | Bush +5 | Rasmussen | 10/7-10/20 | 400 LV | 5% | GOP +4 |
| Montana | 3 | 54 | 36 | Bush +18 | Mason-Dixon | 9/20-9/22 | 625 RV | 4% | GOP +24 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 61 | 30 | Bush +31 | American Research Group | 9/9-9/12 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +30 |
| Nevada | 5 | 49 | 47 | Bush +2 | Reno Gazette-Journal | 10/19-10/21 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 46.0 | 51.1 | Kerry +5.1 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 510 LV | 4.3% | GOP +1 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 41 | 49 | Kerry +8 | Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind | 10/13-10/21 | 503 LV | 5% | Dem +15 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 44.1 | 53.6 | Kerry +9.5 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 526 LV | 4.3% | Dem +0.01 |
| New York | 31 | 35 | 58 | Kerry +23 | SurveyUSA | 10/9-10/11 | 606 LV | 4.1% | Dem +25 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 50 | 47 | Bush +3 | SurveyUSA | 10/15-10/17 | 627 LV | 4% | GOP +13 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 62 | 33 | Bush +29 | American Research Group | 9/7-9/10 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +28 |
| Ohio | 20 | 43 | 49 | Kerry +6 | Scripps-Howard/Ohio University | 10/17-10/21 | 358 LV | 5% | GOP +4 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 50 | 38 | Bush +12 | Wilson Research | 10/8-10/10 | 500 LV | 4% | GOP +22 |
| Oregon | 7 | 45 | 52 | Kerry +7 | Rasmussen | 10/6-10/19 | 500 LV | 4% | Dem +0.4 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 46 | 48 | Kerry +2 | Muhlenberg College | 10/17-10/22 | 787 RV | 3.5% | Dem +4 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 36 | 56 | Kerry +20 | SurveyUSA | 10/9-10/11 | 603 LV | 4.1% | Dem +29 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 55 | 42 | Bush +13 | SurveyUSA | 10/10-10/12 | 563 LV | 4.2% | GOP +16 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 58 | 39 | Bush +19 | American Research Group | 9/8-9/12 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +22 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 54 | 37 | Bush +17 | University of Tennessee | 10/7-10/20 | 656 RV | 4% | GOP +3 |
| Texas | 34 | 60 | 37 | Bush +23 | SurveyUSA | 10/9-10/11 | 598 LV | 4.1% | GOP +21 |
| Utah | 5 | 64 | 27 | Bush +37 | American Research Group | 9/10-9/13 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +41 |
| Vermont | 3 | 40 | 53 | Kerry +13 | Research2000 | 10/6-10/12 | 600 LV | 4% | Dem +10 |
| Virginia | 13 | 50 | 44 | Bush +6 | Rasmussen | 9/14-9/27 | 400 LV | 5% | GOP +7 |
| Washington | 11 | 43.9 | 54.3 | Kerry +10.4 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 1440 LV | 2.6% | Dem +5 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 48.6 | 45.8 | Bush +2.8 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 501 LV | 4.4% | GOP +6 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 47.5 | 51.3 | Kerry +3.8 | Zogby Interactive | 10/13-10/18 | 883 LV | 3.3% | Dem +0.3 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 65 | 29 | Bush +36 | American Research Group | 9/9-9/11 | 600 LV | 4% | GOP +41 |