Table 6

Possibility Scores and Forecast: Colombia, 1992

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Variable                                  Obs. Value       Pos (None)      Pos (Crisis)      Pos (Violent Crisis)       Pos (war)        

Calories                                   2443                            1                      .74                   .53                   .8

Infant mortality                         33                                .71                   1                      .51                   .19

Political rights                           2                                  .73                   1                      .61                   .38

GDP per capita                        2536.62                       .82                   .78                   .80                   1

Civil liberties                           4                                  1                      .93                   .95                   .50

Life expectancy                       68                                .76                   1                      .59                   .27

Youth bulge                             1.12                             .75                   1                      .41                   .86

Religious diversity                    95%                             .82                   1                      .92                   .70      

Ethnic diversity                         58%                             1                      .97                   .56                   .43

Democracy                               9                                  1                      .80                   .82                   .14

Trade openness                        .22                               .63                   .89                   .82                   1

% history in state of conflict       70%                             .14                   .78                   .7                     1

 (1975-1984)

Overall likelihood ratio (Frank Rule)                              .11                   .52                   .17                   .03

Overall possibility                                                          .22                   1                      .34                   .06

Overall probability                                                         13%                 62%                 21%                 4%

Predicted Level of instability                  83% likelihood of conflict type 2 or 3  (moderate intensity)

Conflict type that occurred                    Violent crisis (Type 3)

Accuracy of forecast                             Correct forecast

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