Regular Observations

14th December, 2006: I am currently invested in a number of penny shares. I reckon my strategy should be to invest in penny shares in their five waves to 1 pound.

Share 1, Ultrasis: at the moment, this share is consolidating and forming a bottom near 1.4 pence. Once it overcomes 1.6 pence, it should start its first wave. My strategy for this one is to stay in until near 2 pence.

Share 2, Education International Development: this one has given me a return of more than 50% already, shame I cashed in a bit too early at 20 pence. Having consolidated near 10 pence for a long time, it has started its first wave upwards, at the moment it is 22 pence. I am waiting for a pull back to get back in asap, as this one is definitely going to shoot again soon. This is more assured stock to move towards 1 pound in the not too distant future. But I am out at the moment, which makes it a bit nailbiting.

Share 3, Betex: This one is trying to bottom near 35 pence at the moment. Unless it overcomes 50 pence, it may just try to shape a bottom between 35 pence to 45 pence. I intend to play the range at the moment. The first wave has not started yet.

These are the three best shares that I am watching closely at the moment. For a short-term bet, Partygaming is the best candidate. This one is a momentum share, so its movement will be rapid, subject to two way pulls from both bears and bulls. If you are interested in investing for the long term, Vietnam is the country of interest, in the form of VOF, an investment trust share. Good luck.

13th December, 2006: Yes, I am back to invest in shares from now on. I guess I have had enough in the forex game which does not suit me at all. I came out with about 8k dollars in profit, which is really lucky, as at one time I was losing my house.

I am still concentrating on penny shares, which are less than 100 pence per share. At the moment, I am watching and having some involvements in the following shares: Education International Development, BETEX, Partygaming, Ultrasis, Surgical Innovation, and so on. To date, I have probably made some 2000 pounds in profit in my share investment from around 16k investment. More to follow.

30th July, 2005: I think the biggest challenge in this investment game is knowing when to stop, when to do little and when to be stubborn and do it more. I don't think I have built up a sufficent rhythm so far. I guess this applies to everything we do in life. Can you stop when you need to? Can you be brave enough to give your all when the real opportunity is there? It is a challenge for us all. I topped up CYC holding on recent weakness.

26th July, 2005: Have I missed something? But the ones I bought have not gone up at all, actually they have all fallen a bit. Well, have to wait in patience. This market is subject to some madness one way or another. With the four bombers still at large, it does feel like having a dagger over our heads these days.

5th July, 2005: The stock market is showing some renewed signs of life lately because of the prospect of interest rate cuts in the months ahead of us. Yes, it is not going to happen just yet. So the stock market may just rally to 6,000 and come back down again, once the interest rate does come down. Why? Because that would be when we are staring at a recession in the face. I have added a few more shares to my exotic share portfolio and that is that and we will see how it goes. Good luck.

20th June, 2005: Finally, I decided to take the plunge into this China investment theme, as I don't see any other themes (TMTs or Japan or other exotic) to have more potential. I have divided my funds into two lots. Bought my first lot recently and will add more if there is further weakness. If it goes up, then I am holding tight. Target is to double my money within the next 2 years. These are the ones that I can get hold of at the moment:

London Asia Capital;

Cyc Holdings;

Caledon Resources;

China Wonder;

Fleming Chinese Fund;

Guangdong Development Fund.

Blue Star Capital;

Educational International Development;

Indian Outsourcing Services.

I am mostly hopeful for the first two, as they are basically Chinese incubators. Obviously, this is a high risk investment theme, but that suits me just fine. DYOR and make your own decisions.

10th June, 2005:The interest rates may have peaked in the UK, so they said recently. If that is the case, it is bullish for the stock market, as long as the property market does not crash dramatically. I am buying shares again. I am continuing my China theme to invest in China-related stocks, such as Cyc Holdings and London Asia Capital (my most favourite stock ever.). With the Olympics coming in 2008, the China story has yet to unfold. So there is still plenty of time to jump on the band wagon and profit from a run for the next few years.

3rd May, 2005: It is going to be a bear market, in my humble opinion, though I am becoming more interested in TMTs again. On the other front, I will cash in any shares which come into profitability. I may start buying some TMT shares this year.

23rd April, 2005:The stock market is full of tension and it is just too dangerous a place to get involved in at the moment. Best avoid it at all costs. And if you can, get your money out of the stock market if you can sell at a profit. Maybe, the second half of the year will present a more stable and profitable market at lower price levels. Good luck. Ps I was lucky to get out of Eidos at breakeven. That was pure good luck.

14th March, 2005: Disastrous buy in Eidos, now doomed for a substantial loss. Well, you win some and you lose some. I am hoping Ultrasis can do some magic this year.

7th March, 2005: With the threat of mortgate arrears rising and second home owners hurting to the limit, the first thing they will put up as their defence will be to dip into any liquid assets such as shares to try to hold onto their properties as long as possible. So I guess there is little possibility for the stock market to rally much further from here. A big correction may be coming soon. Good luck.

25th February, 2005: Not into buying shares these days. The market will drop back to at least 4600 for FTSE100. I have been withdrawing from the stock market, whenever I find a profitable one in my portfolio. It is not that interesting anyway at the moment.

30th January, 2005: It is better to stay out of this market until it drops to 4000 for FTSE100 index. But if you can't wait, you have an uphill struggle, well, it is a challenge, but still if you can, you may be able to win by sailing into the wind, ha. Good luck.

22nd January, 2005:Bought Eidos again at 69 pence. I think the story is there, but my entry level was wrong, so I just averaged it down to 77 pence per share. Fingers crossed. I am also hoping to see some movement in either Thus or Colt telecom in the coming weeks. Good luck.

7th January, 2005: Bought my first and only share in 2005 in Eidos at 85 pence. See how this one goes, as the risk and return ratio seems to be reasonable, at least to me. Good luck.

2nd January, 2005: Happy New Year. It is going to the Green Wooden Chicken Year in 2005 according to the Chinese calendar. So it says, the fortunes will be more or less the same as that of 2004, just a bit more sharper, as it is a year without the element of water to balance our fortunes (meaning, disasters could be more disastrous, as we already witnessed in the Tsunamis). So be careful as money could come and go quite easily. For those who want to invest in the stock market, I reckon you could buy Vodafone and MMO2 when there is a market meltdown (e.g., FTSE100 nearing 4000). Otherwise, it is better to stick to blue chips with high yields. I reckon 2005 would end at 5000 for FTSE100, either by dropping down from 6000 or recovering from 4,000. Good luck.

I would like to write something on share investment for beginners, based on my limited 9 years' experience in the UK Stock Market. The urge to write down some of the lessons that I have picked up comes from an interest from a friend who recently decided to get involved in the stock market.

16th April, 2004: Cashed in another few shares. Now my portfolio of shares is really slim to bare bones. That is what I want for the moment. This market is neither expensive in historical terms nor cheap, in my own valuation. Still, I am looking at the penny shares again. Maybe, we can identify some value there. When the broad market is in a hippo mode, one must look at penny shares for extra returns. These do carry extra risks. Over the years, I have met a few who have gone belly up. Well, risk comes with return, so be warned.

10th April, 2004: I was looking at my virtual portfolios and was reminded that some of the TMTs are getting rather cheap, in relative terms. For 2004, international diversification should really have been the key to your investment success. Japanese market has done really well and this is just the beginning. The Russian market is doing well too. At the same time, the markets in the West have generally gone through a hippo mode, with little gains to date. The much hyped Chinese market may not be the only hot spot this year. You can invest in such funds and reap your rewards this way.

3rd April, 2004:It is time to remember the dead and think of the resurrection, out of love. People tend to live longer than their natural life, in the hearts of those who love them and whom would probably have been loved by the deceased. I miss my grandpa very much, as he loved me so much and it was from his love that I learnt the meaning of this essential word for all human beings. Without love, the world is simply not worthy of living really. To love and to be loved back is one way and to love and not to expect to be loved back is the ultimate love of all. This tends to happen between generations, more than often.

Anyway, sentimental aside, the financial world moves on. While terrorism hangs heavily in the air permanently with the threat of sudden market crashes, the financial markets actually are more resilient than we would think. Here in the UK, the FTSE level is still quite attractively low in historical terms, having made little progress over the past 6 years or so. With the housing market staring at a major crash in the eyes, I would expect the fortune for the stock market might be turning again for the better, perhaps in the coming one or two years. Still, there won't be any exciting big bull market just yet, as in 1999. So I will be busy hunting in the forex market. Good luck to you all. Love yourself more and love others as you would yourself.

13th March, 2004: Still continue to withdraw funds from the stock market. The fall from the terrorist attack is really a small driver in a falling market. Don't be fooled by the rebounce. This is the warning for things to come. So stay away from the stock market for now, unless you have uncovered some hidden jewels which will boom whatever the market conditions. You have to look hard and long at your choices as these are rare and far between. Short and quick plays can also be the game for you, if you want to play on news, or dramatic falls or something like that which would have enough short-term momentum for profit. Take care.

5th March, 2004: What hectic weeks these past ones have been for me. To be successful in investing, you definitely need plenty of confidence and self-belief, plus guts and some magic/luck. I certainly enjoyed some of it today. I have been withdrawing funds from the stock market as usual. Still, you never know, it might turn out to be the repeat of 1999 yet again, though not a technology-shares based bull market this time round. I just wonder what would be the fads to drive up the next big bull market. It is all in the making in the future. We mere mortals must wait and see.

22nd February, 2004: Very busy with making hard decisions nowadays. I still think there is a major market correction coming in the next few months. When that happens, I would be buying again. At the moment, I have been continuing to reduce my share holdings, which has reached a bare minimum level. At the bottom of the bear market last year, I had almost treble of the current share holding. Now all that is almost gone and together with my appetite for shares.

As for the tips for this year, most have done well. The one really catches my imagination is ADVFN.com. This one could go to 1 pound one day, I reckon. The curious question to ask is whether this one can weather a major market crash like Man Group did in the last few years. Otherwise, I might buy one or two gold investment shares, just for fun. Hold tight onto your cash. By the way, I reckon a property market crash is on the way too. So are you still sitting comfortably in your most hyped and treasured asset, ha?? Time to spend all that highly valued sterling in places like America. Enjoy life and be happy.

1st February, 2004: How time flies or am I getting too old! A month of the new year of 2004 has already gone and I have not really made any real money so far. Maybe, it is Hippo, Hippo, Hippo all the way. Looking at the chart of FTSE100, the neckline is around 4400 and the fall from here could go as far down as 3900. I am sitting on my cash as far as the stock market is concerned at the moment. A 10% correction is not a bad thing, which might actually give this bullish run a bit of a logical breathing space. We can not go on like this forever. So we need to seek a way to find some recharged energy. And there is always the threat of epidemic again this year. Last year's rally from the SARS outbreak may not be repeated this year. However, any market correction always provides you with good buying opportunities. Buy low and sell high, as simple as that.

When we bid farewell to January, let's reflect and see what we have learnt in this past month. Remember, a mega-bull market is always on the card after the 3-year deep blue from the tech bust in 2000. So we are just playing a waiting game for the real big one. Patience is a virtue and it is the one who lasts who will have the last laugh.

