Table 8

Average Performance Metrics: Restricted FASE vs. Multinomial Logit Model

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                                                                                   Forecast Period

Training Period                       1985-1989                   1990-1994                   1995-1999

                                                FASE   Logit                FASE   Logit                FASE   Logit

1975-1984 (10 yrs.)                 87%     91%                 75%     75%                 76%     73%

                                                (83%)  (77%)              (64%)  (60%)              (69%)  (62%)

                                                [78%]  [94%]              [63%]  [62%]              [52%]  [47%]

1975-1989 (15 yrs.)                                                     75%     79%                 74%     76%

                                                                                    (68%)  (66%)              (69%)  (68%)

                                                                                    [62%]  [66%]              [53%]  [49%]

1975-1994 (20 years)                                                                                      81%     81%

                                                                                                                        (89%)  (80%)

                                                                                                                        [63%]  [57%]

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                                                Restricted FASE          Multinomial Logit

Average overall accuracy:         78%                                         79%

Average recall:                          73%                                         69%

Average precision:                    62%                                         62%

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Note: Overall accuracy, Recall (in parentheses), and Precision scores [in brackets] are calculated separately for each 5-year forecast period.