I will have to admit that I am a total weather nerd. I started this page so that I could see how the hurricane season is progressing. Dr Gray is part of a team meteorologists and statisticians at Colorado State that are using Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Western Sahel rainfall during the prior year, the late fall Azores high surface pressure, Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly patterns and strength of the Azores anticyclone through May; to predict seasonal hurricane activity. This year he predicted a very active season and now that it is rolling fairly well I wanted a way to see how close the season is to the prediction. I am in no way connected to CSU or their research project.
| Dr. Gray | Arlene | Brett | Cindy | Dennis | Emilly | Floyd | Gert | Harvey | Irene | Jose | Katrina | Lenny | |
| (Average Number) | active | ||||||||||||
| Named Storm Days (NSD) (46.9) | 75 | 4.63 | 4 | 10.75 | 11.5 | 2.25 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 2.00 | 5.5 | 6.5 | .13 | 6.33 |
| Hurricane Days (HD)(23.7) | 40 | 0 | 2.33 | 5.5 | 5.75 | 0 | 6.25 | 9.50 | 0 | 4.75 | 2.13 | 0 | 4.75 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(4.7) | 10 | 0 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 | 3.50 | 6.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.13 |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.3) | 14 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
| Hurricanes (H)(5.8) | 9 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | ||||
| Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.2) | 4 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Average Totals | Totals this Year | Percent of Average Season | Percent of Predicted | |
| NSD 99 | 46.9 | 74.08 | 157.96% | 98.78% |
| HD | 23.7 | 40.96 | 172.82% | 102.40% |
| IHD | 4.7 | 14.17 | 301.42% | 141.67% |
| NS | 9.3 | 12 | 129.03% | 85.71% |
| H | 5.8 | 8 | 137.93% | 88.89% |
| IH | 2.2 | 5 | .227.27% | 125.00% |
I am not counting the days the same way that Doctor Gray does. According to his team's definition page a day is 4 consecutive 6 hour periods. I have been going by the advisories and the time they were issued. So for example if I got an advisory 9/8/09z that Floyd had become a Tropical Storm and It was still going when I got an advisory on 9/12/21z, I subtracted 12 21/24 - 8 9/ 24 = 4 1/2. I did not count the middle advisories on Emily when it went below Tropical storm speed and then came back. Below are the times and dates for which I have Advisories. The parenthetical alpha numeric is the advisory number.
| Arlene | Brett | Cindy | Dennis | Emilly | Floyd | Gert | Harvey | Irene | Jose | Katrina | Lenny | |
| Storm Start | 6/12/99 15:00 (4) | 8/19/99 21:00 (5) | 8/20/99 21:00 (8) | 8/24/99 18:00 (3A) | 8/24/99 21:00 (1) | 9/8/99 9:00 (3) | 9/12/99 15:00 (5) | 9/20/99 3:00 (4) | 10/13/99 15:00 (1) | 10/18/99 9:00 (3) | 10/29/99 21:00(5) | 11/14/99 19:00(5) |
| Storm Stop | 6/17/99 6:00 (23 A) | 8/23/99 21:00 (21) | 8/31/99 15:00 (51) | 9/5/99 6:00 (49A) | 8/26/99 15:00 (8) | 9/17/99 9:00 (39) | 9/23/99 15:00 (49) | 9/22/99 3:00 (12) | 10/19/99 3:00 (24) | 10/24/99 21:00 (29) | 10/30/99 0:00(5A) | 11/21/99 3:00(31) |
| 2nd Storm Start | 8/27/99 21:00 (13) | |||||||||||
| 2nd Storm Stop | 8/28/99 9:00 (15) | |||||||||||
| Hurricane Start | 8/21/99 3:00 (10) | 8/22/99 3:00 (13) | 8/26/99 6:00 (9A) | 9/10/99 12:00 (11A) | 9/13/99 15:00 (9) | 10/14/99 9:00 (4) | 10/19/99 15:00 (8) | 11/15/99 0:00 (6A) | ||||
| Hurricane Stop | 8/23/99 11:00(19A) | 8/22/99 15:00 (15) | 9/1/99 0:00 (32A) | 9/16/99 18:00(36A) | 9/23/99 3:00 (47) | 10/19/99 3:00 (24) | 10/21/99 12:00 (15A) | 11/19/99 18:00(25A) | ||||
| 2nd Hurricane Start | 8/26/99 3:00 (29) | 10/24/99 15:00 (28) | ||||||||||
| 2nd Hurricane Stop | 8/31/99 3:00 (49) | 10/24/99 15:00 (29) | ||||||||||
| Intense Hurricane Start | 8/21/99 23:00 (13A) | 8/28/99 3:00 (37) | 9/12/99 15:00 (20) | 9/15/99 21:00 (14) | 11/16/99 21:00 (14) | |||||||
| Intense Hurricane Stop | 8/23/99 3:00(18) | 8/29/99 9:00 (42) | 9/15/99 3:00 (34) | 9/21/99 0:00 (38A) | 11/19/99 0:00 (22A) |
Last Updated on 11/21/99 07:08:15 AM
By Charley Atchley
Email: Charley@lcc.net
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