29th January, 2004: The market is just trying to find a direction and as I said before, it might be down before it comes up again. I have actually bought two shares yesterday--two of those 'dormant' shares which will only be affected by their own newsflow. I tend to have a mixed bag of shares to benefit from different forces, some following trends, others on pure intuition, and yet others on technical indications.

I think in the game of speculation, the keys to your success are one to diversify and another to reduce the element of prediction as much as possible, despite the fact we all for one time or another like the notion of being God, i.e., being right in our predictions of the future. And from the events yesterday (the Fed announcement on interest rate in America), we must learn to see every trading day as different days and group them and act accordingly. If you go into the market, feeling everyday is more or less the same with no significant differentiations, you must get out and take a deep breath. Otherwise, you won't know what is hitting you when you lose a lot of money because of individual events.

22nd January, 2004: Chinese New Year Day. The Year of the Monkey is finally with us. Celebrated in the bliss of our little family here, which is so much more enjoyable. I think it is better to enjoy the culture while having the freedom of being away from the cultural tangles therein.

I sold two more shares today. I think it is time to take some profits if you have them. A profit is a profit when you have actually sold your shares.

ADVFN has flown today. Maybe the boss has tipped the share himself, ha. Sold Cyc Holding. I have completely lost confidence in this one and have taken it off my list altogether, even though I have always made money out of this share. It is time to kick it into Room 101.

I am watching Morrisons and Shell--both are interesting for completely different reasons. Good luck and be happy, everyone.

21st January, 2004: On the eve of the Chinese New Year (the Year of the Green Monkey), I bought my first share for ages: TBI at 60.5 pence. It has been an uninspiring stock market so far as we try the tops and get beaten back as often. I think I will be doing my knife catching old game again. TBI will be gobbled up one way or another. And it is a hot favourite for the day traders. Buy on weakness and sell into strength is the perfect game for TBI.

I might be buying Eidos on further weakness. I think the games sector is almost as ready as the 3G sector to take off from the mass popularisation of their products.

If you are into multicultural living, you will be celebrating many a holiday all year round. Have a prosperous and happy New Year.

18th January, 2004: Had a good time in a little park in a little town near here. The surprising pleasure came from a little hidden jewel in the park in the form of a museum. Life is like that, never giving up on the little surprises.

I totally agree with Mr Hamilton's article this week. Greed is rampant at the moment in the market. Greed is necessary in this game. But at this level, buying further into this market takes greed of an extreme degree. Obviously, you are your own boss. I would be selling if this bullish trend continues. I will be sitting on my pile of cash, drink my red wine and try to keep cool. Remember, only one person out of perhaps 100 people is a winner. So never be afraid to be different. Good on you, if you can make your own decisions every and each time.

At the same time,it does not hurt to do further research on shares, so that you know which ones to buy and hold for big profits if there is a major market correction in the not too distant future. It never hurts to do more research.

15th January, 2004: Trick or treat, it is a very tricky market. I am definitely not buying at the moment. I have sold three more shares today. I have still got some shares in position at the moment. I will be happy to reduce my holdings in the coming days. Somehow, I do not feel the urge to buy at the moment.

Trafficmaster has really flown. Thus may have major resistance going forward from here. I somehow feel the chart is slanting to level, so there might be a possibility that Thus may go sideways for a while.

14th January, 2004: Now I have stopped selling my shares. Hang on a minute, what is going on here in this market? It is tempting and it feels just like those good old days. Liquidity is the key with so much cash flooding the market, are we witnessing another bull market? I will let my profits run a bit longer now that the market seems to be very strong on the outside. The one that escapes me is Retail Decision. How did that ever happen as I have been watching it since a long way back. Anyway, good luck, everybody. Make your own decisions. It is certainly feasible to run your profits a bit longer. As for whether you would buy at the moment, I leave the decision to yourself.

Thus, I think, has broken through the key resistence line. So buy on any weakness, all the way to the next top, perhaps at 40 pence.

13th January, 2004: Did you see Thus and Eidos fly? Thus is trying to break key resistance line at the moment, which might need another push somehow. Eidos is flying because the small games developers are suffering, which reduces competition in a natural way.

I have again sold another share at a small profit today. Cash is king, don't you just love cash?!

12th January, 2004: Another interesting day in the market. Sold another two of my shares at small profits to increase my cash holding to 60%. I am currently happy with small profits. I was looking at my two portfolios. The sector leader portfolio with Vodafone, Eidos, Trafficmaster and Emblaze have gone up quite a bit recently. The sector younggun portfolio with MMO2, Cybit, SCI and Ofex Holding are having a relatively quiet time, apart from Ofex Holding.

Any way, I hope you are all noticing that there is a fundamental shift towards TMTs again. At the moment, I am not totally convinced by the TMT rally just yet, unless Nasdaq breaches 2,500. Interesting times ahead. Be alert and act on your decisions.

11th January, 2004: Very busy reading up on Livermore's story and his trading secrets. Well, most of his secrets are already shared by millions of us, because he is a very much a human legend. On the other hand, I think his eventual suicide might have something to do with his blood type, which I guess is Type B.

I don't often comment on individual shares. Just a few points to clarify my 'tips' for 2004. Whatever the market condition, there will always be a winner. In a bull market, the winners come in bucket-loads. In a bear or hippo market, the winners are far and between. With recent positive newsflow from Vodafone and Trafficmaster, I think the 3G sector is ready to take off again this year, with more transparent results coming through. I have made up two portfolios, one for sector leaders such as Vodafone and Trafficmaster and one for sector young guns such as MMO2, Thus and Cybit. If the market goes into a tailspin, we can always buy the sector leaders as they will bounce up more quickly to lead the market. In the normal market conditions, we could buy the 'young guns' as continuous positive news flow will lift them more. I particularly like the boss at ADVFN.com. His tips are quite interesting and unique. I think he belongs to the minority group of speculators, who win more often than the crowd. Pipex is in the broadband sector, which is also another sector to take off again in 2004.

Only time will tell whether I am right or not. Be warned, these shares tend to have large spreads and they tend to be more volatile than the leaders. Be your own boss and make your own decisions, of course. And remember timing makes a big difference.

10th January, 2004: It is not a great time to watch this stock market. I still lament the time in 2003 when I was fighting the bear market to its deadliest and bravely invested my last pennies in the stock market at almost its bottom. I wish I had benefited a little bit more from my courage then. However, at today's levels, there is very limited upside to this market. I will be selling whatever I can in the coming weeks. If there is a major correction, then I will be looking at the market to see whether I want to buy again. For the moment, I am in a lazy sitting on the wall mood.

8th January, 2004: How time flies and another year has begun in great style. The stock market all over the world is booming. It just feels like 1999 the bull year but somehow I have been selling, selling and selling. I won't be buying shares at the moment. I will sit very tightly on my cash for now. It is just a crazy world where you don't know whether it will stop abruptly or not. Luckily, I have quite a few shares benefiting from this crazy rally, though at small profits. A profit is a profit. I don't feel like a big one coming just yet. You can only get a big profit when you have got in before the crowd and waited there for some time. I haven't had a good earner yet in 2004. But the year is still very young.

On the other hand, I am thinking about doing some margin forex trading, since the dollar is likely to be oversold at a certain point of time in the not too distant future. Of course, buying dollar against the trend is a risky move at the moment. You don't want to be caught at the wrong end of the knife. Have to wait until there is a signal.

On the share front, I would like you to think twice before buying into today's market, because there might be a danger that you are buying at a very top of a rally, which would be unfortunate.

What a year 2004 is going to be. All I know is that there will be major ups and downs and don't you just love volatile markets, ha. Be careful and make your own decisions.

2nd January, 2004:

Happy New Year to you all.

What a year 2003 has been and what a year 2004 will be. I have to admit that London Asia Capital was the star for me in 2003. Having sold the previous lot around 23.5 pence, I had since bought some more around 19.5 pence. The analysts are talking about a hippo market for 2004, with many predicting a bullish first half to end in a more dull second half.

I have just had a good look at the investment trusts. It is clear that implicitly the market sentiment is still very bullish about China. London Asia seems to have established a good track record in this little niche, which is worth following. The others like CyberChina, Enterprise Asia and EuropAsia seem to be also runs, though the last one mentioned might be better than the other two. With the 2008 Olympics in the background, the Chinese economy will continue to grow at an exciting rate. The appreciation of the Chinese RMB seems to be inevitable. It is a matter of when rather than whether.

I have cashed in some of my holdings over the recent weeks and now have some cash in my portfolio. Looking at the charts for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and FTSE100, it seems that the TMTs might have more upsides than the non-TMTs. It is likely that Dow Jones and FTSE100 will be stuck in a close trading range, going yo-yo in a small fashion.

I have long confessed that I am a loyal TMT supporter through thick and thin. I will continue to withdraw from the non-TMTs at a profit, if I can, at these high levels. Trading for 2004 should be light and highly selective, with a few blind bets, on regional markets such as China, India, Russia and Vietnam, for better or for worse. I still believe that the next bull run will be TMT-led, called 3G-Mania (3G, broadband and others). It may not come in 2004, but it will come one of those days. Hopefully, we will all be here to enjoy it.

11th December, 2003: Hmmm, I am not doing that great this month. Hopefully, the remaining days will be better for me. I should enjoy this year-end rally to the full and take some cash out when I can. I will be sitting on the wall a bit at the beginning of next year. Year 2004 is going to be a good year for shares, barring any tragic events, such as a China-Taiwan war, which is still very unlikely.

3rd December, 2003: The month of November was not that profitable for me. I had a good time travelling to Malaysia, Singapore and China. Well, I did some trading with little profit. I sold most too early. It just happened. Not my lucky month after all. Hopefully, December is a better one. We are still heading towards my target of 4,500 for FTSE100. I think this market is fairly strong at the moment. It is actually more difficult to trade in a bull market, since at the bottom of your heart, you would be fearing for being caught at the top. Sector rotation is key, I think. Some shares may not have caught up with the trend yet. There is never too much research in this game. I wish you all a profitable December. < BR>

28th October, 2003: The margin of error is becoming greater than before. This has been a quieter month for me, making far less money than September. However, I think it will be a profitable one, nonetheless. We are current at the bottom of the first wave, in a three wave run up to 4,500 for FTSE100. So I will be selling into the second crest and buying on the next dip and selling again at the third crest, which would be close to 4,500. I think anything under 4,500 is bullish. So watch and be nimble. Fingers ready and trigger happy. Don't be too greedy. I will be happy to make 10-15% profit in each transaction. Currently, I am mostly sticking to the 3G and Broadband area as well as biotechnologies. Good luck and Happy Christmas if I don't update this site again, as I might be going away again.

18th October, 2003: This month has started in some profit for me as the market rises to new highs. This should be a bull market run, so I think my strategy of buying on weaknesses or dips and selling into strength should pay off handsomely all the way. But there is always a danger of a peak for this current bull run, so be prepared and have some cash in hand.

Making money in a bull run is actually not that easy. The safest way is buy in a market bottom and wait for the tide to turn. But there is profit to be made at the moment too.

I got out of Cyc a bit too early this time, having made 50% profit. Anyway, I will keep an eye on any shares that are linked to China directly like EnterpriseAsia, Cyc Holding, London Asia Capital and Europasia, etc. as well as funds investing in developing countries such as China, India and Russia. I am expecting to enjoy another profitable month in October. Good luck to you all.

