Table 10

Number of Countries by Expected Intensity Level of Instability         _____________________________________________________________________________________________

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                                                                                     Year

Expected Intensity Level                     2005                2010                2015

            High (Ugly)                               23                    19                    11

            Moderate (Bad)                       35                    37                    33

            None/Low (Good)                   85                    87                    95

            Uncertain                                 15                    16                    19

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Note: For purposes of comparison, 15 countries experienced a war (ugly), 25 experienced a violent crisis (bad), and 20 participated in a mostly non-violent crisis (good) in 1999.