Sean P. O’Brien

Sean.p.obrien@us.army.mil

703-806-5361 (w)

 

EDUCATION

BA (August 1992)

International Relations

University of Wisconsin, Madison

 

MA (August 1994)

Political Science

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

 

PhD (August 1998)

Political Science

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

 

EXPERIENCE

 

Senior Operations Research Analyst (GS 14) October 1999 – present

Department of the Army

Center for Army Analysis

Fort Belvoir, Virginia

 

  • Project Investigator and lead analyst on studies to develop analytic capabilities to identify, monitor, assess, and forecast evolving national and international crises.
  • Study sponsors are generally Senior Executives and General Officers in the Army War Plans and Intelligence communities; users and consumers of analytical products come from across the National and International security communities.
  • Provide subject matter expertise to members of Congress and Senior Policymakers (military and civilian)
  • Manage several defense contracts; collect, assimilate, analyze, and assess data from multiple sources on events unfolding across the world.
  • Develop, test, and evaluate analytical models to assess the accuracy and validity of forecasts of wars, terrorism, coups, crises, and other forms of violent social instability.
  • Provide real-time analytical support to U.S. forces deployed abroad; present findings at professional conferences; publish articles in professional and academic journals; teach courses on national security analysis.
  • Establish and maintain good working relationships with other branches of government, particularly those agencies among which our work is controversial.
  • Serve as member of international delegations and exchanges upon request of other U.S. government agencies.
  • Recruit, train, mentor, and supervise junior analysts and Presidential management Fellows (PMFs)

 

Operations Research Analyst             August 1998 – October 1999

Defense Logistics Agency

Office of Operations Research and Resource Analysis

Richmond, Virginia

  • Conduct research and provide analytical support to DLA headquarters commands on matters relating to peacetime readiness, contingency operations, and wartime preparedness. 
  • Brief senior military and civilian leadership on behalf of client agencies as requested

 

ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS

 

Instructor                                              Spring 1997

Senior Seminar—“Integration and Disintegration in post Cold War Politics”

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee/University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

Doctoral Dissertation Fellow             August 1997 – June 1998

The Graduate School

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

 

Graduate Teaching Assistant                  August 1994 – August 1997

Department of Political Science

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

  • Introduction to Politics
  • Introduction to International Relations
  • Statistics

 

ACHIEVEMENTS AND AWARDS

 

  • Nominee, Richard H. Barchi Prize, for best paper presented at the 72nd Military Operations Research Symposium (MORSS), Monterey, CA, June 2004.

 

  • Nominee, Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award for Excellence in Analysis-Small Group Award, Department of the U.S. Army, as Study Director for Near-term Forecasts of Crisis and Instability Using Text-based Events (NEAR-TERM FORECITE), July 2004.

 

  • Recipient, Richard H. Barchi Prize, for best paper presented at the 70th Military Operations Research Symposium (MORSS), Fort Leavenworth, KS, June 2002.

 

  • Nominee, Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award for Excellence in Analysis-Group Award, Department of the U.S. Army, as Study Director for Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR) July, 2002.

 

  • Co-recipient, Dr. Wilbur B. Payne Memorial Award for Excellence in Analysis-Group Award, Department of the U.S. Army, for contribution to Enabling Strategic Responsiveness Study, October, 2001.

 

  • Recipient, Analyst of the Year (2000), Department of the U.S. Army, Center for Army Analysis, April 2001.
  • Distinguished Graduate (1st in class of 20), Army Logistics Management College, December 1998

 

  • Recipient, Award for Academic Excellence, Association of the United States Army, December 1998

 

  • Recipient, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center Award for Academic Excellence, December 1998

 

  • Recipient, Dissertation Fellowship, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, 1997-1998

 

  • Dean’s List, University of Wisconsin, Madison

 

PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Military Operations Research Society (MORS)

American Political Science Association (APSA)

 

 

 

PUBLICATIONS, GUEST LECTURES, AND

CONFERENCE PAPER PRESENTATIONS

 

Refereed Journal Articles

 O’Brien, Sean P. 2002. “Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis.  Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(6): 808-828.

 

O’Brien, Sean P. and Donald P. Haider-Markel. 1998. “Fueling the Fire: Social and Political Correlates of Citizens Militia Activity.” Social Science Quarterly 79(2): 456-464.

 

Haider-Markel, Donald P. and Sean P. O’Brien. 1997. “Creating a Well-Regulated Militia: Policy Responses to Paramilitary Groups in the American States.” Political Research Quarterly 50(3) 551-565.

 

O’Brien, Sean P. 1996.  “Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism: A Time-Series Analysis of Conflict Linkages.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2): 320-335.

 

Book Chapters

 

Haider-Markel, Donald P. and Sean P. O’Brien. 1998. “Values in Conflict: Local Government Response to Hate Crime.” In (ed.) Elaine B. Sharp Culture War and Local Politics. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas.