3rd October, 2003: Yes, it is still very much a bull market and we should continue to buy on weakness and dips and pick our shares smartly to benefit from this upward run to the year end, where I predict that FTSE100 should reach 4,500. I am still a net buyer, though increasingly there is a need for a few to shine to strengthen my belief in this market. I will either buy companies with big capitalisation or small ones less than 10 million pounds, which might give me some surprised one day on the upper side, hopefully.

Christmas is coming soon, so should buy some shares for those companies which would benefit from the Christmas bonanza the most. Happy Christmas to you all.

26th September, 2003: Well, when I looked at my fantasy portfolio and saw red again, I knew the market was due for a major regurgitation of the SARs rally. But I bought some more and are now suffering from my own greed. That is it, the secret of this stock market game: greed and fear, coming at the wrong time.

I still think this markt is more bullish than bearish. So I will be buying on dips. Fingers crossed, it is the right strategy. Life is all about doing the right things at the right time at the right place. Time to do some more serious work again, after my long holidays.

17th September, 2003: Guess it must be my birthday coming in this month and this is my year--the year of the sheep. I have really been in good luck for the past few days, when I made a little fortune out of a few of my penny shares. At the moment, it is really a difficult market and it is a tough decision as for whether to follow or sit on the wall.

Some chaps were gutted when I got in at Telewest at 1.7 pence and got out at 3.04 pence and they thought there was inside dealing. Well, at least, I am as innocent as themselves. I just got it lucky and got it triggered, ha. It is a bullish market in an uncertain world. Guess that is the norm for everything. Take your pick carefully and you can make money out of this market more easily than in the deep blues which had lasted for the past few years. Good luck. 30th August, 2003: well, I said all the right things in the midst of the blues concerning the Iraqi war and I invested accordingly. However, I was sent on a mission to China for half a year and missed the entire rally afterwards. That was perhaps the best rally after so many years in the blues and I missed it altogether. Not that entirely, as we still cashed in some small gains here and there. Well, that is life. You get some and lose some. There is still very much peace and harmony in me and my life, so that is that

I have had a good look at the rally. I sensed that most of the rallies were in the tmt camp, many have doubled or trebled from their pathetic lows. At the moment, the trend is still upwards for the small companies and tmts. For the big ones, there seems to be some sort of lethargy creeping in after the rallies. The best possibility for me at the moment is obviously another dip so that I can buy at lows again. At current prices, I won't touch the FTSE100 shares or the big ones at all. Good luck. Best personal writing of 2003:

5th February, 2003:Close your eyes, breathe in the fresh sea-salted wind on the white cliff, and jump into the bluest ocean where sharks abound...

I was busy this morning.

Having written that message about Shorters' Paradise (on III), I reflected and concluded that it was people like myself who are waiting and waiting to fish at the very bottom that is also adding the weight to the assault by the blood-thirst shorters. So I have decided to make a point at this very moment, by investing half of my pennies in the market this morning.

Ps Maybe, I am unconsciously deeply moved by Lord Intco's love for his bitch. The bears feed on hatred, worries, suspicions, doubts, greed and so on. The bulls are the mere embodiment of love, peace, understanding, etc. If we look back at the past three years, we should realise why we have been having this bear market for so long. Can you imagine the bitterness created by that euphoric bull run in 1999-2000 all over the world. In the developed world, people are bitchy about each other for failing to keep up with the Jones. Even the people in the street wondered why they missed such an easy gold rush, based on pure speculation, but no hard work. In the developing world, people were jealous about the bubble wealthy image presented by the developed world. Others hated the fact about the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the emergence of a single-superpower denominated global political and military setup. This is hardly the world for the bulls to survive, as they go starving of their essential food of love, sympathy, care, hope, dreams, etc. How often you say to yourself that it is so easy to hate than to love. One tiny dissatisfaction could bring out the worst of you while so much kindness is easily forgotten. Look at the divorce rate over the recent years in Britain and the rest of the world, just as a simple illustration. The taking-down of the Berlin Wall liberated much of the love people had for each other, between the two Cold-War camps. The TMT boom did exactly the converse, which brought forth the divergence, in which the child of hatred was born and the ensuing emergence of international terrorism and the century-old confrontation between Christianity and Islamism and so on.

Ps As Lord Intco concluded, it is going to take at least 20 years to patch up our disintegrated world, where peace and love can again prevail. I threw in my pennies to be metled in the pot of hatred from the bears. If every one of us did that, maybe something good will emerge from this pot and love and peace will triumph one day. With people like Lord Intco around, there is still hope.

FTSE100 today: 3,600. A historical day and a marvelous level only for the decided. 15th February, 2003: My luck seems to drain out lately, as I am going to make a major move in my life. Maybe, I will be luckier in something else, other than the Stock Market. Be assured that I will be watching the market and do the deals whenever possible.

Friday's rally is very interesting for Dow Jones because if it can break 8,900 in the near term, then finally I may say that we will be in a bull market. Maybe, we have indeed turned the corner. Good luck.

30th January, 2003: Watch out for this bear market rally. Stay out of the market if you can, because I think it has not hit bottom yet.

Hit my weekly profit target in one share today, Blazepoint, up 100% on the day. Well, I got lucky, just when I was going to write off this week with a zero return. It just shows that you should never give up HOPE.

I will be watching this market very closely, because it is certainly getting interesting. Good luck.

24th January, 2003: This has been a bad week in the office for me, having failed to meet my weekly target by a neck, despite the fact that PCM doubled up. The FTSE100 at near 3,600 is below that of 1995. This must be a tremendous level for index-tracking funds and investors, like Richard Branson. However, you can never get the bottom right. So be warned, you may only want to invest in this market, if your horizon is rather long-term.

I did some index tracking by buying a few financial shares, which showed some life after their reporting. Hopefully, next week will be a better one coming from the techs, such as ARM, ARK and so on.

Remember we talked about the double peak danger sign for Nasdaq. So I was right. If you sat on the sideline, then maybe you could continue to do so, unless you want to do some bottom fishing for the long run. Stick with quality companies and there are plenty of them in the market which has a profitable business and a steady dividend payout. For long-term investors, I think you should avoid companies with no dividends at the moment. Good luck.

19th January, 2003: Well, maybe we are hunted by the double peak scenario, the resistance is quite strong, as we talked about the other day. So you may decide to sit on the wall and watch for a while. I am most interested in finding out whether this leg down is going to be higher than the bottom leg last time. Let's hope it is, which will signal a bullish run-up form here on.

Well, I missed out major on Telewest. Still, I beat my weekly profit target by a tight margin. I got lucky on Telewest, Pace Micro, P&O and Cassidy Brothers and marginally on Pilkington.

I was right about actions in the telecom sector. And there is more to come, I think.At the moment, the only safe sectors to be in are telecoms and retailers, where rumours, bids, restructuring actions and such newsflows are keeping these two sectors really live and kicking. You just don't want to be with dead cats at all. Remember drastic falls often lead to buying opportunities and make money on the quick bouncing back, provided you keep your bottle and cool.

As for the mobile phone sector, I think the final cloud has been lifted, albeit negatively in the short-term. Buy on any weakness, IMHO.

I am watching the banks very closely, as they drop to really attractive valuations. But the doubt in my mind is saying maybe things will get cheaper from here on. Either you can buy for the long term, or watch for some disastrous falls and then buy for a bounce back. I have every doubt about this sector, even though it is increasingly becoming attractive in a medium to long-term view, particularly the dividend season is coming in February. Think, think...

For long-term investors, I think it will be a shame to miss the opportunity to buy shares on the cheap for tax-free long-term gains. I would honestly think it is time to buy that share ISA now (you can either buy a Maxi ISA for up to ?,000 or Mini ISA for up to ?,000. Buy it from a broker like Hargreaves Lansdown (belong to Bank of Scotland) and you can get reduced charges and an annual bonus. Well, I buy from them anyway. Their dealing charge is cheap at ?0 a deal. And feels safe for them to be part of a reputable bank HBOS, now. Good luck.

14th January, 2003: Just had a good stare at the chart of Nasdaq. Apparently, it is entering into a double peak scenario, which means 1,500 will provide much a resistance. If we do not take a big ride on some good numbers from some tech giants in this reporting season, then we could peak again under 1,500 and endure months of misery in the blues. Let's at least be hopeful. If you are nervous, you'd better sit on the fence and watch for the story to unfold. Once we break this double peak chart, we should have a more sustained bullish run. So don't worry about missing out.

14th January, 2003: It has been two good days for me so far. More importantly, I feel that there may be a rotation into TMTs from now on, as the none-TMTs simply don't have much more drive in them any more.

Today, I have added Aim Trust at 54 pence as my tip for 2003. This one has suffered the most with the downfall of the AIM market for the past three years. And its chart looks to have nowhere to run but northwards. Maybe, it is possible to see it doubled up in 2003. Watch this space.

I got a good run on Telewest, but missed out a bit on C&W. Well, C'est la vie, as the French say. That is probably the only French phrase that I really understand from the bottom of my heart.

1st February, 2003: Happy New Year to you all. It has been a lucky week for me. I got in with my weekly profit target at Blazepoint with some unexpected luck. Well, that is what is called pure luck. I think it has something to do with that black cat which came into my house that day...

Next week is obviously going to be an important one, with the to war or not to debates go to the UN on Wednesday. Still, I think at these levels, it is easy to buy on weakness and sell into strength with a profit target of 10% or so per deal. I have still got my index-tracking fund at my broker's untouched. I am waiting for that perfect moment, FTSE1000 3,250 to 3,000 and/or Dow Jones around 7,250. Let's wait and see.

Weekly Reflection

10th January, 2003: What a week this has been. At least for me, this is a profitable one, when I have achieved my average weekly profit target.

Two knives came down this week, Dixons and Britannic, both proved to be difficult to catch at the right price and the bounces were too small to be really profitable. In hindsight, both did not fall enough to merit a quick profit in catching them even at the bottom. Still, I quite sure Dixons has been oversold and will bounce up from its current 120 pence level, the lowest in four years. Not too sure about Britannic. The biggest merger story is Morrisons took over Safeway. Well, I was not in at Safeway, because it has been a bid target for the past few years. Might buy some shares in Morrisons on weakness, as I really like this company. Surprise of the week for me was Signet, which came out trimphing with a bright trading statement. I might buy it on weakness.

I hate to see that the FTSE indice did not move much in line with the upward movements with Dow Jones. Guess the Brits are just too conservative, worrying about the sky collapsing over their heads, while the Yanks will enjoy every minute while they can.

Despite the worrying things happening elsewhere in the world, I think the US indice still have some life in them. But the FTSE indice seem to be stuck by the line of 4,000, which has proved stubborn.

Next week, I am looking forward to some action in the telecom sector. Well, I have been waiting for the past year or so, ha! Otherwise, if you are nervous, either stay out or catch knives or invest in the retailers, which might be safe heavens in a turbulent world and it is hotting up with consolidation and rumours (Allders and House of Fraser etc).

