Or how about this scene from the Simpsons:
"Not a bear in site. The bear patrol must be working like a charm."
"That's pretty specious reasoning Dad."
"Hmm?"
"By your reasoning I could say that this rock keeps tigers away."
"In-ter-es-ting. How does it work?"
"It doesn't work, it's just a stupid rock. But I don't see any tigers around here do you?
"Lisa I wish to purchase your rock."
The quotes are a little off, but that's basically it. Now why do people use reasoning like this? Most people know that The chances of becoming a millionaire are about one trillion to one. They know that ordinary rocks don't have tiger repellent in them. The fact is that these people think that they are using logic when they are really just being morons. Why do they think it's logic? When you say it, it sounds right.
If you took a spinner, and on one half put the option "Become a millionaire" and on the other half put "Don't", then the spinner does have a 50-50 chance of landing on "Become a millionaire." These people think:
"Okay I have two options: become rich or don't. 100% divided into both options leaves 50% therefore I have a one in two chance of winning it big."
They don't realize that their options do not weigh equally.
Now as for the scene between Homer and Lisa:
"We had a bear enter our town, so we have a bear patrol now. Their aren't any bears anymore so the bear patrol is obviously working."
People who use this kind of reasoning aren't thinking of how many times a bear has come into their town. If loose bears was a common thing then yes this reasoning could be used, but not with a one time event.
This essay doesn't really have a point, just a warning. DO NOT ARGUE WITH THESE PEOPLE. YOU WILL NOT WIN EVEN IF YOU'RE RIGHT.