 

Invited Papers/Guest Lectures

 

" Center for Army Analysis' Forecasting Capabilities." Lecture delivered at Harvard University, March 14, 2005.

“Applying Contemporary International Relations to National Security Issues: Forecasting Conflict and Instability.”  Presentation delivered to the Department of Political Science, University of Kansas, May 2004.

“Near-term Forecasts of Crisis and Instability Using Text-Based Events (NEAR-TERM FORECITE).”  Fifth Nuclear Stability Roundtable, co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, U.S. STRATCOM, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, April, 2003.

“Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Civilian Pawns:  Implications for Democracy in the 21st Century.”  Lecture delivered at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, January 2002.

 “Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis, 1975-2015.” Paper presented to the Research and Analysis Forum (RAF), U.S. Department of State, Verification and Compliance Bureau, December 2001

“Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness.”  Presented to:

·        Conference on U.S.-Russian Confidence Building Measures, co-sponsored by Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Naval Postgraduate School, Garmisch, Germany, June 2-5, 2003.

·        Fourth Nuclear Stability Roundtable, co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, U.S. STRATCOM, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, March 12-13, 2002.

·        National Intelligence Council (NIC), Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), October, 2001.

·        the Regional Analysis Tools Conference, sponsored by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Charlottesville, VA, June 2001.

·        the Instability Predictive Modeling Advanced Concept Technical Demonstration (ACTD) Workshop, co-sponsored by USCINCPAC, J006, J08, and the Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, Honolulu, HI, 22-24 May 2001.

·        the seminar on Predicting Intentions: Preventing Operational and Strategic Surprise. Co-sponsored by Mr. Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the Commander in Chief, U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), Quantico, Virginia, 6-8 March 2001.

·        the Bilateral Workshop on Analysis Support to Peace Operations. Co-sponsored by Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command (USCINCPAC) and the Australian Department of Defence, Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO), Sydney, Australia, November 14-16, 2000.

 “Terrorism in the 21st Century: Causes, Characteristics, and Controls.”  Lecture delivered to the Senior Science Society at the University of Wisconsin - Fox Valley, March 21, 2000.

“Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Civilian Pawns: A Two-Level Theory and Evidence From Northern Ireland.” Paper presented at the conference on Applying Social Science Research to Contemporary International Problems hosted by the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee/Marquette University Center for International Studies, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (August 1997).

Professional Conference Presentations

 

“A Rogue’s Gallery Beyond Redemption? A Comparative Analytical Assessment of Rogue States and Prospects for Change in the Future.”  Paper presented (with Doug Bond) at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, Canada, March 2004.

 

“Hidden Markov Modeling of Conflict Processes using Events Data.” Paper presented (with Doug Bond, Joe Bond, and Vladimir Petrof) at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, Canada, March 2004.

 

“Near-term Forecasts of Crisis and Instability Using Text-Based Events (NEAR-TERM FORECITE).” Paper prepared for presentation at the 71st Military Operations Research Society Symposium (MORSS), Quantico, VA, June 2003.

 

“Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness: A Methodology for Forecasting Conflict and Instability.” Paper presented at the 70th Military Operations Research Society Symposium (MORSS), Fort Leavenworth, KS, June 2002.  Recipient of  the Richard H. Barchi Prize for Best Paper.

 

“ForMIDable Challenge: Analyzing and Forecasting Bilateral Militarized Interstate Disputes.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 2002.

 

“Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis, 1975-2015.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 2001.

“Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR).”  Paper presented to the 21st International Symposium on Forecasting, Callaway Gardens, Pine Mountain, Georgia, USA June 17-20, 2001.

 

“Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR).”  Paper presented to the 69th Military Operations Research Society Symposium (MORSS), U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland, 12-14 June 2001.

 

 “Analyzing and Forecasting Conflict and Instability.”  Paper presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL (April 2001).

 

“Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR).”  Paper presented to the Army Operations Research Symposium (AORS), Fort Lee, Virginia (October 2000).

 

“Shooting to the Right: Explaining Militia Activity in the American States.” Paper presented at the 1997 annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL (April 1997).

 

“To Concede or Not to Concede: A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Terrorist Countermeasures.”  Paper presented at the 1996 annual meeting of the International Studies Association-Midwest, St. Louis, MO (October 1996).

 

“An ‘Unregulated Militia’ in the Twentieth Century: Accounting for Variations in Levels of Activity.” Paper presented with Donald P. Haider-Markel at the annual meeting of the Wisconsin Political Science Association, De Pere, WI (October 1996).

 

“Creating a Well-Regulated Militia: Policy Responses to Paramilitary Groups in the United States.” Paper presented with Donald P. Haider-Markel at the annual meeting of the Wisconsin Political Science Association, De Pere, WI (October 1996).

 

“The Public-Terrorist Frustration Threshold: Toward the Efficient Resolution of Protracted Terrorists Conflicts.” Paper presented at the 1996 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA (August 1996).