5th January, 2003: Happy New Year, everyone. This is a new start for us and this coming week is the first one in 2003 to put in some real work. My strategy has always been nimble and switching between index-weighing shares such as Vodafone to knife-catching (e.g., buying shares on dramatic falls). So far, this nimble strategy has served me well in 2002 and I have beaten all my fund managers by a wider margin again. This year, I am hoping to do one better and push my capital gains towards ?0,000 for 2003.

In January, I am presuming that there will be significant market push for FTSE to reach 4,500 and Dow Jones over 9,500 and Nasdaq towards 2,000. That is enough to persuade me to put more money in index-weighing shares. I am looking for Vodafone to push towards ?.30 soon.

23rd December, 2002: Happy Christmas, everyone. What a year this has been. I have just asked my broker to give me a sum about how much I have actually made this year, except for the floating paper losses.

This is the fifth year that I have been involved in share trading. I think I have comfortably beaten all my money brokers. They have had another bad year, yet again.

For the year 2003, I am quietly confident that FTSE100 will try a high of 6,000 sometime. The main driver for the next bull run may come from 3G mania. It is going to take off, so never be detered by today's difficulties. The future is 3G. That is why I am recommending Vodafone and MMO2. I think both have a chance to double up from their current levels. As for Surgical Innovation, this is a far riskier share. With more risk, hopefully it might bring us more return as well. Another thing, watch out for Paul Scott's action group. I think he is gaining from strength to strength. Let's hope he has a successful raid on Dolly the Sheep.

20 December, 2002: I have just done my usual weekend chart-gazing. The Dow Jones chart seems to resemble that of September 2001, which means that we might see a strong rally to 9,000. More interestingly, the Nasdaq chart seems to suggest that techs have finally bottomed out. The persuading evidence is that the recent wave top has transcended the last wave top. For TMT believers, this must be a good sign for the future. The play on war fear might be wearing a bit thin in the market now. All that suggests, if history repeats itself, a near-term significant rally. I must confess that I am fully invested at the moment, the first time for a long time. All I can do is to pray for Santa to deliver a bull market. Relax and don't be stuffed, stuff the market instead.

13th December, 2002: It is Friday the 13th, which is lucky for some but not others. It has not been too good for me for the past two weeks. I think things are getting a bit slow in the market with very vague direction as to where to go from here. Generally speaking, this should add more uncertainty and hence more pressure downwards.

Still, knife catch is still an interesting game, whatever the general market conditions. But this week, I did not catch any at all. Well, in life, sometimes you get into the fast lane, sometimes slow ones. I think I will just try to get over this quiet time in the quiet and maybe next week will be better. Good luck.

The saga concerning Cable & Wireless is really overblown. I think this one will recover from its current low at 44 pence and perhaps go to somewhere about 60 pence, if nobody wants to take this over and do some asset stripping.

2nd December, 2002: Yes, I have been making some good steady money this year. Actually, there are opportunities everyday, for winning as well as losing money, ha! One interesting game to play is to catch the falling knives, i.e., buying companies on dramatic falls owing to bad news. Just watch your fingers, ok? One rule is that you have to look at the yearly and 3-month charts, to see whether there has been a stead decline because of selling by people in the know. If yes, then a fall on the day of the announcement of bad news to 40% or more should mean an immediate buying opportunities. So far so good for me.

I said that TMTs were undervalued a while ago (see the post below on 3rd Nov.). And boy, have some of them come back with a storm over the past month or so. Some have doubled or trebled. My own optimism was more subdued, hence my profits were in the regions of 20% or so for most stocks that I bought. Still, I am happy to have made some money based on my own observations.

TMTs are still very much undervalued, considering that Dow Jones has come up near 9,000 in such a short space of time. I think there is tremendous pressure for a dramatic fall. But Christmas rallies are always for Christmas bonuses. So you can never bet against this market, though I have kept 20% in cash, which is my largest cash position for the year. My recent best buy was Telewest, which has flown more than 100% over the past few days. Dilution is always a tricky situation to handle. I tend to make some money and leave them well alone (e.g., Marconi, etc). Good luck.

3rd November, 2002: There are still quite a few fund managers gloating about over-priced shares, and issuing gloomy views about TMTs. This looks like a good sign for making up your mind about this market.

I think the charts are indicating that TMTs are very much oversold, despite the recent rally while the non-TMTs may be due for another bout of sharp dips to fully digest the euphoria in the last bull run. One day, I hope soon, we will see a sharp divergence between TMTs and non-TMTs again, like in 1999.

Rotation is the key and timing is important. For now, I am still playing around those high-yield shares which have prices reflecting the pessimism of a potential global recession, such as Pilkington. At the same time, I will continue to dip into TMTs, which paid off for me at Trafficmaster, Xaar, Argonaut and so on. But I am not holding them for too long and being too greedy yet.

We need to see another leg down in the charts for both Dow Jones and Nasdaq to determine whether we are in the bull market at last.

Hold on tight.

Good luck.

20th September 2002: If you have followed me on III, you would have doubled your money on British Energy within the past week. What a catch to celebrate my humble birthday of 35. 35 years of an interesting life so far, I would say.

The market is going to see out its bottom, which might mean a touchdown for Dow Jones at 6,000. So be prepared for more volatility. My itchy fingers are getting ready to pour in more cash if we come closer to that point. Otherwise, I think I have sufficient exposure to the market for now. Wish you all a Happy Moon Festival, if you are Chinese.

14th September, 2002: I am happy to see the back of the Black Friday. At least, we passed that black week with little scar. I think the war on Iraq will present a buying opportunity for share investors on weakness. The worst scenario is for Dow Jones to fall to 6,000 or 5,500, which will be a fall of all falls. I can't really see that happening, at least in the immediate future. But one never knows how violent the end of the bear market can be. If that happens, I would be piling most of my cash into the market. Until then, continuous drifting in and out and keep staying in the market is my current strategy.

8th September, 2002: Hasn't been a good week for me, having only made a 20% profit on London Bridge Software. That was that.

The outlook for the market is rather uncertain in the near term with the threat of war on Iraq and possible terrorist attacks around the anniversary of September 11th. And next Friday is a black Friday 13th. So watch out. Personally, I think it is time to let go of the market and sit on the fence for a while. Ideally, sit on your cash for now, if you can. On the other hand, there might just be a relief rally post September 11th if nothing bad happens. I am still in with a shout on MMO2 and Vodafone which I bought last week. Good luck.

24th August 2002: I have been very busy if you have followed my comments on III. Made some regular money out of an interesting market. I think the general under-current for the market is more positive than before. The bull market is finally with us, at least underneath the skin.

Near term, I would be looking to take cash out of this market and hold them after the 11th September. One never knows what that anniversary date would bring. So it is better to be safe than sorry.

Strategy-wise, I have been following Fidelity very closely and benefited tremendously so far. The best times were when I bought at the same time as they did. Great minds think alike, ha!

I tend to be biased in technology shares, so I won't change now.

27th July, 2002: The great divergence between value and growth stocks in 1999 drove the TMTs to their heady heights and a glorious place in share investment history (never mind the post-bubble blues, you only live once).

Having gazed at various charts again, I think there seems to be a much-needed divergence yet again in the not distant future, as Nasdaq seems to be relative undervalued at this current level, while the Dow Jones seems to be massively overvalued, if history is any guide (e.g., a fall to 6,000 would justify its historical trend). And by the way, FTSE100 seems to be just rightly valued at the moment.

So if you have to make a prediction for the indices, here are a few reluctant ones:

1. Dow Jones to touch around 6,000 in the not too distant future;

2. FTSE100 to fall no further under its recent low of 3,900ish; so perhaps to rise between 10-20% from the current level by the end of the year;

3. Nasdaq to fall no further from its current level; so perhaps to rise between 15-25% by the end of the year.

Of course, that would be a rational world, which is very different from the one we live in, and more so from the one mirrored by the stock market. Everything is possible, it all depends on which way you gaze at these charts and how many glasses wine you have just had. QIQO. Have a nice holiday season.

21st July 2002: How time flies and kids are on their summer holidays. Played football with my son in the park, which was quite enjoyable, considering we haven't played for a while.

So a lot of volatility at the moment in the stock market. I still think one should buy on big dips (usually on the third day of a falling market is a good guide). Keep on dripping into the market could prove to be the winning strategy at the moment. It is to be noted that it increases your chance for making money if you buy when a market is falling, since the margin for profit (the price difference between that at the end of the dip and the end of the rally from the dip is really not that great at the moment.

Tip of this week is Mayflower at 71 pence, which is due to report its results on 31st July. It is an old-fashioned manufacturing company with an interesting innovation and pays a dividend. Some people are gambling on a techno-company called BTG at 262 pence. It is a mixed bag of tech innovations. But it remains a gamble. Nowadays, to be honest, anything above ? looks expensive to me.

Keep cool.

18th July, 2002: Chart gazing again (refer to my disclaimer per previous messages):

1. Dow Jones chart still retain enough similarity to that of 1998, which is so far so good. To convince myself that a major rally will be in place, the Dow Jones needs to form a breakaway triangle over the coming weeks. I will keep you updated on this one;

2. FTSE100 is definitely one leg too deep to resemble that of 1998. Its shape at the moment prescribes perhaps a period of yo-yo situation over the next one or two years. Ideally, this yo-yo should be between 4,000 and 4,800, which means that there will be little downside from here. But if things go nasty (you can never predict how nasty things can go, in the era of Bush Junior et al. v. Bin Laden et al.), this yo-yo might be between 3,500 and 4,500.

3. MMO2 chart conforms the established three-wave theory. So it seems that MMO2 might have found its bottom and will steadily go up from here, to nobody knows what height--just like O2 the lovely bubble.

DYOR

Ps I stick to my own strategies as of my previous message. I will buy 'bonds' in second-line stocks (in terms of popuarlity and perceived safeness, but with a relevance for our future) and leave them for a fixed term. I will target my momentum speculation on first-line stocks(e.g., MMO2, one of the most popular among private investors and perceived to be very safe and secure).You would probably be surprised about this, but there is a good logic in there.

One thing for sure is that never hesitate to take profit and never be afraid of sharp falls. Be brave and be less greedy is the advice for myself and perhaps you as well. Eventually, the bull market will be with us: which is Murphy's Law for all things.

17th July 2002: I have made up the following strategies for my own disposal:

1. I use half of my affordable cash to buy fixed-term 'bonds': This means that I select a number of companies and buy shares in them as if I buy fixed-term bonds, e.g., 3-year or 5-year bonds, in these companies. Just like we buy fixed-term bonds from banks and building societies, we put away the certificates and forget about them for their fixed terms;

2. I use the other half for momentum investing. This is split into three parts:

1/3 for buying income shares, buying in the lonely times between the reporting dates, cashing in on any rallies just for the sake of newsflow and dividends. If things go cold, I can always get the dividends, which should pay for the 'nasty' account charges;

1/3 for catching falling TMT knives, such as MMO2, e.g., I bought at 36.5 pence and sold at 45 pence, aiming for 10-15% momentum profit;

1/3 for dead cats bouncing momentum investing, e.g. buying shares suffering from profit warnings, like Anite and Mytravel and cashing in on any brief dead cat bounces (always get in the first bounce, never look at them again).

For the last two types of speculation, I reckon I need to be self-disciplined with a stop-loss system, since everyone know how dangerous it is to catch falling knives. One thing is quite clear at this moment: you can only make money by buying in falling markets. Buying after the start of any brief rallies will mean that the margin for profit would be too small and any turnround too quick for you to run for cover.

