“Anticipating
the Good the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and
Instability Analysis”
Codebook
Prepared by
Dr. Sean P. O’Brien
Center for
Army Analysis
3 June, 2002
This document describes the data used in “Anticipating the Good
the Bad and the Ugly….” and
contained in a the Excel Spreadsheet (GoodBadData75-2015.xls)
available for download at this site. Most of the variables described below
were used as independent variables in the above titled article.
The sources from which these data were obtained, along with the
time period covering their actual observations, are reported for each.
Users will note that many of the variables were forecast, using
Holt’s Two Parameter double exponential smoothing method (unless
otherwise forecast by the sources from which they were obtained).
Therefore, users who wish to use only the observed values
independent of their forecast values, are encouraged to pay special
attention to the time periods covering these actual values, as those time
periods vary somewhat across variables.
Missing values are denoted by “na.”
Users of the data are requested to notify the
author of any errors or anomalies they find in the data.
The following variables are included in the
spreadsheet titled GoodBadData75-2015.xls:
Country: Self-explanatory. Data set includes 171 countries with populations greater than
500,000.
Year: Self-explanatory. Year of actual
or forecast observation. Ranges
from 1975-2015.
MaxKOSIMOLevel: Maximum level of
intensity of national/international conflict experienced by a country in
the year indicated. 4=war, 3=violent crisis, 2=crisis, 1=none.
Source: Kosimo Data Project; (Pfetsch and Rohloff, 2000).
Observed data covers period 1975-99.
Calories: Estimate of the average number
of calories consumed per person, per day.
Source: Food and
Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (http://apps.fao.org).
Observed data covers period 1975-97; data forecast from 1998-2015.
IMR: Infant Mortality Rate. Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000
live births. Source:
U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database (www.censu/gov/ipc/www).
Observed data covers period 1975-97; data forecast (by the Census
Bureau) from 1998-2015.
LifeExpectancy: Average life expectancy
(males and females combined). Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
International Database (www.census/gov/ipc/www).
Observed data covers period 1975-97; data forecast (by the Census Bureau)
from 1998-2015.
Youth Bulge:
Ratio of population aged 15-29 to those aged 30-54. Source: U.S.
Bureau of the Census, International Database (www.census/gov/ipc/www).
Source: Observed data covers period 1975-97; data forecast (by the Census
Bureau) from 1998-2015.
PolRights Measure of the rights of a
country’s people to participate meaningfully in the political process. Seven-point ordinal scale with 1=free, 7=not free. Source: Freedom
House (www.freedomhouse.org).
Observed data covers period 1975-2000; data forecast from 2001-15.
CivilLiberties: Measure of the freedom
of a country’s people “to develop views, institutions, and personal
autonomy apart from the state.” Seven-point
ordinal scale with 1=free, 7=not free. Source: Freedom House (www.freedomhouse.org).
Observed data covers period 1975-2000; data forecast from 2001-15.
GDP98: Annual gross domestic product per
person measured in constant 1998 U.S. dollars. Source: World Bank (2001), World
Bank 2001 Development Indicators.
Observed data covers period 1975-99; data forecast
from 2000-15.
BigReligion:
Largest religious group in the country as a % of total
population. Sources: CIA World Fact book; Country Indicators of
Foreign Policy (CIFP) project; Ellingsen (1996); Handbook of the
Nations; Britannica Book of the Year; Demographic Yearbook. Observed data covers period 1975-99; forecast data from
2000-15.
Big Ethnic:
Largest ethnic group in the country as a % of total population.
Sources: CIA World Fact book; Country Indicators of Foreign
Policy (CIFP) project; Ellingsen (1996); Handbook of the Nations;
Britannica Book of the Year; Demographic Yearbook. Observed
data covers period 1975-99; forecast data from 2000-15.
Democracy: Measure of the degree of democracy.
Ranges from –10 (least democratic) to 10 (most democratic). Source: Polity
IV project, Marshall and Jaggers (2000). Observed data covers period
1975-99; forecast data from 2000-15.
Openness: Openness to international
trade. Ratio of the value of a country’s total imports and exports to
its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Source: World Bank (2001).
2001 World Bank Development Indicators.
% Hist (75-99): Percent of time (in
years) that a state has spent between 1975 and 1999 in a state of conflict
(includes MAXKOSIM categories 2, 3, and 4).
Source: Kosimo Data Project; Pfetsch and Rohloff (2000).
% Hist (75-94): Percent of time (in
years) that a state has spent between 1975 and 1994 in a state of conflict
(includes MaxKOSIMOLevel categories 2, 3, and 4).
Source: Kosimo Data Project; Pfetsch and Rohloff (2000).
% Hist (75-89): Percent of time (in
years) that a state has spent between 1975 and 1989 in a state of conflict
(includes MaxKOSIMOLevel categories 2, 3, and 4).
Source: Kosimo Data Project; Pfetsch and Rohloff (2000).
% Hist (75-84): Percent of time (in
years) that a state has spent between 1975 and 1984 in a state of conflict
(includes MaxKOSIMOLevel categories 2, 3, and 4).
Source: Kosimo Data Project; Pfetsch and Rohloff (2000).