Table 9

Classification Tables: 1975-1994 Training Set (1995-1999 Test Set)

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 FASE Model

                                                                        Observed Conflict Type

 Predicted Intensity Level                    4          3          2          1          Total

            High (3 or 4)                           37        64        [32]      [22]      155

            Moderate (2 or 3)                    8*        29        36        [47]      120

            None/Low (1 or 2)                   5*        14*      15        361      395     

            Uncertain                               -24       -26       -12       -63       -125

                        Total                            50        107      83        430      670

                        Accuracy          81%

                                    Recall               89%

                                    Precision          63%                

 Multinomial Logit Model

                                                                         Observed Conflict Type

 Predicted Intensity Level                    4          3          2          1          Total

            High (3 or 4)                           34        57        [43]      [41]      175

            Moderate (2 or 3)                   0*        15        5          [0]        120

            None/Low (1 or 2)                  15*      35*      41        414      505     

            Uncertain                              -9         -17       -4         -14       -44

                        Total                            49        107      89        455      700

                                    Accuracy          81%

                                    Recall               80%

                                    Precision            57%

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 Note: Cells show actual vs. predicted conflict/instability levels.  Cells with * denote the number of country-year misses; cells in [ ] indicate the number of country-year false positives.  We forecast high intensity levels of instability if the combined probability of a war (type 4) or violent crisis (type 3) is greater than 67%; a moderate intensity level of instability if the combined probability of a crisis (type 2) or violent crisis (type 3) is greater than 67%; and a none/low intensity level of instability if the combined probability of a crisis (type 2) or no event (type 1) is greater than 67%.  Uncertain predictions are considered neither correct nor incorrect and are, therefore, excluded from the performance metric calculations.  The N is smaller for the logit model due to the listwise deletion of missing values.