This market is not only character building, but also a good learning opportunity for us private investors.

Ps We normally pay the bank managers and fund managers to endure these ups and downs and blues of the investment markets for us. Now we are doing it ourselves. It has not been easy, has it? Keep cool.

Ps2 Guess we may have to wait for the end of the Bush Administration and the Blair government to see any light at the end of this tunnel of Summer of Discontent.

14th July, 2002: Well, you don't see messages like this one so often nowadays. Even your brokers have subdued their urge to encourage you to buy more shares, in fear of the split trust scandal, etc.

My current enthusiasm is based on my not-so-accurate chart reading of Dow Jones and FTSE100 (look at the 5-year charts). The charts for both Dow Jones FTSE100 mirror quite surprising those in 1998, and we all know what happened in 1999. So that means that Dow Jones will start a sustained rally from its current level 8,600 and so will follow the gutless FTSE100.

Maybe, it is time to sell off your-much-hyped flats and houses in the Southeast and buy into this market on the cheap, while finding yourself a little farmhouse on the beautiful Yorkshire Dale and enjoy life and dreams to your heart's content.

I realised that I made a serious mistake by entrusting the fund managers with the money I cashed in at the top of the TMT bubble, from the dismal statements I received these days. Maybe, it might be an equally horrendous mistake to dwell on the house bubble too long and fail to invest in this market at these levels. Well, only time will tell.

Surely with all the profit warnings and corporate scandals left in the open wound, investors these days should have a better insight to find the right ones to invest in. Buy the fittest and avoid the losers and the dodgy ones, if you can. Not so surprisingly, one can lose money in both bull and bear markets, if one does not choose wisely.

The choice is yours, and my current holdings on this one and Vodafone show positive gains, thanks to my daredevil purchases at 36 pence and 81 pence respectively.

In 'The Bear Book', John Rothchild gives some guidance, so here are 10 signals Mrs Cohen (a famous private investor) has garnered from that source, plus others during her reading, for the end of a Bear Market:

* Fear and despondency is really widespread

* Absolutely everyone is a bear; brokers, analysts, the press and media, and investors

* The selling at the bottom is broad based across all sectors, a process insiders call 'capitulation'

* Dividend yields are very high: 11% on the Dow Jones in 1932 at the bottom of that truly awesome bear market. In today's Financial Times, the dividend yield on the FTSE 100 is just 3.47%

* Price/earnings (P/Es) ratios are very low: 3-6 on the Dow Jones in 1974; 17.2 on the FTSE 100 (19th July 2002)

* Interest rates fall further

* The bottom might be heralded by one significant event: in December 1974 Burmah Oil went bankrupt and had to be rescued by the UK government, a shocking event at the time

* If there is no big trigger event for the turn, then capitulation becomes a process, rather than an event and can take a while to unfold

* Selling at the bottom tends to be indiscriminate with massive volumes

* There are wild swings in market sentiment on heavy volumes with prices rising or falling dramatically even on the same day.(quoted from Reuters.com).

14th July, 2002: One of the greatest wisdom that I have learnt from my university life is that one needs to flip the coin ever so often to see both sides of the story.

Chart gazing is an act of believing in history repeating itself, purely on a technical foundation. Having said that the charts resemble the charts in 1998, I have to admit that there is a sneaking feeling(ha!)that 2003 just may not repeat what happened in 1999.

There are several reasons that a bull market may not come this soon yet, IMHO:

1. regional tensions: P v. I twice (Palestanis v. Israelis and Pakistanis v. Indians); Koreans against each other; China v. Taiwan; America v. terrorism (Bin Laden et al.), etc;

2. retail investors' optimism: experience says that the end of a bear market will come only when all bulls are so down-hearted that there is none or only a handful of bulls left in the market. Looking around, there are still enough bulls to make a good fight with the bears (just read the bb discussions), so the bears still have enough incentive to drive down this market even further. Ironically, only when all the bulls throw in their white towels, that the bears will go hybernating too. But the bull won't do that just yet, without a few more fights down the spiral (small rallies once in a while);

3. global economy: the yankies are optimistic, but they are constantly hit by the threat of terrorism, which may disorientate people's and business' long-term visions. The Europeans seem to be more politically rather than economically motivated. The Brits are suffering from a regime which punishes the middle-class and the businesses, with an egalitarian ideology tilted towards the working class people. The Japanese economic recovery is constantly hammered by the rising yen, which one can foresee to go to 100 against the dollar in the not too distant future (it is the interventions or resistence from the Japanese government which makes the market speculators all the more incensed to drive up the yen). Africa is currently weak on its knees with many of its historical and current problems. The only bright spot is perhaps Asia. Until Asia come to the conclusion that it can sustain as a global economic power by its own virtue (in the format of EEC, but more economically oriented), its fortune very much depends on exports to the US market. The only possible candidate to be the trigger to pull up the global economy is perhaps China. Yet, it is suffering from power transition problems and its potential military conflict with Taiwan and an increasingly more hostile (China-watching, i.e., watch China as potential enemy approach to American politics)attitude from the Bush administration. ...

You can add a number of other considerations to this pessimistic scenario that the bull market won't be with us just yet, and I think it won't ever come with Mr Bush as the American president. So another year or two to enjoy for the bears, perhaps. Alas. Don't sell your house just yet.

13th July, 2002: What a great month we are having here in the stock market, with everything in the eye tumbling down and fund managers and government and the public bitching each other for the falling values of their investments and pension funds. And what about the accounting scandals that come one after another and Leeds United have installed Tel Venables as their new manager? I think there is a great fear in the market that things can only go worse from here. Alternatively, for the brave, this must be a golden opportunity to buy. Well, only for the very brave and you need to be very choosy about what you buy, as some companies still won't survive the current climate of corporate scandals and economic uncertainty. Buy the companies that you know will last this final mile, before the recovery of the stock market.

Tip of the week is Billiam at 0.5 pence. This one has a diversified portfolio, which should even out risks and the management seem to be doing a decent job there and it was launched well after the burst of the TMT bubble.

Have a good look at the telecom sector, it is considerably clearer now that all the ugliness is out in the open. Take your pick and pick a winner or two. Maybe a T&T rally will be with us soon.

30th June, 2002: That is the finale of the World Cup, Brazil are the champions.

Given the current market condition, Eidos (the developer of Tomb Raider and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire) is a good buy at 130 pence. It has enough cash to go into profitability and the games market is never so buoyant with so many different consoles. I am hoping it to recover to ?, before a takeover bid is tabled.

Dixons is another share worth buying at 190.5 pence. It has an interesting portfolio of products catering for a variety of consumer needs. Sooner or later, some more value can be unlocked by restructure this company into two different companies. A merger is also a possibility.

29th June, 2002: Having studied FTSE100 chart last week, I spent some time studying the chart for Dow Jones. If history is any guide, then it also suggests a rally of some sort from this level. In order to do that, it needs to consolidate around this level 9,243.26 for a few days, which would then bring about a bigger rally to a level beyond 10,500.

Obviously, this is almost bulltalk, indicating an end to the current bear market, which will be unbelieveable to many, including myself.

In a unstable world like this one, one cannot predict what tomorrow will bring. Let's have a wonderful World Cup final first and a peaceful 4th July.

28th June, 2002: Technically, a rally should come from this level. A goal-shape inspired rally should indicate a rally from this level to 5,200 (surpassing the top line of the goal) and traditionally it should double the goal gap, which should be 1200. So the maximum rally should take FTSE100 to 5,800 some time in the future.

But we are supposed to be in a bear market. A rally like that would mean the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market. Who is to predict such a bright future, after so long in the blues?

Obviously, when market improves, so will the TMTs. Encouragingly, the banks are now talking about toughing it out, together with the telecoms companies (e.g., Energis). So now we are talking. It is no longer a mentality of us (the banks) and them (the slumping telecoms companies). Finally, the conclusion is that we are in the same boat, fighting for survival. All that comes about after the greedy attack from some venture CAPITALISTS.

For banks to sit tight on their money when times is tough for TMTs is almost murderous by mis-intention. It is like in the TMT boom, everybody wants to jump on the band wagon, so a lot of money was actually mis-invested. Banks has much to blame as the companies, as easy money fools managers into false beliefs and illusions. Now is the time for banks to lend a lifeline to the TMTs and other companies in this period of the economic cycle (alas, business investment is at all time low!). Money invested now should be sound investment for the years to come.

Does that suggest that we should also invest more money into this market, at these levels? Maybe, only if you can afford it. DYOR and BYOB.

22nd June, 2002: Unless there is a marked divorce between the American Stock Market and the rest of the world, it is not looking good for the coming weeks. I think it is important to continue to hold some cash in your portfolio. In my opinion, it would be wise to concentrate on income shares (shares with a good dividend yield) which is perhaps the fad (and it will be so for some time yet). We are completely spooked by the T word, technology, telecom and terrorism. The real question is whether the world can divest from the American market and shift its investment focus on markets in Europe and Asia instead, which is a scenario not contemplated ever before. Well, the world passed by the second largest economy Japan for the past few years, and maybe the Korean qualification for the World Cup semi-final does indeed suggest a shift in global wind of fortune for the coming years. Asia is definitely somewhere where major happenings will take place and Europe will compete united with America and Japan. All very interesting stuff for country-selective investors.

20th June, 2002: It is time to call it bottom out and buy, buy, buy. If you had listened to me and held onto your cash so far, now is the time to go on a shopping spree in the stock market.

4,500 will be the level where FSTE100 will bounce back and go on an amazing mini bull run, zig-zag its way eventually to 6,000 before the end of 2002.

Alas, you have guessed it: I have got the World Cup fever.

The problem is that after the peaceful, sexy and negotiable Clinton years, we can no longer live with regional or local conflicts, which were the status quo not so long ago. Are we becoming more conscientious global citizens? Not really,otherwise we would have done more to sort out the Israelis and Palentines together. We live in the dark age of 1984, where terrorism of various forms (religious, political, military, etc)reins the world day and night. Suddenly after 11th September, we can no longer indulge ourselves in our Disneyland of dreams, shares, fashion, fantasies...We have come back to live the real world where there are unsolvable problems everyday. The wild fantansy of the .com boom and the blues in the ensuing years all serve to remind us that it was probably the last dance for shares and stocks, at least for now, where short-term speculation substituted hard work, patience, persistence and tenacity in the passing of timeless time for awaiting the fruitation of our goals in life.

Everything about this downturn is teaching us all a lesson: shares and stocks are a class of assets only destined for long-term investments, whose growth is based on the hard-earned success in the real world by companies through the cycle of global economics. It is the short-termism in recent years that is hurting this market so badly. No more sustained rally from deep bottoms, since the determination and patience is no longer there. It is this short-termism which jitters this market ever so often and ever so violently in recent times, triggered by every little disturbance in the world. For successful investors like Warren Buffet, the market does not exist, neither does macro-economics, as he and others choose to invest in the little seeds which will later grow into fruitful trees in years' time.

