Table 7

 Possibility Scores and Forecast: Kyrgyzstan, 1994

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Variable                                  Obs. Value       Pos (None)      Pos (Crisis)     Pos (Violent Crisis)     Pos (war)       

Calories                                                2322                .84                   .74                   .53                   .8

Infant mortality                                      67                    .48                   1                      .51                   .19

Political rights                                       4                      .50                   1                      .61                   .38

GDP per capita                                    905.88            .82                   .78                   .80                   1

Civil liberties                                         3                      .68                   .93                   .95                   .50

Life expectancy                                    65                    .65                   1                      .59                   .27

Youth bulge                                          1.05                 .48                   1                      .41                   .86

Religious diversity                                 97%                 1                      1                      .92                   .70      

Ethnic diversity                                     52%                 .45                   .97                   .56                   .43

Democracy                                           5                      .34                   .80                   .82                   .14

Trade openness                                    .83                   .88                   .89                   .82                   1

% history in state of conflict                   missing             1                      1                      1                      1

(1975-1984)

Overall likelihood ratio  (Frank Rule)                             .13                   .02                   .03                   .14

Overall possibility                                                         .94                   .14                   .22                   1

Overall probability                                                        41%                 6%                  9%                   44%

Predicted Ll of instabiity                       Predicted Level of Instability                 uncertain (no aggregation combination >67% probability)

Conflict type that occurred                    None (Type 1)

Accuracy of forecast                             Neither correct nor incorrect

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