It is going to take years to kill off that sort of greed and impatience. So Schroder might just be right that FTSE100 will stay below 1,000 for years. The fundamentals have changed, as minority greed plus majority rationality had been replaced by majority greed plus minority rationality. The problem for the stock market is a problem for the human race in the 21st century. What have we progressed to, so far, and where are we going next?

There goes the paradigm shift in share investment. So next time, if you look at charts, you need to start from 1999 and no further back, since the stock markets before and after 1999 might just be two completely different animals. Charts can no longer help us, as history can not be repeated over different paradigms. We are charting into new territory here for share investment. So your guess is probably better than mine, and my guess is England 2:2 Brazil and Scholes to score the golden goal in extra time.

Calm down, when I say buy, buy, buy, I really mean bye, bye, bye to the stock market of the good old years. We together will create a new lease of life for this new stock market, in the post.com era. March on, England.

Buy Close FTSE100 Income at 18 pence (I bought at 16.5 pence). One would imagine that one day not too far into the future that FTSE100 will recover from 4,500 as at present. With few tech shares in FTSE100, the yield must be up, so this share is on a huge yield of 51%. No banks will pay you this sort of interest,ever!

Apart from gold, looking at the long-term, investment in green business and/or in the social responsible theme could be profitable when the global economy recovers and the global environmental situation worsens.

15th June 2002: Football is very good, but the market is deeply in the red. And it remain so for a while yet. Charts predict a fall to 4,500 by FTSE100 and a small respite and another further sharp fall. Well, in this market, you'd better watch football than catching falling knives. On the other hand, it is always easy to make long-term investment decisions than short-term ones, as this sort of stock market level won't last forever and one day we may look back and think that was cheap then, ha!

11th June, 2002: France is out of the World Cup, brilliant, ha! Well done, Ireland, I love the Irish spirit. Hopefully, England can quality for the next round and China can beat Turkey.

The market has gone bananas yet again with the Dow Jones shot up at the beginning, only to finish 128 points lower at 9,517 and poor Nasdaq finish at 1497. On any other days, one would think this is a good level to buy into the market on its lows. But I am fearing for the worst. The lower is yet to come, I feel. With the Bush administration giving the full play to wars and terrorist attacks, the world has now descended into a deeply disburbing period of uncertainty and worries. With nothing visible in the medium term, a lot of attention will be focused on income shares, with visible streams of cashflow and steady dividends for investors. These should include water shares, which have already gone up 10% for the past few weeks. More to come, I think. So please ignore all the growth stocks at the moment, concentrate on old and boring income shares, with a good dividend yield. Insurance and banking stocks will come under pressure, plus the continued weakness in TMT stocks. It would be crazy to gamble in this market, then again only the odd one out investor can be the winner of all. I still it is not a worry to buy share ISA at this level for the long term. Otherwise, it is really a tricky market to play with. So patience is a virtue at the moment. Hold onto your cash and wait for some glimpse of 'certainty'.

9th June, 2002: Football has been ok, the market has been going down and the world is still not that peaceful. In a world like this and a market at these levels, it is easy to make decisions for long-term investments such as ISAs and mutual bonds (e.g., Liverpool Victoria and MGM), which will surely be profitable in the years to come. It is however much more difficult to make any good money out of this market at all. It is all a bit of gamble, which should be avoided for conservative share investors. Learn to say 'no' to opportunities is something I am working on these days. God save the Queen and us as well.

4th June, 2002: My head is a bit dizzy with all the World Cup football and Golden Jubilee celebration. Obviously, I expected the market to fall, and it did all over the world. The tension of nuclear war is here with us all. And whatever happens, it won't be the end of the world, so it becomes a buying opportunity for the long-term investors. The game lives on, so is surviving for the human race. I think I need a good night's sleep after reading about Warren Buffet and witnessing Chinese's humble defeat by Costa Rico! Come tomorrow, I shall be watching football again, for now is the time to let the market get over its hangover by itselt in its own time. There is nothing one can do about it. The global economic recovery is slowly and surely coming in the coming year, so would the global stock markets recover in time. Relax and have a good summer.

2nd June, 2002: The danger of a nuclear war is still there. Even I don't really think it will happen, but it might just happen out of the blue, like 11th September. Religious fervour has already given the world a number of surprises to date, and perhaps the most unexpected is still to come in the years to follow. No wonder gold has gone up wildly, so does the housing market. The problem is that this is different from the Cold War, where enemies stand squarely to each other face to face against the Berlin Wall (so to speak). In the war against terrorism, one side is forever in the hiding and they may come between and amongst the other side. There is no longer a secure Berlin Wall to divide the two sides. The potential is that human race has finally got fed up with what we have achieved so far. A total destruction, like what a few had been waiting for, might be in the offering. This is how serious the problems confronting this era of our life are.

To seek world peace and prosperity for our future generation, we have to discuss amongst ourselves whaeach other, gold has risen significantly this year with some shares specialised in gold mining going up more than three times this year. This is amazing. A safe bet is with Merril Lynch's Worldwide Mining which has a focus on gold. It has gone up 60% since I booked it into fantasy portfolio. You just don't know when the uncertainty is going to end, and hence the end of this gold rush. To have a balanced portfolio, I think you can not do without the gold insurance this year.t the fundamental causes are for our current crisis. Of course, I am sure we will find an eventual solution to our current dilemma. But I can't see it solved with the current generation of global leaders and the methods they have adopted in dealing with such problems.

Sometimes, we seem to have triggered the suffering mode so that it is time to suffer for us human beings, worries, death, war, devaluation, threat, and so on. It is only evident that we look at our history and see that peace is something to be treasured as it does not last for ever.

That said, we can always immerse ourselves in our individual pursuits: jobs, shares, investment, love, football, drink, food, etc and leave the fate of our world to the politicians. In this way, at least we enjoy the free-rides available from the Global Commons, while it lasts. Or else or what else?

29th May, 2002: Hold your horses and have cash handy is my best advice to you at the moment, as the Dow Jones chart is pointing to a possible dramatic fall or a period of lack lust ups and downs in a tight range between 9,700 and 10,700.

25th May, 2002: I have really missed the gold rush this year. Because of the war against global terrorism and the resulting uncertainty with both sides playing hard balls against

3rd March 2002: I have been doing further research on Techmark100 for the UK Stock Market. In a bear market, share price does tell the truth behind the companies. Though financial analysts and institutions do not get it right all the time, given the length of this bear market so far, higher prices do mean higher-quality companies. Among the penny Techmark 100 shares I researched a long way back, only Lastminute.com has stood out as the overall winner and I got that right in theory (Yak!). Let's see how well this research on mostly non-penny Techmark 100 shares is going to perform over the next months:

3rd March, 2002

Techmark 100 Further Research Report

1. DCS Grp at 20.50 pence, recovery might be on the way and will report its result on 26 March. Brave up the devil in your heart and buy before result (BBR);

2. Diagonal at 95 pence,confidence ahead with dividend increase and maybe the worst is over for this one;

3. Domino Printing at 134 pence, has the potential to explore the Chinese market, which also has its great potential. buy on weakness;

4. Easynet at 147.50 pence, dangerously poised as the only survivor in the market against the falling giant BT, but at this price, it is like sitting on a sleeping volcano, given the perilous situation at Marconi, its major shareholder, avoid for now and watch closely;

5. ITNET at 227.50 pence, safe and sound, await for the market upturn;

6. Logica at 404 pence, the only worry is its potential relegation from FTSE100;

7. London Bridge Software at 165.50 pence, another strong survior. Remember the nursery rhym: London Bridge falling down, falling down...maybe it has fallen down enough at this level;

8.Microgen Hdg at 95 pence,time to get it at this level;

9. Misys at 288.25 pence, health is key to its success and get on board at this level;

10.Morse Holdings at 191 pence, remember the corporate cycle which entails the need to upgrade their computer systems every three years, so this one will be a winner soon;

11. Pace Micro at 294 pence, I want to have one of their omnipotent boxes at the cheap prices and hopefully shareholders get a decent discount;

12. Renishaw at 460 pence, the name is a bit odd but it is a niche player and lowerly rated at this level;

13. Ricardo at 396.50 pence, don't confuse yourself with QXL.Com! This one is an engineering consultant and a good buy at this level;

15. Scipher at 95 pence, risky but remain a screaming buy at this price;

16. Shire Pharmaceuticals at 525 pence, buy for the long-term story;

17.Smith&Nephew at 426 pence, I always liked this one from its ? days but missed this one badly. Still plenty room for growth and share price appreciation over the long run;

18. Spirent at 138.75 pence, one sniff of global economic recovery and particularly telecom sector upturn, this one will fly;

19. Staffware at 411.50, cheap cheap cheap with its niche products and blue chip customers;

20. Telemetrix at 133.50 pence, maybe the worst is over and get in now;

21. Torex at 746 pence, this one has the trend as its friend for the past three years. Hopefully you can get onto this winner at a lower price;

22. Weston Medical at 169 pence, risky but charting for a bottom-up. May require additional funding in the not too distant future, so buy at a much lower price is preferrable.

Good luck, everybody!

The key question is really whether there is any force to break out the current constraint on this market. Otherwise, it would be a yoyo market for a long time to come yet. Be alert and there are plenty opportunities about in this weak market.

Here (25th November, 2001), I stick my neck out and make known my judgements on FTSE Techmark 100 penny shares as follows:

1. 365 Corporation (8 pence): worth a gamble;

2. Alphameric (85 pence): avoid for now;

3. Amstrad (50 pence): well, has He run out of his tricks yet?

4. Baltimore (21 pence): too risky even for a reasonable gambler;

5. BATM (57 pence): tricky customer, might be worth a gamble on further weakness;

6. Bioglan (11 pence): avoid if you still want to face up to your wife;

7. British Bio (18 pence): still avoid, if you not already in there;

8. Cedar (24 pence): I am surprised that this one has not gone down yet! And the directors are not buying into their own company either, even at these prices. Hmmm, fancy a massive gamble and risk of losing your T-shirt...

9. Dataflex (at 21 pence):no commments;

10. DCS (33.5 pence): You'd have to shred your T-shirt first;

11. Diagonal (83 pence): You'd better follow CGNU out of the door;

12. Eyretel (91 pence): highly rated but worth following;

13. Horizon Tech (62 pence): no comment;

14. Imagination Tech (71 pence): strong buy, as risk and return is well balanced to have a punt on this one. Pick your moment and get on board;

15. Kewill (62 pence): interesting but avoid for now;

16. Lastminute.com (37.5 pence): strong buy as per my observation;

17. Merant (98 pence): old dog is rather dogged with its cash, hmmmmm, worth a sniff;

18. ML Lab (42 pence): This one is almost a private company, which is curiously fascinating. Worth buying at this level;

19. Nettec (12 pence): limited appeal;

20.NSB (34.5 pence): await for more recovery evidence. A lot of good news is already priced in;

21.Parity (61 pence): boring;

22. Psion (85.75 pence): I hope your pension is not with the Capital Group, who has been snapping these highly-risky shares recently;

23. QXL.com (3.4 pence): to be or not to be, it's better to watch;

24. Redbus (12.5 pence): It is so red that you don't want to be near it;

25. Redstone (1.3 pence): My eyes are red again on this one. The only hope is that someone takes this over for 2 pence, ha! Stay away from all Reds!

26. Retail Decisions (22.5 pence): strong buy on weakness;

27. Scoot.com (1.8 pence): Get on your Scooter and avoid this one!

28. Skyepharma (54 pence): read my research below a long while back, so I have been proven right on this one. However, it is becoming more interesting at the present. Worth a closer look;

29. Synstar (62 pence): lots of big guns supporting this one, but I doubt whether the good news is already priced in while any nasty surprises would be a total shock to the market. Overall, the chart points out to a good run north, if all goes well to the forecast;

30. Terence Chapman (53 pence): hmmmmmm, maybe things are not as good as it seems and when things are bad, luck is not always on your side, avoid for now!

31. Thus (58 pence): Remember a while ago after 11 September, I bought all the telecoms with parents and Marconi and promised to cash in when they doubled, well, they did, but I chickened out too early apart from Marconi. Well, sometimes, you just have to live with your unfulfilled greed and let things go. At these levels, these telecom companies may be quite fully-valued as one broker had suggested, yak! Still, a good run on Nasdaq will pull the telecoms up as well. So weigh up your greed and fear here!

32. Trafficmaster (65 pence): another one I bought and missed the run. It is like looking at your ex-girl friend (though that is a unfamiliar territory for me, ha!): a bit sour-grape feeling. I bought it because its unique set of assets along our motorways. For now, it might be fully valued, who is to say now?!

33. Xaar (89 pence): Last but not least comes Xaar from our penny tech shares list. I think this one is not too expensive and can double in a year's time. Strong buy.

Do your own research. Remember, it is your money not mine that you are investing (winning or losing). Email me if you want to discuss on these shares or others. I offer free advice as a free service to my own heart, ha! I may continue my research on Tech shares, as I can see more upsides from techs than the others.

Do your own research and be brave and make your own decisions.

This column concentrates on searching for potential winning shares to be bought, and less so on when to sell. You are advised to run your own stop-loss system or other systems concerning selling your shares. Always be alert! Good luck, everybody!

This was my research on bio shares which was done in 2000. It still makes interesting reading at the moment.

Adv. Medical Solns Grp(AMS): At a market capitalisation of 10 million pounds with 8 million pounds in the bank, this small medical company has been growing nicely through partnerships. Its directors had purchased shares recently to demonstrate some confidence in its future prospect. This one is quite under-valued in my opinion, and remains a strong buy at the current price level of 11 pence.

Biotrace int (BOI): This one has a market capitalisation of 11 million pounds at the current price of 32 pence per share. This one is supposed to be a recovery play, having had a disastrous 1999. Recent evidence seems to suggest that it is maintaining and improving its sales and profitability (yes, it is profitable!). With food hygiene increasingly an important and sensitive issue, it is certainly in the right sector. Worth a gamble at the current level.

Br.Biotech (BBG): This one is so notorious that it still has a market capitalisation of 153 million pounds, having fallen dramatically to the current 23 pence per share. This one is too risky for most investors, so avoid if you are not already in there.

Celsis Int (CEL): This one has a market capitalisation of 18 million pounds at 17.5 pence. This share is dangerously risky. It is only appealing in terms of becoming a take-over target. But nobody would know at which level predators would move in, as it is running out of cash fast. Avoid for most investors.

CeNeS Pharmaceuticals (CEN): This one has a market capitalisation of 68 million pounds at 62 pence. This share is well watched by the media, as it was supposed to be the star of 2000 by some tipsters. But it did not happen. Given the recent cash call and the technical weakness as a result, maybe there will be more buyers coming out for this one in the coming months. Reasonably risky, worth a close look.

Fulcrum Pharma (FUL): This one has a capitalisation of 6.9 million pounds at 14.75 pence per share. This one is getting more and more attention, and is possibly one of most interesting rising stars in the bio sector. Besides, it is growing while profitability. Strong buy.

Genemedix (GMX): This one had just moved up from Ofex. It has an interesting idea of exploring a potentially big market. But there are a lot of unknown quantities and qualities with this one. A bit of guesswork, so your guess is better than mine. Worth keeping an eye on.

Huntingdon Life Sciences Grp: Avoid at all costs to save your skins and your houses. Animal rights and human rights are too sensitive areas to be tempered with as far as share investment is concerned.

Medical House (MLH): This one has a capitalisation of 18.9 million pounds at 37.5 pence. With 85% of the total shares owned by the management and the business operated on the owners/managers?homeland, this looks almost like a family business, which is quite interesting. It has a cash cow to fund its own development and growth for another product, and it makes a profit. The shares may be difficult to come by. Strong buy.

Oxford Biomedica (OXB): This one has a market capitalisation of 118 million pounds at 68.5 pence per share. This company ventured into the brave new world of gene therapy. You need plenty of patience on this one. A weak buy at current price for the long run.

Proteome Sciences (PRM): This one has a market capitalisation of 79 million pounds at 86.5 pence per share. Apart from the market blip of wonder, this one has actually resumed an upward chart. The coming year may be the most important year for this somewhat volatile company. It remains a massive gamble if you want to invest in this company at the present.

Protherics (PTI): This one has a market capitalisation of 67 million pounds at 39.5 pence per share. A cure for Rattlesnake bites aside, this one has an interesting pipeline of products under research and development. However, there are some financial complications because of the debenture debt issue, which will dilute the share price. Hopefully, the sale of its computer division can be used to pay back the debt and resolve this nasty uncertainty once for all. Well worth watching. Up with events.

Provalis (PRO): this one has a market capitalisation of 42.8 million pounds at 18.25 pence per share. This is yet another recovery play in this sector. There may need to be more evidence for investors to see whether this company has finally turned the corner. Recent share price weakness may represent a technical weakness after the fund raising as well as a lack of specific news of substantial evidence of progress. For the very brave speculators, this may represent a good buying opportunity. A worthwhile gamble for the very brave.

Regen Therapeutics (RGT): This one has a market capitalisation of 9.5 million pounds at 18 pence per share. This one is a bit of a dark horse with a limited pipeline of products. The recent down trend shows that the market is waiting for further development to establish a trust in this newly floated AIM company. Maybe it is a good hunting ground for those who like to hunt in the dark. Stay away until further clarifying development.

Scotia Holdings (SOH): This one has a market capitalisation of 13.7 million pounds at 15.75 pence per share. After its recent well-publicised regulatory setback, a lot of confidence has been knocked off this share. However, the company, as well as its existing supporters, will try to run a damage-limiting exercise, which may perk up the share price momentarily. Uncertainties lie ahead. So avoid if you can not live with sudden losses.

Skyepharma (SKP): This one has a market capitalisation of 336 million pounds at 64 pence per share. Some analysts said that this one should go down to 50 pence (not much down from here) and others said that it should be worth 140 pence (not much upside either, given the huge risk involved!). Most investors would wait for it to bring in a significant partner before investing any money in this company. That would put the seal of approval on this company. Otherwise, stay away and don�t get caught in the wars of bulls and bears.

Tepnel Life (TED): This one has a market capitalisation of 27.5 million pounds at 53 pence per share. This one is a bit of a myth, and existing investors must have burnt their patience and their hearts out for that major deal, which had been expected since a long long while ago. Something must be wrong somewhere. Stay away, unless you want a risky bet on rumours.

Theratase (THE): This one has a market capitalisation of 9.7 million pounds at 37.5 pence per share. If you have any spare cash, put some into this exciting little company, which surely has a brighter future, than many could see at the moment. Strong buy before the results in January!!!

World Life Sci (WLS): This one has a unclassified market capitalisation (around 6 million pounds) at 0.88 pence per share. If you are fed up with internet incubators, how about investing in this bio-incubator for a change. Remember to invest a minimum stake for potentially maximum fun. A fun penny bet, to say the most.

11th May, 2002: A close look at the market charts reveals that there are two major possibilities from here for Dow Jones: either a major fall or a major rise, both at a magnititude of more than 500 points, next week.

If it is going up next week, then it is business as usual for us, a yo-yo market, with a slight upward trend, which is not too bad.

If it is going down next week, then we are going to witness the most severe downturn for share investors ever.

Run your stop-loss system now. Be alert next week, as it can break or make the trend for this market. Obviously, even in the worst bear market, there are winners everyday. It just makes the game so much harder for us. Fingers crossed.

Read the Financial Times. From the surveys of the global FT500 companies, you can glimpse some hidden potential for winners of tomorrow's world, Russia, Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, and so on. If you want to invest in your share ISA this year, don't ignore these regions: Pacific Asia, Eastern Europe and Russia. The matured western world will deliver some steady returns when markets improve. But these are regions which may reward you more handsomely with substantial returns.

I think I am shifting my current investment strategy ?. It is time to think again. Good luck.

4th May, 2002: We had another good run on Marconi. Every time, the analysts said that it was zero pence, we had the luck to make some money out of it. Lovely, Marconi, hopefully, it will survive its current dilemma. But one should never be sentimental in share investment.

Despite the doom and gloom, the chart for Dow Jones is looking up next week. It is hugging the critical 10,000 life line and I hope it will win this battle.

However, at the moment, you just have to buy shares with a life of their own. That demands a lot more research and a lot of luck too.

Still, I think the strategy of being paid in dividen while waiting is still a valid strategy at this time, and my more risky attempt at the yo-yo game concerning tmt stocks may just backfire on me.

Read my posting on iii follow the link below and then you know where I am at the moment.

27th April, 2002: Last week was a bit weird for the market, as it defies the chart prediction and went down again. I think the Nasdaq chart is definitely pointing to a big and sustained bounce upwards from here. Unless the Israelis are allowed to trigger World War III, then the market should move up from here. We should be encouraged by the growth figure for the American economy in the first quarter, which was an amazing feat really for the yankies. I might buy my share ISA in one of the technology or growth funds. I haven't done my research in that area yet. Intuitively, the name Fleming rings a bell. Also, one of our Asia funds has given us a 30% profit for holding it for the past few months. Having cashed out on that one, I still think Asia will continue to act the safe heaven for the global fund money this year and Japan will continue to recover from here.

The slump of technology shares really point us to asking an important question: what is next? Technology is about moving with or ahead of times, not with the past. With few new floatation, a lot of us are still being faithful to the bunch of technology shares which may already be suffering from being outdated. We should really be looking what is coming from the latest technology craze--the re-shaping of our brave new world after the dot.com era. Alternatively, from a life-cycle theory point of view, we need to look at what sort of businesses can benefit the most from a matured dot.com era, as the internet has become status quo in our everyday life.

If you fancy a gamble, I think maybe you are not too late to join the Surgical Innovation (SUN, what a code name!) band wagon. It is coming upwards and onwards at 4 pence.

20th April, 2002: I think the charts both say that Dow Jones and Nasdaq will look up next week. Just how or why this should be the case is really beyond my comprehension. I haven't decided whether I should buy any share ISAs at the moment yet. To be honest, recently the excitement of fishing in this market has left me completely. Maybe, it is time to chill out and wait for another time when I am more enthusiastic.

And remember, the World Cup is coming to us soon. I am really looking forward to that, since I will have two home teams to support in this tournament. My own prediction is that China will at least score a goal this time round and England might go as far as the quarter finals.

The really amazing share this year is Lastminute.com. I wish I had more conviction in my own research, ha! Anyway, at the moment, my conservative strategy only allow to make a small profit once in a while.

The budget seems to be well received so far, with us working people paying a bit more. I wish I had a pay packet like the premiership footballers, whose money does not seem to have anywhere else to go apart from enjoying themselves in buying posh cars, etc..

7th April, 2002: This weekend, we sorted out our cash ISAs for this tax year. And that is that. We are living in a rather uncertain world, particularly with regard to the Middle East Crisis. I won't be buying any shares just yet. Let's wait and see what happens next. Things could go badly wrong from here, in a pessimistic view. I am hopeful that eventually the internal community would work together to solve this problem. Like us individuals, we live by carrying our history with us. The tiny mistakes or problems here and there together would normally add to the so-called middle-age crisis, etc. The same can be said about the world we live in. The current crisis is really the accumulation of the unsolved issues so far for humanity. So the only to come out with a solution beneficial to the world at large is for countries to work together.

It is still not too late for things to look up from here. Fingers crossed

30th March, 2002: There are two possible scenarios emerging from here, if you study carefully the charts for Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Particularly for the Dow Jones, the downside possibility seems more likely than the upside one, which is also limited 11,000. In the former case, the downside could be very bad indeed. So be very careful now, if you still want to pick your toes in this treacherous market. On the other hand, with the new tax year, you can always invest your first available in cash ISA, preferrably with a building society for the benefit as members. It is always best to invest in the obvious while having a bit potential in the unknown. Nowadays, the carpetbegging campaign seems to have waned in. But never say never. Another convertion down the line, it might just hot up again. Also, as members of building socities, you do get some advantageous product offerings, like free insurance cover and member's bonus bonds which offer higher interest rates.

Having dispensed your first ?,000 for the new tax year, you may want to make plans for the year ahead. The housing market may be slowing down this year, so there is a chance to try your luck there. In this case, you need to watch the property market closely and have some cash saved up in liquid accounts.

The long-term stock market chart has certainly been distorted for the past three years and it has lost its convincing argument that it is a major long-term investment must which normally pays off handsomely over the long run. There are obviously other long-term investment opportunities such as antiques and collectables, gold, jewllery, art and so on. The case for share investment has certainly lost its appeal after the slump for the past three years.

There is always this challenge to put to yourself in going into business. I am increasingly interested in finding out the possibility in that area. No pain, no gain. So expect a lot of hard work and hardship in the early years, if you do decide to go into business.

One idea is to cash in on the World Cup this summer. I was thinking about making a case for China's first entry into the World Cup. On second thoughts, it might just turn out to be a hot flash in the pan.

Meanwhile, let's enjoy the Easter Holiday. For me, playing and watching football is always as good as....hmmm, don't quote me on that one. And do some research on potential share winners for the coming tax year. God bless you all.<

23rd March, 2002: On the way to the computers, I saw green shoots coming out on the trees and flowers start to blossom. It is Spring and time to enjoy if you have planted something in the winter.

Nasdaq is back to the level three or four years ago and still find it hard going upwards. You have to lament the power of human fantasy and extraordinary enthusiasm for the last bull run, which seems to be so long ago now. We have just come out of a unique recession of never before, and we are going to such recessions time and again. Our civilisaiton has to come the crossroad, needing to decide what is progress from here. Is it really poverty that is driven people into suicide bombers? What tragedy in the age and time we are in. That makes us live within perspectives of the world around us.

So the market has stalled again, a reflection of the human race at this particular moment. If history is any guide, we normally take one giant step backwards and then pershaps another or two steps forwards, like the World Wars and so on. There seems to be an inbuilt need in the humans to suffer and learn from some bloody lessons once in a while. We learn to be humble and humane. We are no gods, and never will be. We can only plan and work within our humanly perspectives. And mind you, sometimes or some of us do step out of the line once in a while and the world suffers from that.

My predictions for 2002 have not worked out so well. Biocompatible had gone up quite a lot and has come down again. Such is the nature of investing in biotechnology companies. I have rubbed my nose in BBG, so I am never going to try again there. It is simply too simply and less profitable than pure risks such as mere speculation or gambling. Murray Japan has paid me a dividend but suffered together with other income trusts. I am a bit miffled about that sector. I hope it will bounce back somehow. As for the FTSE100, I am still hopeful that it will reach 6,000 this year, because its chart does look with more room to go upwards than downwards from here. All the best.

27th February, 2002: Well, at least one of my tips for 2002 has worked out really well in the form of Biocompatible. Interestingly, people do not want to hear the truth from Greenspan today about the state of the American economy. Nobody likes the truth, it seems. At the moment, I am only buying recovery stocks which might take ages to recover, but with some certainty, such as P & O dfd at ?.07 and London Pacific Group at ?.37, etc. These shares are trading at three-year lows and yielding quite handsomely. I am not really looking for a quick buck nowadays. Better be safe than sorry, since it is really not a Bull market at the present. Be careful and invest for the long term. Who knows maybe the recovery will come sooner than expected, which would be a bonus.

26th January, 2002: Ever wonder why we are not making great money from this market. Well, no wonder, you only need to look around the world to find that there are quite a number of narrow-minded and stubborn national leaders at the present. We are not living in a world which is open to potentials. We are enduring almost a 1984 coming-true scenario. So whatever you do, you need to lower your expectations and be happy with what you have got. Well, that is a bit of bullshit about global politics.

As for the market, as I said before, it is range-binding or bounding, so not much great risk involved here and nor any big upsides. You need to do your research on individual stocks. I just bought a gamble on Energis at 17.45 pence. Well, it is a gamble. The telecom sector is really bleeding to a slow death. It is a game of who dies first and others may survive. This is a ridiculous scenario. I reckon there should be consolidations and more corporate actions to take out the excessive capacity quickly so that the fittest will survive. It is really in the hands of banks and financial institutions and a question mark on their guts! Meanwhile, you should still be looking for tomorrow's winners, hopefully with a good yield while you wait the recovery to unveil itself. Be happy and I really enjoyed the game between Chelsea and Spurs. And there is the World Cup to come.

5th January, 2002: Well, I have decided to change my column's name to Dr Who's Column. Just the thought of Trigger's broom for the past decade does not seem to bring up too much a smile to my face, yak, and my kids love mucking about with it!

18th January, 2002: Really suffering from a flu, so my eyes are a bit blurred, ha! I think the yo-yo nature of this market will continue. The bottom line for the Dow Jones is probably 9,000 and alightly lower later on and the top line will get lower and lower than 10,000 as far as the slanting declining line dictates. So this is a huge range to play with the market, until the economy finally turns around its corner. Until then, there won't be a sustained rally, I think.

To play this sort of market is actually highly un-interesting for those who want to make good money in the short term. Once their patience wears off, it is easy to get burned at one of the tops and sold out at one of the lows, if they do not go with this yo-yo nature of the market at the moment.

The way to play this market is better to play it by being paid, I mean buy shares with some dividends. Yield is a good soothing thought right now, and if it is lowly rated and has recovery potential, why not? Mind you, the last batch I bought, some of them have paid me dividends, but nothing has happened in their share price appreciation yet. But I will wait, while I search for others. I think a regular 10% profit is achieveable and reasonable in this market. So don't let your greed gets you.

On football shares, people say fortunes go around. Things have already been really bad with that sector for a long while now. Maybe, some change of fortune is due, of some sort. Maybe, something new should happen and a new story going around and some momentary uplife of share prices as well. I will buy football shares only to make money, not for sentimental values. With the World Cup not too far away, I think it would be interesting to tuck in one or two football shares just in case.

The one share that really bugs me is Amey. Every time, it is on my way to profit, it comes back to the earth again. It is a good share, perhaps not for me. My better half says that this one has broken its range and is on the way up. Let's hope she is right this time.

Otherwise, I will have a quiet weekend to wear off this little nasty flu, thanks to my boy! God bless.

13th January, 2002: Have you got used to 2002 yet? Well, it is another year, so we should be full of expectations for the days to come.

The AIM (Alternative Investment Market) index is near a three-year low . That is where tomorrow's Vodafone or Organge will come from. It is quite a depressing thing to think our belief in the future is at a three-year low at the moment. I think it does make sense to take a closer look at AIM shares at this sort of level. I will report my findings here in the weeks to come. Funny enough, I have spent the past hour or so on this research and ended up with no recommendations at all. Maybe, it is because I started from 'Z'.

I think Asia is looking better this year. Investment trusts in this area are worth looking at. China, Taiwan, Korea, India, etc are all looking more interesting than to the other countries in the world. Maybe, this is the year of Asia. Remember, good fortune goes around, so never say never.

The market seems to be waiting for the next dip to buy on weakness. We are in a yo-yo mood. In the longer run, I think the trend is up rather than down, unless something terrible happens.

Do you somehow feel in your guts that this is quite a bloody year to start with? Let's hope things get better over time.

Be happy!

Another thing, I am going to keep my diary here just for fun. This week is more about doing something for nothing, helping some Chinese students settle down in Leeds. I think voluntary or non-profitable activities are essential to any nation, let alone individuals. I think everyone of us should try to do something like that once in a short while, well, as much as possible. I am no Buddist, but I do find the idea of recycling goodness or else interesting.

All eyes will be on Argentina next week, not for the right reason again (remember the God's Hand Goal by...). It is going to be highly volatile yet again for a market already in limbo. The key test, for a chart-gazer's point of view, is whether Nasdaq can continue its uprise to 2,500 without much of a break from its current critical point. If it does, then it may be able to climb to 3,000 this year. For Dow Jones, to break out, it needs to go through 12,000 this year, which would be a tremendous challenge. From there, another bull run can be constructed. This represents a tall order. But what could be the engine for such a bull run this year? Maybe, the capture of Bin Laden is the answer, though the trail seems to have gone cold for now.

The difficulty is that the charts do not allow for further rooms of indirection, that is, the market demands a clear-cut direction from here, either go a significant way up or vice versa. I think if you are still in cash, it is better to sit on your cash and wait for the band-wagon to arrive, rather to jump to your pre-emptive and perhaps pre-mature conclusions. I know if you are a man, you hate the word pre-mature, ha! So listen to my advice, and continue your research, so that you know which ones to buy if there is a bull run. Interestingly, people can lose money in a bull market, which is true! Shock of the week is that Redstone seems to be in deal with Nokia. Hmmmmm...let's wait and see.

I am suddenly shocked by the fact that my boy is almost 8 now. Hey, got to get rich quick, otherwise who is going to pay for his fees at Cambridge University?!

When you do your research, think about this: there are only two possibilities from here, particularly if you look at Dow Jones' chart (all data, on www.ft.com). One is the total ruin of what we have achieved so far (whatever that might be). In that case, whatever we do will not affect the outcome (or the suffering for all of us) much! However, this pessimistic view does mean shares with high yields (high dividends) are more attractive as they may be providing you with a steady stream of income better than bank interests. The other possibility is the continuation of history. In this case, the paulse for the past two years should serve as a good platform for the way upwards from here. Following this scenario, the American economy will recover sooner than expected, and Japanese will sort out their banking problems at long last, and the emerging markets like Argentina will sort out their problems too in 2002/3. This scenario prescribes a research into growth shares and recovery shares. It is in the recovery shares category that I find much interest, because some of these shares offer both high yields and the potential to recover with the economy. One interesting section is Chemicals!